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TAMU OCNG 251 - Lect2(Oceano)-(Cycles)

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““I feel like II feel like I’’m diagonallym diagonallyparked in a parallel universeparked in a parallel universe””OCNG 251: OceanographyOCNG 251: OceanographyTuesday, Sept. 02, 2008Tuesday, Sept. 02, 2008Of Maps and BearingsOf Maps and BearingsSystems and CyclesSystems and Cycles1.1.Cycle ApproachCycle Approach2.2.The Water Planet and the Hydrological CycleThe Water Planet and the Hydrological CycleLetLet’’s Talk about Systems!s Talk about Systems!!!This isnThis isn’’t new! You use it everyday (It new! You use it everyday (I’’ll give youll give youexample)example)!!Formally defined and used: System ScienceFormally defined and used: System Scienceprovides a methodology for describingprovides a methodology for describing(quantitatively and qualitatively) the behavior of(quantitatively and qualitatively) the behavior ofcomplex dynamic systems:complex dynamic systems:ooQuantitative (that means numbers!)Quantitative (that means numbers!)ooMethod (science is methodological)Method (science is methodological)ooBehavior (how Behavior (how ““thingsthings”” act, work, react act, work, react……))ooComplex and Dynamic Complex and Dynamic !!Large and complex systems Large and complex systems !! interactions interactionsLetLet’’s define systemss define systemsSystem: a conceptual imageSystem: a conceptual image!!A system (physical):A system (physical):""A bathtub full (empty) of waterA bathtub full (empty) of water""A glass full of soda (bubbles!)A glass full of soda (bubbles!)""A lakeA lake""An OceanAn Ocean""Water on EarthWater on Earth!!Also (social-economic-political):Also (social-economic-political):""Population dynamics in South TexasPopulation dynamics in South Texas""Economics of Economics of Nafta Nafta agreementagreement""Politics of European UnionPolitics of European UnionIncreasing complexity!!Qualitative system description can be very useful inQualitative system description can be very useful inidentifying system components and interactions.identifying system components and interactions.!!Permits a first-hand understanding of the systemPermits a first-hand understanding of the system’’ssbehavior: overview of all elements of the system andbehavior: overview of all elements of the system andtheir relationships.their relationships.!!Stimulates questions such as: Where is the materialStimulates questions such as: Where is the materialcoming from? where is it going next?coming from? where is it going next?!!Helps identify gaps in knowledge.Helps identify gaps in knowledge.!!Can be used to infer Can be used to infer ““manipulationsmanipulations”” (alterations) of (alterations) ofthe system (e.g. what will happen if you change thethe system (e.g. what will happen if you change theleader of a country?).leader of a country?).!!Gives a basis for quantitative description.Gives a basis for quantitative description.Systems: a conceptual imageSystems: a conceptual imageWhen we provide a quantitative description ofWhen we provide a quantitative description ofa model we call it a model we call it system modelingsystem modelingSystems: a conceptual imageSystems: a conceptual imageMilk in my fridge: If I know the gallon is ! emptyMilk in my fridge: If I know the gallon is ! emptywhen should I go to the grocery store to buy awhen should I go to the grocery store to buy anew one?new one?••Household sizeHousehold size••Individual consumption (rate of utilization)Individual consumption (rate of utilization)••EtcEtc…… (if I don (if I don’’t use it, it will t use it, it will ““go badgo bad”” and I and I’’ddstill need to go some day)still need to go some day)LetLet’’s talk about modelss talk about modelsLetLet’’s talk about models ands talk about models anddo something usefuldo something useful…… (for once) (for once)You want to drive from CC to Dallas.You want to drive from CC to Dallas.How many times do you need to fill up your tank?How many times do you need to fill up your tank?What do we know?What do we know?!!Gas tank capacity: 20 gallonsGas tank capacity: 20 gallons!!Gas mileage: 20 miles/gallonGas mileage: 20 miles/gallon!!Distance from here to there: 412 milesDistance from here to there: 412 miles!!You have only half a tank fullYou have only half a tank fullMental models:Mental models:What is an atom?What is an atom?It is formed of sub-particles (an even smaller ones):- Electrons (negative charge - extremely small mass)- Protons (positive charge – large mass)- Neutrons (no charge – large mass)““Making predictionsMaking predictions…”…”Water scenario: Regional management modelWater scenario: Regional management model AquiferrechargeproposedPass through needsfor estuariesMaryRhodespipelineArsenic levels elevated above ambient levels by an order ofArsenic levels elevated above ambient levels by an order ofmagnitude, depending on the hydrodynamic regime.magnitude, depending on the hydrodynamic regime.Spatial Distribution of AsSpatial Distribution of As05101520253035404550ppb1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16Well NumberArsenicUraniumMolybdenumGround WatersGround WatersAsAsStdStdUUStd.Std.Hydrodynamic control: Hydrodynamic control: evapoconcentrationevapoconcentrationAs Mass Balance - Lake CC0.03.06.09.012.015.0AprilMayJuneJulyAugustSeptOctNovDecJanFebMarchAprilMayJuneJulyAugustMonthAs (ug/l)0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%CalculatedMeasured%Vol!!M/M/!!t = Ct = CiiQQii –– CQ CQoo + R + Rdd –– RRppAsAsLL((tt) =) = As AsLL((t-1t-1) + ([As]) + ([As]iiQQii) - ([As]) - ([As]QQoo))[As]([As](tt) =) = As AsLL((tt))/Vol/Vol((tt))Climate of (un)certaintyClimate of (un)certainty……GustavGustav’’s forecast was s forecast was ““spot onspot on”” 3-4 days in advance 3-4 days in advanceCritics say we shouldnCritics say we shouldn’’tt’’ act on the Kyoto protocol or even act on the Kyoto protocol or evencurb GHG emissions before we obtain confirmation of climatecurb GHG emissions before we obtain confirmation of climatechange from change from ““sound sciencesound science””Climate of (un)certaintyClimate of (un)certainty……““SoundnessSoundness”” of science is defined in terms of perceived (un)certainty of science is defined in terms of perceived (un)certaintyHansen, J. 2004 (2004) ScientificAmerican, 290, 68-77.Climate Climate ForcingsForcingsHansen, J. and M. SatoHansen, J. and M. Sato. (2001. (2001). ). Trends of measured climate forcingTrends of measured


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TAMU OCNG 251 - Lect2(Oceano)-(Cycles)

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