The Program on Intrastate Conflict and Conflict ResolutionThe Program on Intrastate Conflict was established in the Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs of the Kennedy School of Government, Harvard University, on July 1, 1999, as a result of an association between the Foundation, the Center, and the School. The Program analyzes the causes of ethnic, religious, and other intercommunal conflict, and seeks to identify practical ways to prevent and limit such conflict. It has been intimately involved with the large-scale attempt to identity why some kinds of nation states fail and collapse, and how world order should react to the phenomenon of state failure. The Program has attempted to re-frame state building as a policy option and imperative, examined the relationship between resource flows and civil war, stud-ied the consequences of the global proliferation of small arms, researched peace build-ing and peace enforcement capabilities in Africa, and critiqued the appropriate role of truth commissions in strengthening conflict prevention and conflict resolution. Robert I. Rotberg is Director of the Program on Intrastate Conflict and Conflict Resolution and president of the World Peace Foundation.More information about the Program can be found at: http://www.belfercenter.org/project/52/intrastate_conflict_program.htmlThe World Peace FoundationThe World Peace Foundation was created in 1910 by the imagination and fortune of Edwin Ginn, the Boston publisher, to encourage international peace and cooperation. The Foundation seeks to advance the cause of world peace through study, analysis, and the advocacy of wise action. Ginn shared the hope of many of his contemporaries that permanent peace could be achieved. That dream was denied by the outbreak of World War I, but the Foundation has continued ever since to attempt to overcome obstacles to international peace and cooperation.Since 1993, the Foundation has examined the causes and cures of intrastate con-flict. The peace of the world in these decades has been disturbed primarily by outbreaks of vicious ethnic, religious, linguistic, and intercommunal antagonism within divided countries. The episodes of brutal ethnic cleansing that convulsed Rwanda, Bosnia, and Kosovo are but the best known and most devastating of a rash of such attempts to oust rivals across the globe. Few places are immune from some variant of this internecine warfare, whether the immediate battles are over religion, language, appearance, or color differences. Part of the task of the Foundation is to resolve conflicts as well as to study them. The Foundation’s work in Congo, Cyprus, Burma, Sri Lanka, Haiti, the Sudan, Zimbabwe, and all of Africa has resolution of conflict as its goal. It has sponsored a de-tailed study of negotiating the end of deadly conflict within and between states. It is also engaged in an analysis of the successes and failures of African leadership. More in-formation about the Foundation can be found at www.worldpeacefoundation.orgBelfer/WPF Report Number 43AFRICA’S SUCCESSES:EVALUATING ACCOMPLISHMENTRobert I. RotbergSupport for this report was contributed by The World Peace FoundationCambridge, MACITATION AND REPRODUCTIONThis document appears as report 43 of the Belfer-WPF Report Series.This report may be cited as: Robert I. Rotberg, Africa’s Successes: Evaluating Accomplishment, Belfer-WPF Report 43, Program on Intrastate Conflict (Cambridge, MA, 2007). No further citation is allowed without permission of the Program on Intrastate Conflict. Comments are welcome and may be directed to the Program on Intrastate Conflict. See below for contact information.The views expressed in this report are those of the author and publication does not imply their endorsement by BCSIA and Harvard University. This report may be reproduced for personal and classroom use. Any other reproduction is not permitted without written permission of the Program on Intrastate Conflict.Copyright © 2007Program on Intrastate Conflict and Conflict ResolutionBelfer Center for Science and International AffairsJohn F. Kennedy School of Government, Harvard University79 John F. Kennedy St.Cambridge, Massachusetts 02138Tel: 617-496-9812Fax: 617-491-8588E-mail: [email protected]://www.belfercenter.org/project/52/intrastate_conflict_program.htmlContentsExecutive Summary 1Acknowledgements and Sources 6Botswana 7South Africa 14Zambia 21Ghana 26Mozambique 31Tanzania 37Uganda 43Books and Reports of the Program on Intrastate Conflict 49Robert I. Rotberg is the Director of the Program on Intrastate Conflict and Conflict Resolution at the Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, John F. Kennedy School of Government, Harvard University. He is also the president of the World Peace Foundation and the author and editor of numerous books and articles on U.S. foreign policy, Africa, Asia, and the Caribbean, most recently Worst of the Worst: Dealing with Repressive and Rogue Nations (2007), Building a New Afghanistan (2007), A Leadership for Peace: How Edwin Ginn Tried to Change the World (2007), Israeli and Palestinian Narratives of Conflict: History’s Double Helix (2006), and Battling Terrorism in the Horn of Africa (2005).1Executive SummarySeven of mainland sub-Saharan Africa’s forty-five nation-states are widely regarded as being success stories. The mixed conclusions of this analysis are instructive in understanding the dynamics of political and economic achieve-ment in sub-Saharan Africa as a whole.Africa’s seven successful countries are all growing reasonably rapidly. Yet, job creation still lags behind promises and expectations, underlining the persistence of poverty. Moreover, where there is growing indigenous wealth, there are also severe income inequalities. Several countries will be benefiting from new resource finds, and broad improvements in GDP could eventually flow into the seven countries from such discoveries. But the exploitation of these finds, and other commercial advances, is being deterred in every case by serious shortages of electric energy. Every country has outrun its available power supplies; several years will pass in each case before these shortages can be met. Moreover, nearly all, except Botswana and South Africa, have road and rail networks that are inadequate for the industrial and agricultural growth on which their economic advances depend. Likewise, each country in our sample is being dragged down