SF State METR 485 - Can U.S. West Coast Climate Be Forcast? (10 pages)

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Can U.S. West Coast Climate Be Forcast?



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Can U.S. West Coast Climate Be Forcast?

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Pages:
10
School:
San Francisco State University
Course:
Metr 485 - Consulting Meteorology
Consulting Meteorology Documents

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P2 1 CAN U S WEST COAST CLIMATE BE FORCAST Steve LaDochy Jeffrey N Brown and Mattias Selke California State University Los Angeles William C Patzert JPL NASA 1 Introduction The tropical Pacific Ocean influences local regional and global climates Its variability can be used to anticipate changes in the atmosphere on an inter and intra annual time scale Zhang et al 1997 Livezey et al 1997 The ENSO signals show prominence in seasonal and interannual temperature and precipitation records throughout North America Ropelewski and Halpert 1986 Stronger relationships show interdecadal variability Castro et al 2001 show how Pacific SSTs influence the North American Monsoon They show that ENSO effects are strong when in phase with the PDO but weak when out of phase That is that ENSO related teleconnection patterns with climate anomalies are more consistent when El Nino occurs during the positive phase of PDO and La Nina occurs during the PDO negative phase Gershunov and Barnett 1998 In their study of the strength of ENSO teleconnections with western U S precipitation McCabe and Dettinger 1999 also found that positive PDO periods tended to weaken the teleconnection relationships Updated standardized values for the PDO index are derived as the leading PC of monthly SST anomalies in the North Pacific Ocean poleward of 20N The monthly mean global average SST anomalies are removed to separate this pattern of variability from any global warming signal that may be present in the data Zhang et al 1997 Mantua et al 1997 Pacific decadal SST variability has also been linked to U S droughts floods and streamflow amounts Nigram et al 1999 Cole and Overpeck 2002 Pizarro and Lall 2002 Gray et al 2003 Pacific teleconnection patterns as shown by the PNA Pacific North American Index have been shown to even disrupt the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation signal in winter Mississippi Valley stream flow Rodgers and Coleman 2003 Corresponding author address Steve LaDochy Dept of Geography Calif State



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