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MSU LIR 832 - UNITED STATES DISTRICT COURT

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1UNITED STATES DISTRICT COURTEASTERN DISTRICT OF WISCONSINSTEVEN J. ALEXANDER,KEITH A. BALASH,CHARLES A. BERARD,MICHAEL R. BRUNOW, JAMES C. CLEVELAND,JOSEPH J. FARINA,JOHN MALLOY HAGEN,WILLIAM E. HEINEN,WAYNE W. JENSEN,THOMAS P. KLUSMAN,EDWARD LIEBRECHT,RONALD G. QUACKENBUSH,ANTHONY T. SMITH,STEVEN J. SPINGOLA, KIM R. STACK,DAVID C. VAHL, ANDMICHAEL D. YOUNG, Plaintiffs,vs. Case No. 03-C-611CITY OF MILWAUKEE,POLICE CHIEF ARTHUR JONES,MILWAUKEE BOARD OF FIREAND POLICE COMMISSIONERS,CHAIRMAN WOODY WELCH,VICE-CHAIRMAN CARLA Y. CROSS,COMMISSIONER ERIC M. JOHNSON,COMMISSIONER LEONARD J. SOBCZAK,COMMISSIONER ERNESTO A. BACA,Defendants.Report of Professor Dale Belman2This report has been submitted by Professor Dale Belman. Professor Belman has been amember of the faculty of the School of Labor and Industrial Relations of Michigan StateUniversity for three years. Prior to that, he was a member of the Economics Department of theUniversity of Wisconsin Milwaukee for 15 years. He has taught the undergraduate and graduatesequence in mathematical statistics and econometrics. In addition he has an extensive body ofrefereed and published research using statistical methods. His vitae is attached as Exhibit 10.Opinion:In the present matter, Alexander v. Jones, I have been asked to compare the distributionof the racial and gender characteristics of the individuals who were promoted to the position ofcaptain in the Milwaukee Police Department, to those of the pool of lieutenants available forpromotion from November 18, 1996, to November 18, 2003. Based on the information providedto me, and the analysis in the balance of this report, it is my opinion that:• Considering the group of police officers who served as lieutenants for the period fromNovember 18, 1996, to November 18, 2003, white male lieutenants were under-represented among the group of officers promoted to captain during this period. Inaddition, African-American and female officers were over-represented among thegroup of officers promoted to captain during this period. Statistical tests fordifferences in the racial and gender characteristics of the group which was promotedwith the pool of lieutenants available for promotion rejects the hypothesis that theracial and gender characteristics of the group which was promoted are reasonablyexplained by chance. Further, these conclusions are based on legal standards fordetermination of statistical certainty.In reaching these opinions, I have reviewed the document from William Rettko,Attorney, dated February 11, 2004, and a supplemental e-mail from Kristine L. Eastman, datedFebruary 13, which amended the information in Mr. Rettko’s letter. All statistical calculationsare derived from the data provided by the plaintiff’s attorneys in the communications datedFebruary 11 and 13. Organization of the Analysis:This analysis considers the racial and gender distributions of police lieutenants promotedto captain during the period from November 18, 1996, and November 18, 2003, and comparesthe racial and gender characteristics of the individuals who were promoted to captain with thoseof the officers who held the rank of police lieutenant during this period. The only informationused in this analysis is the number of individuals who were promoted to captain, and the numberof lieutenants available for promotion, in each of six racial/ethnic/gender groups.1 The groupsused in this analysis were: white male, white female, African-American male, African-Americanfemale, Hispanic male and Asian/Pacific Islander male. The plaintiffs’ attorney excluded severalindividuals who were deemed to be unlikely to seek promotion to captain during this period. Asthese individuals were white males, their exclusion reduces the probability of finding a pattern ofunder representation of white males.3Patterns of over and under-representation in promotion are investigated using severalracial/gender comparisons including: white males compared to all other racial/gender groups,African-Americans compared to all other racial/gender groups, men compared to women withoutregard to race, Hispanics compared to all other racial groups, a division into the four racialgroups without regard to gender, and a division into the six racial/gender groups. This was doneto determine if test results were sensitive to the division by race or gender. With the exceptionof the Hispanic/non-Hispanic division, all test results were consistent with the hypothesis thatwhite male officers were under-represented in the group that was promoted to captain.The analysis uses Fisher’s exact test, Pearson’s χ2 and a logistic regression model tomeasure the likelihood that the observed racial and gender characteristics of the group of officerspromoted to captain resulted from a random choice from the underlying population oflieutenants. Fisher’s test is typically preferred for small sample tests, but may be tooconservative, so we also utilize Pearson’s test.2 Both tests produce qualitatively similar results.The logistic model is used to measure the magnitude of the advantage and disadvantage inpromotion associated with racial/ethnic and gender characteristicsAnalysis of the Role of Race and Gender in Promotions:Analysis of Promotions:The first analysis, presented in Exhibit 1, considers lieutenants employed by theMilwaukee Police Department between November 18, 1996, and November 18, 2003. The firstnumeric column reports the racial and gender characteristics of individuals who held the rank oflieutenant and were not promoted to captain over the period under study, while the secondcolumn reports the racial and gender characteristics of lieutenants who were promoted to captainover that period. The third column details the racial and gender characteristics of officers whoserved as police lieutenants over the period under study without regard to the whether or not theywere promoted. This is the pool of lieutenants available for promotion. Each cell contains four types of information. Considering the upper left hand cell ofExhibit 1, white males who were not promoted, the first number, 93, is the number of whitemales who were not promoted over the period under study. The second value, 81.58 percent, isthe percent of allwhite males who were not promoted. Thus, 81.58 percent of the 114 white malelieutenants were not promoted. The third number in a cell is the number of white males whowere not promoted as a percentage of all lieutenants who


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