More on Migration and Immigration 1. Review life table survival methods 2. Census survival methods 3. Migration and life tables – migration expectancy 4. Migration theory - very briefly5. Differential migration 1Problem of under/overestimation 1. Net immigration country (forward survival) a. P0 understates exposure to risk of death (no deaths to immigrants) b. P1- sP0 thus understates immigration 2. Net emigration country (forward survival) a. P1 overstates exposure to risk of death (assuming immigrants exposed to death rates for full period – not true) b. P1- sP0 thus overstates immigration 3Census survival method 1. Very straightforward xP2. 0xnxxPCSR+= 3. n is the duration between censuses 4. Use national data (unaffected by internal migration) 5. Need to adjust for intercensal immigration/emigration 6. Elderly dealt with in same way as above 7. Infants require info on births 5Comparison of methods – an example 30-34 year-old Japanese men in 1995 Census Year 1995 2000 Age 30-34 35-39Pop. 4,034,652 4,025,226IM 41,384OM 48,979Lx 489,836 487,486Survival ratios Life table 0.995202 Census 0.999541 Can see that it doesn’t matter all that much in case like this where immigration is limited and data are good 6Estimates of net immigration - example Life table survival Forward survival=4,025,226-(4,034,652*0.99520)=9,930 Reverse survival=(4,025,226/0.99520)- 4,034,652=9,978 Average=(9,930+9,978)/2=9,954 Census survival Forward survival=4,025,226-(4,034,652*0.999541)=7,572 Reverse survival=(4,025,226/0.999541)- 4,034,652=7,576 Average=(7,572+7,576)/2=7,574 7Limitations 1. Focus on net migration – obscures direction of flow 2. Ignores births and deaths to immigrants/migrants a. basically assume no deaths and no births to migrants 3. Ignores illegal immigration 4. Obscures inter-census migration 89 Why do people migrate/immigrate? Simple push-pull model 1. Push – lack of opportunities, overcrowding, war, famine, persecution, cost 2. Pull – better jobs/opportunities, more space, taxes, climate, political/religious freedom 3. Demographic “balkanization” a. role of immigration policy, immigrant economies, and job competition 4. Gender differencesMain reason for last emigration from country of origin by sex, per sending country 8Migration streams and “Chain Migration” 1) Immigrant enclaves – social networks 2) Family-based immigration – “sponsors”
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