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HARVARD DPI 403 - Measuring Democracy

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STM103STM10319/28/2009 www.pippanorris.comPlanning: tasksPlanning: tasksFrom electronic syllabus on the course websiteFrom electronic syllabus on the course website www.pippanorris.comDownload report template in WordDownload report template in Word Download either the SPSS or the Stata guide Download the full QoG Codebook in PDF Confirm time slot for lab sessions starting next week9/28/2009 2Lab sessionsLab sessions Computer lab sessions in Taubman instead of classp The computer lab has 18 terminals; you may need to share with a partner.Confirm any changes with Ian Cornell by this WednesdayConfirm any changes with Ian Cornell by this Wednesday Let Ian know in advance if you lack sign‐on access Session 1: Group A:Mon 5 Oct 1002 30pmGroup A:Mon 5 Oct 1.00‐2.30pm  Group B: Mon 5thOct 2.30‐4.00pm  Group C Tues 6thOct 1.00‐2.30pm Session 2:  Group A: Mon 19thOct 1.00‐2.30pm  Group B: Mon 19thOct 2.30‐4.00 pm  Group C: Tues 20thOct 1.00‐2.30 pm9/28/2009 3Stata Stata SPSSGroup A (Mon 5/19 1:10‐2:30) Group B (Mon 5/19 2:40 ‐4) Group C (Tue 6/20 1:10‐2:30)Aguilar, Francisco Fodil, Yasmin Didow, KatherineBouchat, Sarah Icaza, Lorenza Jensen, LouiseChigwerewe, Shakespeare Jaffar, Karrar Munaretto, Maria Dash, BibhutiKuzmanovic, MarijaZulueta‐Fuelscher, KimanaDash, BibhutiKuzmanovic, MarijaZuluetaFuelscher, KimanaDieng, Momar Llanos, DaniellaGutierrez, Paul Pineda, Rene Bouchat, SarahHoffman, Craig Ramirez Bulos, Claudia Chigwerewe, ShakespeareJayaram, Shubha Rodriguez, Victoria Dash, BibhutiLarriera, Carolina Romero, Olga Fodil, YasimMeyer, Nele Routh, Shishir Guiterrez, PaulPatel, NehaSalvado, RodrigoJensen, StenbergPatel, NehaSalvado, RodrigoJensen, StenbergSanchez, Natalie Selcuk, Orhun Larriera, CarolinaTuinamoala, Laisa Subotic, Simonida Meyer, NeleVaziralli, Shahid Patel, NehaVibholt, Anders Sanchez, NataliaYildirim Onur Shubha, JayaramVibholt, AndersAguilar, FranciscoYildrim, Onur9/28/2009 4Aguilar, FranciscoYildrim, OnurChigwerewe, ShakespeareSanchez, NatalieStructure of ClassStructure of ClassIAims:Clarify selection of indicators for yourI.Aims: Clarify selection of indicators for your project reportsIIWhat constitutes a good indicator ofII.What constitutes a good indicator of democracy?IIITwo major indicatorsIII.Two major indicators Polity IVFreedom HouseFreedom House IV. Role playing Exercise: Evaluating FH59/28/2009 www.pippanorris.comKey questions?Key questions? How would you conceptualize and measure democracy?y p y How would you assess the strengths and weaknesses of the Freedom House and Polity IV indices?  Which of these indicators would you use, and why, for example, working in a multilateral UN organization, a nationalHR NGOas ajournalist asan officialforanational HR NGO, as a journalist, as an official for a bilateral donor, or as an academic analyst?  How would you justify your choice of indicator to a y jfyyfdiplomatic official from the Syrian, Zimbabwe or Sudanese governments?69/28/2009 www.pippanorris.comClass ReadingsClass ReadingsHaerpfer Ch 3 pp24‐40. Freedom House: Freedom in the Worldwww.freedomhouse.org79/28/2009 www.pippanorris.comMunck and VerkuilenMunck and VerkuilenChallenge Task StandardsConceptualization Identify attributes Avoid maximalist defVertical organization Avoid redundancy or conflationMeasurement Select indicators ValidityReliabilityAggregation Select levels ValidityAggregation rules Validity/robustnessTransparency of rules Replicability9/28/2009 8Polity IVPolity IVMonty G. Marshall, and KeithJaggers. 2002.Polity IVMonty G. Marshall, and Keith Jaggers. 2002. Polity IV Project: Political Regime Characteristics and Transitions, 1800‐2002: Dataset Users’ Manual. Maryland: University of Maryland. tii (18002007) l btiLong time‐series (1800‐2007) annual observations Academic standard, especially in IR9/28/2009 9Polity IV ConceptsPolity IV ConceptsDemocracy reflects three essential elements:Democracy reflects three essential elements: 1. The presence of institutions and procedures through which citizens can express preferences gp pabout alternative policies and leaders; 2. The existence of institutionalized constraints on e esteceost tut o a ed co st a ts othe power of the executive; and3.Theguarantee of civil libertiesto all citizens3.The guarantee of civil liberties to all citizens (although not actually measured). 9/28/2009 10Polity IV measurementPolity IV measurementThe dataset constructs a ten‐point democracy scaleThe dataset constructs a tenpoint democracy scale by coding  The competitiveness of political participation (1‐3),Thtiti f ti it t(12)The competitiveness of executive recruitment (1‐2), The openness of executive recruitment (1), and  The constraints on the chief executive (1‐4).  Autocracy is measured by negative versions of the same indices. The two scales are combined into a singleThe two scales are combined into a single democracy‐autocracy score varying from ‐10 to +10.9/28/2009 11Polity IV classificationPolity IV classification The existence or absence of institutional features of the nation state.  Competitive executive recruitment is measured by leadership selection through popular elections contested by two or moreselection through popular elections contested by two or more parties or candidates.  The openness of recruitment for the chief executive is measured by the opportunity for all citizens to have the opportunity to attain the position through a regularized process, excluding hereditary succession, forceful seizure of power, or military coups. B tttii hi h titBy contrast, autocracies are seen as regimes which restrict or suppress competitive political participation, in which the chief executive is chosen from within the political elite, and, once in office leaders face few institutional constraints on their poweroffice, leaders face few institutional constraints on their power. 9/28/2009 12Polity IVPolity IVFigure 3.4: Trends in Polity IV measure of Constitutional Democracy, 1800-20004020-pt score-2lity Combined 20-6-4Mean

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