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U of M CE 5212 - China Motorization

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1This paper was commissioned for the ADB-JBIC-World Bank East Asia and PacificInfrastructure Flagship Study. The views expressed are those of the authors only.RAPID MOTORIZATION IN CHINA:Environmental and Social ChallengesOctober 18, 2004Lee SchipperWei-Shiuen NgEMBARQWORLD RESOURCES INSTITUTEEXECUTIVE SUMMARYRapidly increasing motorization in China, particularly private automobiles, creates both economicand individual benefits, as well as externalities and indirect negative impacts. Such externalitiescould be adapted and mitigated relatively easily when the rate of motorization growth is low.However, when the number of private automobiles rises by 15 to 20 percent per year and isheavily concentrated in dense cities, externalities create undesirable environmental and socialconsequences.With the increasing number of individual vehicles, road space and traffic control measures cannotkeep up; the result is traffic congestion, safety, and parking problems. Although the rapidconversion of land from rural to urban areas is mostly due to financial incentives, it providesmore transport infrastructure opportunities, which could indirectly increase the demand forautomobiles. In turn, higher demand for automobiles could also result in suburban development,leading to long-term urban sprawl in low-density regions accessible only by individual vehicles,as public transport cannot afford to provide service when densities are low. Providing gasoline forprivate cars and mopeds and diesel for trucks also leads to rising air pollution, as well asincreasing greenhouse gas emissions.China has existing policy measures that can minimize or even eliminate the negativeconsequences of rapid motorization—if they are effectively enforced. Efforts to ensure theproper enforcement of existing laws and regulations should therefore precede any efforts toimprove the laws. Important measures to consider include greater and more equitableenforcement of traffic laws and safety regulations, including expansion of required driver andpedestrian education, and increases in physical segregation to further protect different road users.This paper explores various options to cope with increasing motorization, including:• The introduction of dynamic road pricing in crowded city centers to charge for road usein the most congested areas at the most crowded times; more careful enforcement ofparking rules to keep vehicles off sidewalks; and keeping cyclist and pedestrian accessclear of moving or stationary motor vehicles.• The promotion of mass transit systems to control social inequity and urban sprawl, byusing rail, metro, and bus rapid transit (BRT) as a magnet to attract development aroundtransit nodes, such as in some Latin American cities.2• Protection of cyclists and pedestrians from both invasion of space by motor vehicles andrisks of accidents at crossings, and when walking in the streets due to blocked orinadequate sidewalks.• The rapid strengthening of fuel quality regulations (in all sectors) and deployment ofadvanced vehicle emission controls before too many new vehicles are sold with old-fashioned systems.• The strengthening of the recently announced (September 2004) automobile fuel economystandards, through the imposition of road fuel taxes that reflect the social costs ofimporting oil.• Careful efforts to explore domestic sources of alternatives to fossil fuels, includingnatural gas and bio-fuels, as well as alternative fuel vehicles (including small electricvehicles) to take advantage of more fuel options.Above all, the best way for Chinese cities to avoid worsening the undesired impacts of rapidmotorization is to take an integrated approach to transportation, equity, and environment throughcareful implementation of economic signals, such as the “green taxation” approach in the Nordiccountries. This foundation allows the best optimization of responses to different goals andchallenges that may otherwise contradict each other.Given the speed of motorization in China, there is not much time to impose mitigation measuresin order to further reduce the environmental and social impacts of motorization, especially in thecoastal cities. This study focuses on whether current policy measures to reduce the impact ofrapid motorization exist, and whether China will adopt, enforce, and improve technologies andpolicies that have proven to be cost-effective and successful in reducing the externalities ofmotorization.INTRODUCTIONOne of the distinguishing transformations of the 20th century was the emergence of motorizationas a driving force in western society. By the end of the century, the mainstay of that mobility, theautomobile, had become universal, inexpensive, and above all a symbol of modern “urban”culture. While the automobile took more than half a century to become “universal” in NorthAmerica and 75 or more years in Europe, the development began in middle-income countries inthe 1970s with much greater rapidity.Motorization will have a profound effect on China. First, GDP growth, at least in Asia, has oftensurpassed double digits. Second, a number of factors push car ownership up more rapidly thanthe rate of increase in GDP, including a decline in manufacturing costs for the simplest carmodels; the growth of knock-down kits for local assembly, which provided local value-addedincentives; and the rapid growth of two-wheeled mobility, which has preceded four wheels inmuch of Asia. Third, urban population rates in most developing countries have been increasingsignificantly, leading to subsequent increases in the demand and consumption of automobiles.Because of their high population densities, these regions will experience significant impacts interms of environmental and social costs at a relatively faster speed.The focus of this study is on motorization in urban areas. In this paper, motorization is defined ascar ownership and use of individual vehicles, either two- or four-wheelers. These can beprivately owned by individuals or companies, private for hire (taxis), or government cars. Due totime constraints and inadequate data, we were unable to provide a full explanatory analysis ofdifferences in ownership among cities. Although we do not discuss freight vehicles or3movements, the impacts discussed in this paper are a result of increases in both passenger andfreight vehicles, including heavy trucks and small delivery vehicles. Finally, while we recognizethe importance of


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U of M CE 5212 - China Motorization

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