Climate VariabilityNormal equatorial flowVertical normal flowENSO disruption of flowVertical ENSO flowNormal vs. enso pressuresAtmospheric feedback mechanismsHuman contributions to climate changeCarbon dioxideCarbon cycle—gigatons and exchange of carbon per yearGreenhouse gasesCarbon DioxideAtmospheric Carbon dioxide trendHydrocarbon CO2 emission trendCO2 emissionsUS energy useIncrease in surface temperatureTemperature trend 30 yearsTemperature trend 150 yearsNorthern Hemisphere surface temperature variationTemperature Trend 2000 yearsTemperature Trend 12,000 YearsTemperature trend 450,000 yearsTemperature trend 5,000,000 yearsTemperature Trend 65,000,000 yearsTemperature trend 500,000,000 yearsTemperature ChangeOther greenhouse gasesCarbon Dioxide-Water systemRice paddy fieldOzone HoleSea Ice Breakup at AntarcticaIncrease in surface temperatureSurface warmingPrecipitation changeDocumented sea level risePredicted Sea Level RiseShoreline shift with sea level riseImplication of sea level riseMitigationCurrent nuclear plant capabilities by countryNuclear powerWind PowerGeothermalGeothermalGeothermalGeothermalGeothermalTidal LagoonGrand Coulee DamWave energyBiomassEl Nino animation1Climate VariabilityEl Niño-Southern OscillationHuman-caused climate changeAlternative Energy sourcesNormal equatorial flowVertical normal flow ENSO disruption of flowVertical ENSO flow Normal vs. enso pressures2Atmospheric feedback mechanismsHuman contributions to climate change•Fire• Deforestation– Agriculture– Overgrazing• Cities– Heat island– Particulates• Carbon dioxideCarbon dioxide• Sources– Volcanic gases– Respiration– Decay– Combustion of carbon compounds• Removing fixation organisms decreases removal from atmosphere– Forests: tropical and temperateCarbon cycle—gigatons and exchange of carbon per yearGreenhouse gases• Transparent to visible light• Opaque to re-emitted heat energy• Carbon dioxide is powerful greenhouse gasCarbon Dioxide• Human-caused increase in CO2– From 280 ppm to 380 ppm in 200 years– Increases plant vigor—negative feedback• Carbon ‘reservoirs’– Dissolve in ocean– Dissolution of carbonate minerals– Sinking of carbonate skeletons, tests3Atmospheric Carbon dioxide trendHydrocarbon CO2emission trendCO2emissionsa. 7 Gt→10 Gt→5 Gt• Curb carbon fuel use• Reforestationb. +0.7%/yr→13Gt• Modest pop. growthc. 7Gt→17Gt→decline• Rapid pop. growth• Variety of sourcesd. 7Gt→28Gt by 2080• Rapid pop. growth• Fossil fuel useUS energy useIncrease in surface temperature• Methane increase– From agriculture– From warming of permafrost (but more formed on sea floor, causing reduction?)• Ozone depletion allowing more energy to reach Earth’s surface• Variance in solar intensity• Positive feedback mechanisms– Albedo decline results in warming– Increased temperature causes more rainfall and reduces iron fertilization of seaTemperature trend 30 yearshttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Global_average_temperature Red and green are trends predicted from satellite measurements4Temperature trend 150 yearsNorthern Hemisphere surface temperature variationTemperature Trend 2000 yearshttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Global_average_temperatureTemperature Trend 12,000 Yearshttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Global_average_temperatureTemperature trend 450,000 years• Curves of reconstructed temperature at two locations in Antarctica and a global record of variations in glacial ice volume. Today's date is on the left side of the graph http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Global_average_temperatureTemperature trend 5,000,000 yearshttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Global_average_temperature5Temperature Trend 65,000,000 yearshttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Geologic_temperature_recordTemperature trend 500,000,000 yearshttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Geologic_temperature_recordTemperature ChangeOther greenhouse gases• Water vapor• Methane• Chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs)• Nitrogen oxidesCarbon Dioxide-Water system• ↑CO2 →↑T →↑evaporation →↑T• ↑evaporation →↑cloud cover, albedo→↓T• Positive outweighs negative feed backRice paddy field6Ozone Hole Sea Ice Breakup at AntarcticaIncrease in surface temperature• Sea level rise• Shift in climate zones• Increased intensity of cyclones: both tropical and midlatitudeSurface warminghttp://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/Library/GlobalWarmingUpdate/global warmingupdate5.htmlPrecipitation changehttp://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/Library/GlobalWarmingUpdate/global_warming_update6.htmlDocumented sea level rise7Predicted Sea Level RiseShoreline shift with sea level riseImplication of sea level riseMitigation• Reduce fossil fuel use• Alternative fuels– Nuclear power– Renewable sources– Geothermal– Water power• Plants – Forests: reduce logging, plant trees– Algae: fertilize sea removes CO2– Biomass energy sourcesCurrent nuclear plant capabilities by country• 437 nuclear power reactors in operation in 30 countries. These reactors supply about 15.2% of the world’s electricity• France depends on nuclear power for 78% of its electricity supply. In Japan the figure is 30%. • Emits only 1–6 grams of carbon equivalent per kilowatt-hour. This is about the same negligible emission rate as wind and hydropower http://www.iaea.org/NewsCenter/Statements/2007/ebsp2007n011.htmlNuclear power• Safety utmost concern– Well designed plants with redundant safety mechanisms installed– Well constructed and continual inspection• Determine method of dealing with waste– Deep burial popular but short-sighted– recycle or breed to short-half-life substances more reasonable– Rockets to space seems dangerous8• Building for passive Sun heating• Photovoltaic and Water heating also incorporated• Note operable skylight for cooling• http://www.earthship.com/staticpages/index.php?page=sale&osCsid=e2e983564ec7a5b9921a71236bed60c8WindPower• http://www.bergey.com/Geothermalhttp://geothermal.marin.org/GEOpresentation/sld012.htmGeothermalhttp://geothermal.marin.org/GEOpresentation/sld045.htmGeothermalBrady Hot Springs, northern Nevada, dries onions for Burger Kinghttp://geothermal.marin.org/GEOpresentation/sld087.htmGeothermalReykjavik in the 1930shttp://geothermal.marin.org/GEOpresentation/sld094.htm9GeothermalReykjavik todayhttp://geothermal.marin.org/GEOpresentation/sld095.htm Tidal Lagoon•
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