Market Analysis, Highest and Best Use and Vacant LandThe Subject PropertyThe Purpose of the AssignmentSlide 4Property Productivity Analysis, Site Determinants of UseSlide 6Slide 7Slide 8Slide 9Slide 10Property Productivity Analysis, Location Determinants of UseSlide 12Slide 13Slide 14Property Productivity Analysis, Urban Growth StructureSlide 16Property Productivity Analysis, Major Employment NodesProperty Productivity Analysis, Growth Patterns & ZoningProperty Productivity Analysis, Summary Subject Use Location AnalysisSlide 20Market Determinants of Use, Demand and Supply - RetailSlide 22Slide 23Market Determinants of Use, Demand and Supply - OfficeSlide 25Slide 26Slide 27Market Determinants of Use, Demand and Supply - Multi-familySlide 29Slide 30Slide 31Financial Analysis of Land Use MixThree ModelsSlide 34Market Determinants of Use, Demand and Supply - ConclusionThree Suggested ModelsDiscussion Questions for Land Use MixSlide 38Slide 39So That’s - - - A Case Study: Vacant LandMarket Analysis, Highest and Best Use and Vacant LandThe Case Study of a 66 Acre Vacant Parcel of LandWayne Foss, DBA, MAI, CRE, FRICSFoss Consulting GroupEmail: [email protected] Subject Property•Size: 66 Acres•Shape: Rectangular, almost square•Location: 0.75 miles west of a major north-south freeway that is lined with new multistory office and retail buildings, and 0.25 miles south of a proposed northbelt loop freeway.•Zoning: Office and Retail uses3The Purpose of the Assignment•The Highest and Best Use of the Site–Facts to Consider•Doubtful that most probable use is as zoned–Many nearby office and retail buildings standing vacant •Only comparable sales were to users•Subject is probably a long-term investment•Truly comparable land sales may be difficult to identify because the subject’s actual use is questionable•Must test financial feasibility. Subject’s potential use must be tested4Site Analysis Map5Property Productivity Analysis, Site Determinants of Use•Access–Three Sides, north, west and south–Two of the streets are major thoroughfares–Close to a major freeway, and will be near to a new freeway belt-loop, although there is no direct access to these freeways from the subject6Property Productivity Analysis, Site Determinants of Use•Physical Characteristics–66 Acres, gentle slope from northeast to southwest–Drainage is a consideration: creek on the property–Noise Pollution: a 65-decibel reading was taken on the southeasterly portion of the site. Source is a nearby airport.7Property Productivity Analysis, Site Determinants of Use•Physical Characteristics–Any site plan would be primarily geared to four factors:•Interior road connection to Virginia Avenue•A detention pond encompassing at least 2.5 acres•Channelization of leaving the remaining drainage area in the natural floodplain•A minimum number of curb cuts and major access cuts onto New York Avenue or St. James Place8Property Productivity Analysis, Site Determinants of Use•Immediately adjacent land uses–Southwest and Southeast are retail and garden type office developments–Further southeast are office and industrial uses–East is a major apartment project–West is low density residential area•Looking at adjacent land uses one could infer that the front part would be retail, and the back part would be apartments, or some other type of residential (or possibly industrial) use.9Property Productivity Analysis, Site Determinants of Use•Zoning and Legal Constraints–Front Part:•Approximately 16 acres is general retail use–Rear Part:•Multi-story offices–City Planning did not reveal any obstacle to rezoning the land to apartment use or to light industrial use.–Zoning does not appear to present any major constraints on the land use possibilities.10Property Productivity Analysis, Site Determinants of Use•Conclusions:–Site analysis indicates that land uses would include:•Retail and Garden Office on southern portion•Apartment or medium-use-density residential on the northern portion•Industrial uses would also be a possibility, although development constraints, slopes and floodplain, make this use less than ideal.11Property Productivity Analysis, Location Determinants of Use•City, Regional and Neighborhood Growth–Focus in terms of how it supports a mixed use development–Where will growth most likely occur, and how much?–Linkages and Land use associations–Economic concept; questions to be considered•Close to what? Far from what?•Access to/from what?•Competing with what? And where?•Influences by what?12Property Productivity Analysis, Location Determinants of Use•Area Accessibility (Linkages)–Streets:•New York Avenue & St. James Place–Major north-south and east-west arterial highways•0.75 miles from major north-south regional freeway–Air transportation•Good access to air transportation (southeast)•12 miles from major metro-area airport–Traffic Counts•currently 20,000 ADT, with forecast of 40,000 ADT in 10 to 15 yrs13Property Productivity Analysis, Location Determinants of Use•Area Accessibility (Linkages)–Future•Proposed east-west beltway (north)–Neighborhood characteristics•on periphery of a prestigious north metro office district•high income housing found within 5 miles•moderate income housing adjacent to subject•considered slightly inferior to areas east of the north-south freeway–Conclusions•access to the subject is very good•traffic congestion in area might be considered somewhat negative for residential uses in the near term. Highway improvements nearby may negate this problem.14Land Use Linkages Map15Property Productivity Analysis, Urban Growth Structure•Existing Growth Pattern–analyze overall growth pattern in the area•Intensity of Use (floor area ratio)–number of square feet of building area per unit of land area–High intensity uses along the north-south freeway, and at major intersections with neighborhood collector streets–Lower intensity uses farther from the freeway and bordering the high intensity uses–Conclusion•marginal transitional location between–more intense uses toward the north-south freeway–less intense uses to the west.16Existing Generalized Land Use Pattern17Property Productivity Analysis, Major Employment Nodes•Regional NodesEmployment CentersName Location SQ. Ft. OfficeCBD 20 Mi. SE 33.7 MFreeway Loop 3 Mi. So 10.5 MWest Dist. 8 Mi. W 11.0 MTotal: