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UW-Madison STAT 371 - Project Assignment

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Project Assignment for Statistics 371, Professor Wardrop, Summer Semester, 2011You may perform the project described below and submit a written report for it. Reports must besubmitted on paper, not electronically.You may work alone or as a member of a team of three or fewer persons. If you work as a team, onlyone report should be submitted by the team (remember to include everyone’s name on the report!) and allmembers of the team will receive the same grade. Neither my expectations for nor grading of reports isinfluenced by the size of the team.Please submit legible reports. For many of you, this will mean words typed, and “nonwords” (e.g.tables, figures, formulas, and computations) drawn by hand. Effective use of color and illustrations cangreatly enhance a report.The maximum score for the project is 2.5 points extra credit.I have 42 students; thus, I could receive as many as 42 reports. Sometimes reports disappear. Some ofthose times, it is due to my negligence. In any event, you must keep a copy of your report in case the originalis lost.Project. Due before 12:01 pm on Thursday, July 28. Perform 100 dichotomous trials. Your trials mightbe Bernoulli Trials and they might not be Bernoulli Trials. Part of your fun will be to investigate this issue(see below). We will discuss possible choices for trials in lecture. Your report should describe the activitythat generated the trials and you should explain (briefly) why this activity interests you. I am not looking fororiginality, but I want to know why the activity is interesting to you. Here are two examples:1. “I have always loved to play basketball, so I want to study my shooting.” (Free throws; 3-point shots;etc.)2. “My friends and I play quarters to see who must drink Diet Snapple. My trials will be attempts tobounce a quarter into a juice glass.”Note that if a success is extremely difficult or extremely easy to obtain, 100 trials are not likely to revealmuch of interest. You will obtain more interesting data if you select conditions that make the probability ofsuccess on a trial be a number between 0.25 and 0.75.(a) Before you collect any data make a point guess of the value of p. (Point means single number. Forexample, if I were shooting free throws, before I collect data I would say, “My best guess is thatp = 0.53.”)(b) Use the data from your 100 trials to investigate the validity of Assumptions 2 and 3 of Bernoullitrials, using the techniques presented in Course Notes Chapter 6. (Note: I put this in bold-facetype because, historically, a large proportion of students have neglected to do this when told withregular-face type!) Your report must contain the time-order results of your 100 trials so that I cancheck your analysis.Let’s make this clear. To check assumption two you should create the first half/second half table,discuss what it reveals and do Fisher’s Test. To check assumption three you should create the memorytable, discuss what it reveals and do Fisher’s Test.(c) On the assumption you have Bernoulli trials, use the standard normal curve to obtain the approximatetwo-sided 95 percent confidence interval for p. Is your point guess from part (a) in your CI? Whatdoes the CI tell you about your guess?1(d) On the assumption you have Bernoulli trials, find the point prediction and 95 percent prediction inter-val for the number of successes in 100 future trials.(e) Perform the 100 additional trials and compare your results to your predictions from part (d). Note: Ido not want you to check the assumptions of BT’s with this second set of data.Grading of Reports. Here is a guide to how the projects will be graded. Basically, I look for errors. If anerror is particularly egregious, I will count it as two or perhaps three errors. Egregious errors are rare andwill occur only if you neglect to do some big part of the project or you totally mess up some big part of theproject. Occasionally, I will erase some errors if your project is wonderful in some way. But don’t aim forwonderful; it is more productive to avoid errors!The table below shows the relationship between the extra credit points you will receive and your totalnumber of errors.Number of Errors:0 or 1 2 or 3 4 or 5 6 or 7 8 or 9 10 or moreExtra Credit Points: 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0Very important, read this. Based on a problem that arose recently, I want to make the following veryclear.1. If you share data with another individual/team, you will receive a score of 0 on your project.2. If you use data from a report submitted previously by a student in any of my classes, you will receivea score of 0 on your project.3. If you fabricate your data, you will receive a score of 0 on your project.Apart from issues of integrity and honesty, here is my point: I assign these projects so that you can getthe experience of doing a study and so that you have the possibility of seeing that Statistics might be usefulin your life.By the way, it is my judgment that will determine whether any of the forbidden actions listed has oc-curred. In particular, I don’t need to prove it in any legal or statistical sense, but I will, of course, be willingto discuss the matter with you if you think I am mistaken.Model projects are available on my webpage. Model projects 4 and 5 are examples of your projectassignment. Be careful in using these models. Do not simply rewrite one of them, ‘plugging in’ yournumbers and treatments/trials. This is because the specific questions I ask you to answer in the descriptionabove do not exactly match what I asked previous students.Need some ideas? On my webpage, click ontoResearch Papers: > Papers on Statistical Education > Small Student .... See examples 25–30on pages 8 and 9for ideas for project topics. Or talk to me about


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UW-Madison STAT 371 - Project Assignment

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