1Beyond Fire Fighting To Using Information for Strategic Planning and Decision MakingOpportunities & Challenges in MACO to Use Information for Longer-Term Policy and Programme Formulation & Impact ImprovementBy Tadeyo Lungu & Michael WeberAgricultural Consultative Forum/Food Security Research Project (MACO Participatory Self Assessment Workshop, Ibis Garden 18/19 March 2009)Research and Outreach Supported By:Research and Outreach Supported By:2Opportunities & Challenges in MACO to Use Information for Longer-Term Policy and Programme Formulation & Impact ImprovementObjectives • Highlight some key issues & challenges in this area• Outline empirical work under way to inform these challenges ( three handouts – take away info menus) – Illustrate the potential value of information available and forthcoming to assist in longer-term planning• Throughout presentation/discussion search for links to the key work areas of this workshop & to MACO’s tasks– Policy formulation and planning– Management & organizational culture– Financial management & plan execution– Human resource capacity building at MACO3Selected Issues and Challenges• Start by recalling a discussion between Minister Chituwo & Mr Daca(retired from MACO) at recent ACF Budget meeting– How to plan better to solve or head off fundamental problems rather than treating symptoms after diseases/poverty arrives – Minister Chituwo identified his desire for a more effective operational plan in MACO to follow up on work in each budget cycle/annual plan process• How can information that MACO and partners collect help? • Explain the process of obtaining some of the key MACO/partners data• Illustrate relevant program patterns/challenges shown by this information– Understanding types of smallholders really matters to program objectives– Significant heterogeneity among different small and medium smallholders– Subsidies going disproportionately to better off small & medium smallholders– Maize yield variability – what are the drivers and what to do to improve conditions?– Maize area left unharvested each year –what are the drivers and what to do?– Maize plot size and fertilizer application rates 4Map of Central Statistical Office Statistical Enumeration Areas (SEAs) Sampled in the CSO/MACO/FSRP Post Harvest and Supplemental Surveys in 2001, 2004 and in 2008) by Zambia’s Agro-Ecological ZonesSupplemental Surveys: Empirical Data on Smallholders in Zambia – Nation Wide Random Surveys (PHS/SS 99/00, 02/03 & 07/08= 364 SEAs)(CFS 06/07 and onwards = 640 SEAs5Verification of CFS 2007/2008 Data62008 Supplemental Survey With Smallholders78Smallholder Categorisation –Info. For Enhanced Programs & Targeting • Technical group cooperating for better coordination & use of information for providing assistance to smallholder sector • Participants so far: – ACF,FSRP, MACO, PAM, FAO, UNZA, MACO-SADFS, EC-Del, ZNFU (First meeting at Kafue George Aug 20-21,2008)• Use concept of “farming as a business” to help think about the targeting challenge• Goal is to describe discernable groups/categories of smallholders according to production/assets and income capabilities who also face similar bottlenecks• Challenge is to use such information for better programs and targeting to help achieve MACO/GRZ objectives. • Also can help monitor progress and make mid-course corrections in key MACO programs9Figure 1. Rough Estimate of Categories of Small & Medium-Scale Farmers Support Levels From One Program (Fertiliser Support Program) (CFS 07/08)10Table 1. Smallholder Household-Level Findings – 2004 SSMeans for Household Categories Ranked by Farm Size (Cultivated + Fallow)Indicators/Attributes1. Household Income6. Fertilizer Use Patterns5. Asset Ownership Patterns4. Cropping Patterns3. Land Holding Variables1.978.073.341.981.19.551.24HH Land holding size ha/hh1.5-2.5.88-1.5>0-.8725320kCategory ASubdivided - 3rds77.34979,998CategoryA>0-2.5 ha27344k25315k5.4368,825CategoryC>5.0– 20 ha2. Demographic AttributesNine sets of Tables-Indicators1,267,145218,322Number of smallholders9. Food Security Indicators8. Market Behaviour Patterns7. Spatial Location Patterns100 %17.23% smallholdersAll Small-holders>0 – 20 haCategoryB>2.5–5.0 ha11Table 2. Smallholder Household-Level Findings – 2004 SS4. Ag. Extension access460,983956,783442,104356,409306,409305,639Household per capita incomeMeans for Household Quintile Categories Ranked by Household Per Capita Farm Size (Cultivated + Fallow)Indicators/Attributes38.6426.204.141,987,88420.79263,430.091 Low451.2422.574.002,145,91620.74262,862.192.2,453,3293,661,4442,324,3182,300,000Household Income ZMK3. Land Holding Variables23.4524.4124.3219.91Number female headed hh %3.63 adults2.813.413.69Number of adults in hh 12 & >.41 ha/hh1.11.46.29HH PC Land Hold Size ha/hh501.7520.68262,0383. Mid544.1118.02228,3785. High2. Demographic Attributes1. Household Income1,267,145250,437Number of smallholders47 %51% Hhs receiving extension1.972.42Land size per household ha/hh100 %19.76% smallholdersOverallSmall-holders4.12Table 3. HH Categorisation/Targeting Findings – 2004 SS1,030,192 ZMK1,038 k955 k927 k1,008 k1,205 k Non-Fertiliser Users Assets86,405 mt31,94818,27217,5939,5069,087ZambiaTotal Fert. Used mt1,277,880 ZMK3,401 k483 k1,384 k1,345 k147 kPAM HH Value of HH Assets1.974.112.421.751.24.64Land size per HH ha/hh1,320,334 ZMK2,139 k1,266 k1,130 k1,065 k1,106 kAverage HH Assets ZMK2,886,006 ZMK8,784 k2,490 k2,458 k2,198 k678 kFSP HHs Value of HH AssetsMeans for Household Quintile Categories Ranked by Household Per Capita Farm Size (Cultivated + Fallow)Indicators/Attributes3984,271 k5,3442,18320.79263,430.091 Low7823,784 k5,1293,39620.74262,862.192.4,307 mt1,0379131,177PAM Food Security Pk Source1,964,370 ZMK6,287 k4,299 k5,226 kPur. HHs Value of HH Assets.41 ha/hh1.11.46.29HH PC Land Hold Size ha/hh11,2394,40620.68262,0383. Mid18,71911,36118.02228,3785. High50,746 mt10,315Commercial Purchase Source28,956 mt7,610FSP As Source of Fertiliser1,267,145250,437Number of smallholders100 %19.76% smallholdersOverallSmall-holders4.13Table 4. PHS & Supplemental Survey2000 Maize Yield 14Table 5. Mean Maize Yields on Hectares Planted– CSO/MACO CFS 07/08 DataLots of low yield2/5 of hhs with well above average yieldBasically Little Change in Mean National Yield on Maize Since 2000 Zambia(2000 was 1,373 kg/ha compared to 1, 266 kg/ha in 2007/2008)15Table 6. Mean Maize Yields