GLOBAL&CHANGE&HOMEWORK&#3&Exploring&climate&model&output&using&the&NASA/GISS&Mo de l&E&!In!this!ex e rc ise !I’ll!as k!y o u !to !e x p lo re !h o w !o n e !c limate!mo d e l!s im u la te s !th e !eff ec t!o f!c h a n ge s!in !radiative!forcing!o n!th e!clim ate !of!the !past!ce ntu ry!an d!th e!clim ate !of!the !coming!century.!Th e!go als!of!this!assignment!are!for!you!to!bec o me!mo re !f a miliar!with!interpr e tin g !c limate!m o d e l !o u tp u t !a n d !to!examine!the!e ffe c ts!of!different!forcings!on !p a s t!c limate!tre n d s .!I!a lso !want!yo u !t o !th in k !a b o u t !the!kinds!of!cha nge s!an ticipated!for!the!Southwest.!!!For!this!question,!we!will!use!this!web!site:!http://data.giss.nasa.gov/modelE/transient/.!It!provides!output!from!a!climate!model!used!to!simulate!climate!in!response!to!several!types!of!radiative!forcing.!The!website!allows!you!to!map!output!from!different!model!simulations;!you!will!need!to!follow!thro ug h !the!in stru ctio ns !on !the !attach ed !h elp !she et!at!first,!to!m a ke!th e!m a ps !you ’ll!nee d.!The!model!used!here!is!the!NASA/GISS!ModelE!–!a!stat e!of!the!art !model!fo r !si mulating !c limate!change.!You!may!review!the!papers!by!Hansen!that!are!linked!on!the!website,!but!it!is!not!required!to!read!them ,!and !you !do!n o t!h a v e !to !re a d !t h e m!to!ans w e r !th e !h o mewo rk !q u e st io n s !co mplete ly .!!!Please!print!out!and!hand!in!the!maps!you!use!to!answer!these!questions.!!You$will$need$to$read$the$“ h el p $sh e et”$attached$to$this$assignment$–$it$will$en a b le $y o u $to$make $th e $specific$maps$that$I$will$ask$you$to$interpret.$$!1.&Climate&of&the&past&century&(first&link&on&above&site).&!Radiative!forcings!have!changed!substantially!during!the!last!century,!particularly!greenhouse!gases!and!aerosols.!But!what!role!has!each!played!in!generating!observed!climate!changes?!See!the!notes!from!the!en d !of!th e!Ae ro so ls!lectu re!to!remind!yourself!w hy!th is!is!impo rtan t.!Also!remind!yourself!about!the!difference!between!indirect!and!direct!effects!of!aerosols.!Here!we!will!see!what !o n e !climate!model!says!about!how!the se !d i ffe r ent!clima te !forcings!have!influenced!modern!c limate!trends.!!Compare!the!maps!of!surface!temperature!anomaly!and!surface !p re c ip it a tio n !a n o maly!(for !1 9 93 U2003!relative!to!1880U1890)!that!result!from!the!following!forcings:!• “wellUmixed!Greenhouse!gases,!direct!effect”!(all!wellUmixed!GHG’s:!CO2,!CH4,!N2O,!CFC,!plus!direct!effects!of!tropospheric!aerosols)!=!GHGDI!• “Aeros!Indir!Effect,CldCv”!(tropospheric!aerosols,!indirect!effects)!=!AIE!!You!should!have!four!maps!from!this!effort!(T!and!prec!from!each!of!the!two!forcings).!!a.!Describe!(in!a!paragraph)!the!main!features!of!the!chang es!see n!in!th e!GHGDI!sim u la ti o n .!Where!are!greatest!anomalies!seen?!How!would!you!explain!the!patterns?!b.!What!is!the!aerosol!indirect!effect?!Based!on!your!maps!of!the!anomalies!associated!with!this!forcing,!wh ere!a re!its!effec ts!likely!to !b e !s tro n g e s t? !c.!Focusing!on!the!SW!US,!what!has!been !th e !climatic!impact!of!increa s in g !gr e enhouse !g a se s !a n d !aerosol!direct!effects!in!our!region?!How!does!adding!the!indirect!effects!change!this!picture?!Do!indirect!e ffe ct s!c a n c e l!th e !impact!f ro m!GHG + DI?!!&&&&&&&2.&Simulated&future&climate&(second&link&on&above&site)&!Now!look!at!projections!of!future!temperature!and!precipitation.!We’ll!use!the!A2!scenario!forcing.!Make!maps!that!show!the!temperature!anomalies!for!the!DJF!and!JJA!seasons,!using!th e !2 0 9 0U2100!interval!c o m p a re d !to !th e !d efa u lt!modern !b a se !p erio d !(1 9 5 1 U1980).!Also!please!map!the!precipitation!anomalies!for!JJA!and!for!the!NH!cold!season!(NovUApr)!using!these!same!intervals!(2090U2100!average!compared!to!1951U1980).!Here!in!the!SW!we!receive!about!half!our!precipitation!in!JJA!and!about!half!in!the!OctUMar!window,!so!these!seasons!are!good!standUins!fo r!”monsoon”!and!“winter”!precipitation.!!• Describe!the!general!pattern!of!global!temperature!anomalies!for!each!season.!Do!you!notice!generalizable!differences!between!the!summer!and!winter!maps?!• How!do!summer!and!winter!temperature!anom alies !in!the!S W !U S!co m pa re?!Which!are!more!extreme?!• Is!the!SW!amo n g!t h e !m o s t!o r !lea st !se n s itiv e!r eg io n s!f o r!fu t u re !te m p e ra tu r e !ch a n ge ,!globally?!• How!do!monsoon!and!winter!rainfall!appear!to!change!in!these!projections?!!• From!information!provided!in!class,!you!sho uld !be!ab le!to!id entify !a!reaso n !for!the!w in ter!rainfall!decline.!W h at!ad ditio na l!clima te!m o de l!outp ut!m igh t!yo u!loo k!at!to!co nfirm!whether!this!reason!is!true!for!this!p articu lar!m od el? !Help sheet on making and reading climate model maps http://data.giss.nasa.gov/modelE/transient/ First, experiment a little with this website to get a feeling for what you are doing. You might learn something new – I certainly did! Go to this web site: http://data.giss.nasa.gov/modelE/transient/ You will see options as below. The first link will be used for the climate of the past century, and the second link is used for future climate projections. When you click the first link, you will encounter the following tables on the web page in the assignment. To choose a plot for a given forcing experiment, use the column indicated below by the green box (Lat-Lon under Response heading). You will then get a page with a dialog box like the one below. Always change the first item as shown; it will plot the anomaly (difference) between the time periods you select in the 4th and 5th line. The current settings will show you the average difference between the period 1993-2003 and the period 1880-1890. The third line allows you to look at different aspects of climate, so here you would see the average difference in surface temperature (but you will change this to look at precipitation). The fourth line lets you look at different seasons/months.1. Always change this to Anomaly (ensemble mean) 2. Select yes here (it removes a control run) 3. Use this to select the aspect you want to plot 4. Use this to select the season or full year 5. Use this to select the time period of interest 6. Use this to select the time period you are comparing with 7. This option controls how your output looks.Your resulting map could look something like this, with varying details of course. The text at