Chapter 12: Decision MakingTry It!Try It AnswersDecision MakingClassical Decision TheoryHoward’s DilemmaSubjective Utility TheorySatisficingElimination by AspectsHeuristics Influencing Decision MakingRepresentativeness HeuristicSlide 12Base-rate InformationSlide 14Gamblers FallacyAvailability HeuristicSlide 17Making DecisionsSchwartz (1991)Anchoring HeuristicAnchoring-and-AdjustmentSlide 22Car for SaleOverconfidenceTry it again…Predict your past answerIllusory CorrelationsDemonstration- Future eventsDunn & Story (1991)Slide 29Hindsight Bias“As If” HeuristicConfirmation BiasSlide 33Slide 34Slide 35FramingSample ScenarioRönnlund, et.al. ResultsSymbolic ComparisonSymbolic Distance EffectCongruity EffectMental RepresentationsChapter 13: Human IntelligenceWhat Do You Consider Intelligence?Intelligence Is…Emotional IntelligenceSocial IntelligenceHistorical TrendsSlide 49Types of items on the Stanford-BinetWechsler Intelligence ScalesTypes of Items on the WechslerNature, Nurture, or Both?Nature and NurtureConfoundsFactor AnalysisFactor Analysis MatrixNumber of Factors in the Structure of IntelligenceSpearman’s “g” FactorThurstone’s 7 Primary Mental AbilitiesGuilfordCattell’s Fluid and Crystallized IntelligenceHistorical Trends & IntelligenceInformation Processing & IntelligenceInspection Time DemonstrationInspection Time and IQIntelligence and Other ProcessesWorking Memory & IntelligenceComponential AnalysisSternberg’s FindingsContextualist View of IntelligenceEvidence Supporting Cultural InfluencesGardner’s Multiple IntelligencesGardner’s TheoryChapter 12: Decision MakingJoel CooperUniversity of UtahTry It!•Write your name on a piece of paper and indicate the truth of the following statements–1 means you are sure it is true, 10 means you are sure it is false Truth Rating1. Martin Luther King was 39 when he died. 2. The gestation period of an Asian elephant is 225 days. 3. The earth is the only planet in the solar system that has one moon. 4. The number of lightning strikes in the United states per year is 25 million. 5.The Rhöne is the longest river in Europe. Collect the sheets.Try It Answers•Martin Luther King was 39 when he died•The gestation period of an Asian elephant is not 225 days--It is 645 days•The earth is the only planet in the solar system that has one moon. False, Pluto also has one moon•The number of lightning strikes in US is approximately 25 million •The Rhöne is not the longest river in EuropeDecision Making•2 DM models–Prescriptive models–Descriptive models•Cognitive psychologists are interested in how people actually make decisionsClassical Decision Theory•Assumptions –All options known–Pros/Cons understood–Rationally chose–Goal: maximize valueHoward’s Dilemma•Thagard & Milgram (1995) “An eminent philosopher of science once encountered a noted decision theorist in a hallway at their university. The decision theorist was pacing up and down, muttering, ‘What shall I do? What shall I do?’‘What's the matter, Howard?’ asked the philosopher.Replied the decision theorist, ‘It's horrible, Ernest I've got an offer from Harvard and I don't know whether to accept it.’‘Why Howard,’ reacted the philosopher, ‘you're one of the world's great experts on decision making. Why don't you just work out the decision tree, calculate the probabilities and expected outcomes, and determine which choice maximizes your expected utility?’With annoyance, the other replied, ‘Come on, Ernest. This is serious.’ ”Subjective Utility Theory•Goal –Seek pleasure and avoid pain–Decision utility is subjectiveSatisficing•Just good enough •Term introduced by Herbert A. Simon in his Models of Man 1957 –Bounded rationalityElimination by Aspects•Tversky (1972)–Start w/ many options–Determine the most important attribute –select a cutoff value for that attribute–All alternatives below cutoff are eliminated–Repeat until one remainsHeuristics Influencing Decision Making•Representativeness•Availability•Anchoring & adjustment •Overconfidence•Illusory correlation•Hindsight bias•As if•Confirmation Bias•Framing•Mental RepresentationRepresentativeness HeuristicJudgments strategy in which we make estimates on how similar (or representative) an event is to its population.Coin toss: Which is more representative?HHHHHTTTTTHTHTHTTHHTRepresentativeness HeuristicFrank is a meek and quiet person whose only hobby is playing chess. He was near the top of his college class and majored in philosophy. Is Frank a librarian or a businessman?Consistent with librarian stereotype, but there are many more businessmen, so base rates make it much more likely that Frank is a businessman.Base-rate Information•The actual probability of an event–Librarians, business men?•Much research in the 1970’s &1980’s seemed to indicate that base rate information in these type of problems were ignored•Current research focuses on when participants do attend to base ratesRepresentativeness Heuristic•Judge probability of an event based on how it matches a prototype•Can be accurate •Can also lead to errors•Most will overuse representativeness–i.e. Frank’s description fits our vision of a librarian.Gamblers FallacySuppose you are at a roulette wheel and the last 8 spins have come up red.Do you bet on red or on black for the next spin?Red and black equally likely -- no statistical reason to select red over black (or visa versa).Availability HeuristicThe ease of bringing an example to mind is a means of estimating the probability of occurrence (likelihood)Frequent events will be easy to recallRare events will be difficult to recallBias -- tendency to overestimate rare events- Lightening Strikes, JAWS, GamblingI won 5 bigagillion-zinllion-million!You could be next!Availability HeuristicIn the English language, are there more words beginning with the letter K or more words with K in the third position?People often report 2 x as many words beginning with KBut there are many more words with K in the third position than in the first.Making Decisions•Which are you more afraid of?–Flying in an airplane–Driving in a car•Meyers (2001)–37 times safer per passenger mile in planes than motor vehicles»Air Transport Association 1995-1999Schwartz (1991)•Manipulated how many instances participants had to give of previously being assertive –Group 1: