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A Method for Physically Based Model Analysis



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WATER RESOURCES RESEARCH VOL 48 W00L08 doi 10 1029 2011WR010774 2012 A method for physically based model analysis of conjunctive use in response to potential climate changes R T Hanson 1 L E Flint 2 A L Flint 2 M D Dettinger 1 3 C C Faunt 1 Dan Cayan 1 3 and Wolfgang Schmid4 Received 12 April 2011 revised 28 October 2011 accepted 21 December 2011 published 4 February 2012 1 Potential climate change effects on aspects of conjunctive management of water resources can be evaluated by linking climate models with fully integrated groundwater surface water models The objective of this study is to develop a modeling system that links global climate models with regional hydrologic models using the California Central Valley as a case study The new method is a supply and demand modeling framework that can be used to simulate and analyze potential climate change and conjunctive use Supplyconstrained and demand driven linkages in the water system in the Central Valley are represented with the linked climate models precipitation runoff models agricultural and native vegetation water use and hydrologic ow models to demonstrate the feasibility of this method Simulated precipitation and temperature were used from the GFDL A2 climate change scenario through the 21st century to drive a regional water balance mountain hydrologic watershed model MHWM for the surrounding watersheds in combination with a regional integrated hydrologic model of the Central Valley CVHM Application of this method demonstrates the potential transition from predominantly surface water to groundwater supply for agriculture with secondary effects that may limit this transition of conjunctive use The particular scenario considered includes intermittent climatic droughts in the rst half of the 21st century followed by severe persistent droughts in the second half of the 21st century These climatic droughts do not yield a valley wide operational drought but do cause reduced surface water deliveries and increased



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