1Risk Assessment & Risk Risk Assessment & Risk Reduction in Environmental Reduction in Environmental PolicyPolicy2Risk in Environmental PolicyRisk in Environmental PolicyThe likelihood of an adverse outcomeThe likelihood of an adverse outcomeTo human healthTo human healthTo ecological health (?)To ecological health (?)Risk reduction prioritiesRisk reduction prioritiesRisk tradeoffs & RiskRisk tradeoffs & Risk--balancingbalancingEverything we do carries some riskEverything we do carries some riskCase of chlorinated water [Putnam, et al.]Case of chlorinated water [Putnam, et al.]RiskRisk--based statutes & regulationsbased statutes & regulationsE.O 12866 [Clinton 1993]E.O 12866 [Clinton 1993]3Risk Assessment & AnalysisRisk Assessment & AnalysisObjective (Scientific) DimensionObjective (Scientific) DimensionRisk characterizationRisk characterizationSubjective (ValueSubjective (Value--based) Dimensionbased) DimensionWhat to do?What to do?Uncertain RisksUncertain RisksLongLong--term v. shortterm v. short--term risksterm risksDistributional (environmental justice) risksDistributional (environmental justice) risksCostly Risk reduction programsCostly Risk reduction programs4Defining Characteristics of Defining Characteristics of “Environmental” Risk“Environmental” RiskThe The probabilityprobabilityof an adverse outcomeof an adverse outcomeType & severityType & severityof adverse outcomeof adverse outcomeThe The sizesizeof the exposed populationof the exposed populationCertaintyCertaintyof risk estimatesof risk estimatesTimingTimingof adverse outcomesof adverse outcomesDistributionDistributionof adverse outcomesof adverse outcomesSource: John D. Graham & Jonathan Bert Wiener (1995) Risk vs. Risk(Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press)5Scientific Dimension of Risk Scientific Dimension of Risk AssessmentAssessment1.1.Hazard IdentificationHazard IdentificationCould this substance pose a health threat & if so, what kind?Could this substance pose a health threat & if so, what kind?2.2.DoseDose--Response AnalysisResponse AnalysisHow does the degree of exposure to the substance related to the How does the degree of exposure to the substance related to the degree of toxic effect?degree of toxic effect?Missing data problemMissing data problemUncertainties & long time frame of epidemiological studiesUncertainties & long time frame of epidemiological studiesUncertainties of animal studiesUncertainties of animal studies3.3.Exposure AssessmentExposure AssessmentWhat are the characteristics of public exposure to this substancWhat are the characteristics of public exposure to this substance?e?Social/cultural “biases” in exposureSocial/cultural “biases” in exposure4.4.Risk CharacterizationRisk CharacterizationCombining doseCombining dose--response and exposure data, how is public health response and exposure data, how is public health affected?affected?6Subjective Dimension of Risk Subjective Dimension of Risk AssessmentAssessmentWhat is What is “Sound”“Sound”Science?Science?How much science do we need to make the “right” decision?How much science do we need to make the “right” decision?Who should bear the regulatory burden until we have “enough Who should bear the regulatory burden until we have “enough information?”information?”Risk PhilosophyRisk PhilosophyPrecautionary Principle:Precautionary Principle:Assume toxicity until proven safe.Assume toxicity until proven safe.If in doubt, then regulate.If in doubt, then regulate.Business bears the burdenBusiness bears the burdenFree Market Principle:Free Market Principle:Assume it is safe until a hazard is Assume it is safe until a hazard is identified.identified.If in doubt, do not regulate.If in doubt, do not regulate.Public bears the burdenPublic bears the burden7Subjective Dimension of Risk Subjective Dimension of Risk AssessmentAssessmentRisk Reduction PrioritiesRisk Reduction PrioritiesNatural vs. humanNatural vs. human--induced risksinduced risksGeographic, social, and classGeographic, social, and class--biased risk biased risk burdensburdensImmediate vs. longImmediate vs. long--term risksterm risksCertain vs. uncertain risksCertain vs. uncertain risksWhat is “Acceptable” Risk?What is “Acceptable” Risk?EPA: 4000 additional lifetime deaths from EPA: 4000 additional lifetime deaths from arsenicarsenic--induced cancerinduced cancer8Risk TradeoffsRisk TradeoffsRisk Risk TransformationTransformationRisk TransferRisk TransferDIFFERENT DIFFERENT POPULATIONPOPULATIONRisk SubstitutionRisk SubstitutionRisk OffsetRisk OffsetSAME SAME POPULATIONPOPULATIONDIFFERENT DIFFERENT TYPETYPESAME TYPESAME TYPECompared to Target Risk, the Compared to Target Risk, the Countervailing Risk is:Countervailing Risk is:Compared to Compared to Target Risk, Target Risk, the the Countervailing Countervailing Risk Affects:Risk Affects:Source: John D. Graham & Jonathan Bert Wiener (1995) Risk vs. Risk(Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press)9Policy Impact of Risk EmphasisPolicy Impact of Risk EmphasisForces policy makers to compare environmental Forces policy makers to compare environmental dangers to human health & solutions in similar dangers to human health & solutions in similar termstermsBiases policy process toward human health and Biases policy process toward human health and away from ecological concernsaway from ecological concernsDelays in getting data/science can stall policy Delays in getting data/science can stall policy making in name of “sound” sciencemaking in name of “sound” scienceFavors “wait & see” approachFavors “wait & see” approachcrisiscrisis--triggeredtriggeredpolicy makingpolicy makingBiases the policy process towards experts and Biases the policy process towards experts and away from the publicaway from the publicTend to have opposite assessment of risksTend to have opposite assessment of risks10Perceptions of RiskPerceptions of RiskWhich Matters More: Science or Which Matters More: Science or Politics?Politics?11“Chemicals in the Environment Pose “Chemicals in the Environment Pose and Increasing Risk to Society”and Increasing Risk to