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GROUP PROJECT BRIEF

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Project Members: Erin Fisher Nick Kordesch William Kost Renee Lafrenz Sarah Nathan Project Advisor: Roland Geyer Acknowledgment: Ichiro Sugioka, Volvo VISUALIZING CALIFORNIA TRANSPORTATION IN 2030 USING SCENARIO PLANNING ON THE WEB AT HTTP://WWW.BREN.UCSB.EDU SPRING 2007 GROUP PROJECT BRIEF Introduction The future of transportation in California is uncertain, and the state faces a number of increasing transportation problems including congestion, population growth, and environmental impact. This project provides a framework for addressing these problems in a long-term, strategic manner. Other methods of predicting the future often fall short because they are narrowly focused and rely only on mean historical trends. This project uses future scenario planning as a method for government and business to prepare for uncertainty by considering a wide range of future possibilities. Methodology The primary goal of the scenario planning method is to identify and organize future uncertainties, and in doing so, to create a framework for understanding the implications of those uncertainties. Scenario planning typically uses two drivers to address uncertainties. Drivers are defined as the main forces that effect change within the studied system. This project uses economic growth and environmental priority as its two drivers. Drivers can be visualized as a set of axes, as seen in the figure below, where each quadrant represents a scenario. The California transportation system is described through a set of system variables. From the current states (CS) of these variables and their historic trends, a business-as-usual (BAU) projection is made for the year 2030. For each variable, four possible future states are obtained by using the drivers to deviate from the BAU projection, as shown in the figure below. This creates the quantitative skeleton for our four scenarios, which are then fleshed out with narrative descriptions. Results For each of the 74 system variables, we determined the current state and calculated values for the BAU projection and the four possible future states (one for each scenario). Here are two examples of the results: Total Registered Vehicles0 50 100 150 200#4#3#2#1BAUCSMillions of Vehicles By analyzing and comparing the results, we can begin to uncover the story of each scenario, which is then expanded upon in the qualitative descriptions. GHG Emissions0 200 400 600 800 1000#4#3#2#1BAUCSMMT CO2 Equiv. Current State Future State Business-as-Usual #1 #2 #3 #4 Future State Future State Future State #1 – High Env. Priority, High Econ. Growth #2 – Low Env. Priority, High Econ. Growth #3 – Low Env. Priority, Low Econ. Growth #4 – High Env. Priority, Low Econ. Growth Environmental Priority Axis Economic Growth AxisScenario Planning SPRING 2007 2 Scenario 1: Green is Golden • Highly mobile, highly automated society. • Citizens strive for “green” status. • Transport activity is subject to a carbon tax. Almost every part of life in California is now regulated for eco-efficiency. California’s transportation system has been re-structured to meet the high consumption demands of economic success and stringent environmental protection laws. Business in California has flourished by meeting the demand for low emission vehicles and other green technology. Californians still have a high level of mobility, as long as they travel according to optimized travel times and modes. The distribution of “transport cards” has replaced drivers’ licenses as standard issue identification. The transport cards maintain a digital record of each citizen’s carbon footprint, for which they are taxed at the end of the year. Fuel demand has been met by the introduction of an array of energy sources that are domestic, clean, and renewable, while emitting almost zero greenhouse gases. The replacement of old vehicles has become requisite by government mandate. Cars are still the most popular mode of transportation—for the middle and upper class who can afford the low carbon technology and taxes. Public transit plays a major role in moving people around, but to the chagrin of the state government, is under-utilized. Scenario 2: Convenience Trumps • Transportation channels near maximum capacity • Commute is part of work day; extreme multitasking. • Luxurious lifestyles, several single purpose vehicles • Xxx Summarize narrative Summarize nar California is very isolated as societal trends focus on personal freedom and prosperity, at the expense of community and environmental concerns. People and businesses continue to migrate to the state thanks to government deregulation and financial security, resulting in high levels of technological advances and reduced unemployment. The transportation system is stressed and people opt to respond instead of waiting for the ineffectual and inefficient government to intervene. In order to be time-efficient, commuters purchase vehicles with built-in workspaces and hire drivers to enable themselves to multi-task. Businesses also organize shuttle pools to offer alternatives to the crowded and degraded public transportation means. Often, the wealthy hire helicopter taxies to bypass road and rail traffic altogether. Homes, workplaces and shopping areas are spread out and continue to expand. This trend has opened up a market for travel easements; technologies that address traffic avoidance, telecommuting, audiovisual, comfort, and air filtration needs are of particular importance. Environmental quality has become a low priority due to a lack of immediate urgency. Joe’s commute Joe wakes up in his suburban condo to the smell of coffee from the café downstairs. He is up just in time to make the 8a.m. commute shift. It is his turn to drive the carpool. He inserts his transport card into the dash console and drives to the usual meeting spot. On the way to work, they have to pass by old neighborhoods that have not made the change to new efficient technology. He looks at the new light rail system with pride, as his firm


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