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Slide 1How would we know if gay marriage initiatives lost 2004 for Kerry?1. Ask People to make up stuff from public opinion polls2. Compare states with and without gay marriage initiativesCarry this comparison to the county levelLook just at the regression linesSlide 7Slide 8It may well turn out, once the returns are analyzed in detail, that the supreme court of Kerry's own Massachusetts helped the mobilization of these traditionalist and fundamentalist religious voters by its decision last year approving gay marriage. That decision spurred the submission of initiatives against gay marriage that were passed on Tuesday in all 11 states where they made the ballot -- including Ohio.David Broder, "An Old-Fashioned Win," The Washington PostHow would we know if gay marriage initiatives lost 2004 for Kerry?1. Ask People to make up stuff from public opinion polls“I definitely think moral values are a huge, huge important factor in Bush’s reelection,” said Laura Olson, who studies religion and politics at Clemson University. Rousing religious voters, eleven states had constitutional amendments banning gay marriage. All passed, most importantly, in Ohio. Exit polling showed one-fifth of U.S. voters viewed “moral issues” as the predominant factor when considering which candidate to support. While analysts like Olson believe the term is overly general, they said it served as a “good nexus” to capture a group of Americans who vote with traditional values in mind. Turnout among evangelicals increased only slightly compared to 2000. But with more than a fifth of the electorate describing themselves as evangelical, Olson said the group’s exceedingly high turnout rate dramatically favored Republicans.Source: “Bush Pushed from Right,” CBS News, Nov. 8, 2004, http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2004/11/08/politics/main654383.shtml2. Compare states with and without gay marriage initiatives30 40 50 60 70Bush two-party vote pct., 20003040506070Bush two-party vote pct., 2004States with a referendumStates without a referendumMAVTCarry this comparison to the county level0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0Bush pct. 20000.00.20.40.60.81.0Bush pct. 2004States w/ initiatives0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0Bush pct. 20000.00.20.40.60.81.0Bush pct. 2004States w/out initiativesLook just at the regression lines0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0Bush pct. 20000.00.20.40.60.81.0Bush pct. 2004Comparison of regression linesx=.73, y = .740.2 0.4 0.6 0.8Bush pct. 20000.20.40.60.8Bush pct. 2004Ohio“That’s the kind of counterintuitive result that puts the ‘T’ in “MIT”-Al Franken, The Truth (with


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MIT 17 871 - GAY MARRIAGE

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