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Epsy 8271 Reflection Paper for Week 3 Jihoon RyooTversky, A. and Kahneman, D. (1983). Extentional Versus Intuitive Reasoning: The Conjunction Fallacy in Probability Judgment, Psychological Review, 90, 293-315. The experimental design helps me understand the conjunction fallacy. Authors’ assertion that the conjunction fallacy appears naïve, informed and sophisticated groups can be cleared through their experimental design. In addition, the various studies with same question are helpful. Sub-section, Fallacies and Misunderstandings, gives more sense in comparison even though the dividing line between them is not always clear as mentioned. Section, Extensional Cues, gives kind of direction to how statistics educators can implement the solution in teaching statistics. Overall, the messages from authors are clearer to me than previous articles. One of limitations is reporting results. Most results are given as descriptive statistics while the more detailed comparison may be given. Simple statistics indicates the difference clearly but sometimes, those descriptive statistics do not help much, to see the group differences. One other is that authors do not give suggestion to overcome the fallacy for sophisticated group and for naïve and/or informed groups to get reasoning by comparing fallacy and misunderstanding. That may not be a limitation but what statistics educators study. Along with the second limitation, I would like to discuss about the following idea: If we consider naïve group == introductory statistics, informed group == intermediate statistics, and sophisticated group == advanced statistics, can we find solutions to overcome the conjunction fallacy according to each group? What other factors, like extensional cues, can help people avoid the conjunction fallacy?Epsy 8271 Reflection Paper for Week 3 Jihoon RyooKoehler, J.J. (1996). The base rate fallacy reconsidered: Descriptive, normative and methodological challenges. Behavioral and Brain Science 19(1): 1-53. This article provides ways of thinking about fallacies. Also it partially answered clues to avoid base rate fallacy. As mentioned, the base rate fallacy may not be evaluated as right/wrong without connection of how people make a decision. The most interesting part was that heuristic theory is not the main issue in the fallacy. Instead, topics (or questions) themselves impose causes of fallacy, I agree. The concepts and objects discussed are both wide and deep, which helps me understand clearly. Even though author explains the individual difference or variation in the base rate fallacy, it would be great to give rough classification of people according to how they struggle with the base rate fallacy as Tversky and Kahneman did the previous


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U of M EPSY 8271 - Reflection Paper

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