Slide 1Slide 2Slide 3Slide 4Slide 5Slide 6Slide 7Slide 8Slide 9Slide 10Slide 11Slide 12Slide 13Slide 14Slide 15Slide 16Slide 17Slide 18Slide 19Slide 20Slide 21Slide 22Slide 23Slide 24Slide 25Slide 26Slide 27Slide 28Slide 29Slide 30Slide 31Slide 32Slide 33Slide 34Slide 35Slide 36Slide 37Slide 38Slide 39Slide 40Slide 41Slide 42Slide 43Slide 44Slide 45Slide 46Slide 47Slide 48Slide 49Slide 50Slide 51Slide 52Slide 53Slide 54Slide 55Slide 56Slide 57Slide 58Slide 59Slide 60Slide 61Slide 62Slide 63Slide 64Slide 65Slide 66Slide 67Slide 68Slide 69Slide 70Slide 71Slide 72Slide 73Slide 74Slide 75Slide 76Slide 77Slide 78Slide 79Slide 80Slide 81Slide 82Slide 83Slide 84Slide 85Slide 86Slide 87Slide 88Slide 89Slide 90Slide 91Slide 92Slide 93Slide 94Slide 95Slide 96History of ComputingHistory of ComputingCSE P590A (UW)CSE P590A (UW)PP190/290-3 (UCB)PP190/290-3 (UCB)CSE 290 291 (D00)CSE 290 291 (D00)Ed Lazowska, University of Washington Steve Maurer, UC BerkeleyGeoff Voelker, UC San DiegoViewpoint- Beyond Heroes and Mythology- What Worked, What Didn’t, and Why. - (For Business)- For Public PolicyA Very Simple Policy ModelThe Commissar Model: (v – c) > 0Choosing Incentives to Get There“No dominant incentive mechanism.”ViewpointA History of (v – c) to 1970:A History of “v.”Technology improves.Society uses more data.Inventors notice existing uses.A History of “c.”Spreading R&D costs over bigger markets.Gears, vacuum tubesIntegrated circuits and software.PreviewLecture 1: Computing to 1940Stephen M. MaurerGoldman School of Public [email protected]: Data & CivilizationAn honest man has hardly need to count more than his ten fingers, or, in extreme cases, he may add his toes and lump the rest. I say, let our affairs be as two or three, and not as a hundred or a thousand; instead of a million count half a dozen, and keep your accounts on your thumbnail.”- Henry David ThoreauThe “v” in (v - c).Data for Governance- Irrigation Cultures (ca. 3000 BC)- Egypt (ca. 1500 BC)- Roman Imperial Household (1st Century AD)PrehistoryData for the Military- Military paybooks (1500 BC)- Philip II (382 – 286 BC) and Alexander (356 – 323 BC)- Ptolemy I (d. 246 BC) PrehistoryData for Research- Aristotle (384 – 322 BC)~ 400 books- Library of Alexandria (283 BC)750,000 papyriPrehistoryCollapse: Dark Ages (AD 476 – 1000)Medieval LifeRenaissance (14th – 16th Centuries AD)Warfare & CommercePrehistoryReemergenceCommerce, States, EmpiresPhilip II (1527 – 1598)18 hour workdaysInbox: 2000 pp./dayOutbox: 300 memos/day.Thirty Years’ War (1618 – 1648)Gustavus Adolfus (1594 – 1632).PrehistoryAnd something new: Big Science ProblemsTycho Brahe (1546 – 1601)Computing Trig FunctionsWilhelm Schickard (1623 – 24)Professor of Mathematics, Astronomy and HebrewDesigned machine for Kepler that could add, subtract, multiply, and divide.Source: http://www.gris.uni-tuebingen.de/projects/schickard/index.htmlOrigins:17th – 18th CenturiesBlaise Pascal (1623 – 62)Mathematical Prodigy WheelbarrowHydraulic PressBarometerProbability TheoryEtienne Pascal’s Tax HeadachePrototype (1642) & Patent (1645)Adding and SubtractingBusiness PlanDemonstrations & Financing50 “Pascalines” built through 1652Cost: 100 livres each.Slow, temperamental.Concept: 1671Definitive Machine: 1694Gottfried Leibnitz (1643 – 1716)Goal: “It is unworthy of excellent men to lose hours like slaves in the labor of calculation, which could easily be passed on to anyone else if machines were used.”Incentives: Aide to Elector-Archbishop of MaintzGottfried LeibnitzWhy Didn’t It Work?TechnologyGears: Tolerances, Slack and Binding.Performance Inadequate?A Circular Argument?EconomicsSpreading R&D CostsWas the Market Big Enough?How Much Computing Did the World Need?PolicyThomas de Colmar (1820)Arithmometer7 figure accuracy, $150 each.Engineers and insurance companies.Rise of Big Business: Nabisco (1893), Travelers Insurance (1883), Firemen’s Fund (1863), Alcoa (1888)Dorr E. Felt (1887) KeyboardComptometer19th Century SequelWilliam S. BurroughsBurroughs Adding Machine Company, later UnysisPrinting calculatorsSold to banks and clearing houses at $220 each.1,000 machines/year by 1900.130,000 machines/year by 1908.58 Models, “One Built for Every Line of Business” Success: Improved technology base. Market penetration is (reasonably) fast. R&D can now be spread over huge markets.A Robust Technology The Manhattan Project20th Century SequelA Success Story for Patents?Determining private needs.But: (v – c) for very expensive inventions.But: ex ante vs. ex post efficiency.But: Government as buyer?But: Financing and information asymmetry.Policy19th Century:The Idea of ComputersPre-HistoryMyth: Haephestus, Golem, Albertus MagnusLibrary of AlexandriaMedieval ClocksLeonardo DaVinci (1452-1519)Julian Turianno (ca. 1556)Hans Bullman (ca. 1547)Rene Descartes & “Soulless Machinery”From Automata to WeavingBasil Bouchon Punched Cards (1785)De Vaucanson (1709 – 82)AutomataDirector of State Silk Mills (1741)Joseph Marie Jacquard (1752 – 1834)Fishing net machine – Prize and patentPattern Loom (1806) – Prize + RoyaltyLyons Riots (1810)11,000 looms in operation by 1812PolicySerendipity: Playthings turn out to be usefulPatents won’t work - Patronage and reputationLead users?Late Stage InnovationPatents vs. PrizesCharles BabbageCharles Babbage (1792 – 1871)Banking/Establishment rootsObsessions: Automata, Mistakes,Street Musicians.Other ProjectsChess PlayerPenny PostActuarial tablesSpeedometerCowcatcherPhysics, Geology, MathematicsLucasian Professor of Mathematics (Cambridge)Ada, Countess of Lovelace (1815 – 52)Difference EngineDifference EngineErrors in TablesFiring and Navigation TablesGaspard de Prony (1755-1839)Method of DifferencesThomas Harriot (1560 -1621) Number Cube 1st Diff. 2d Diff. 3rd Diff. 1 1 -- -- -- 2 8 7 -- -- 3 27 19 12 -- 4 64 37 18 6 5 125 61 24 6 6 216 127 36 6 etc., etc. ...Difference EngineIdea (1812) and Prototype (1820 – 22)Royal Astronomical SocietyGrants (£17,000), Not PatentsFor sailors and scholars – TolerancesTerminated project in 1833.Christopher Evans, The Making of the Micro: A History of theComputer (London 1981)Georg Scheutz (1785 – 1873) Prototype (1833)Full scale (Paris
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