PowerPoint PresentationSlide 2Slide 3Slide 4Slide 5Slide 6Slide 7Slide 8Slide 9Slide 10Slide 11Slide 12Slide 13Slide 14Slide 15Slide 16Oil consumption by areaSlide 18Slide 19Slide 20Slide 21Slide 22Slide 23Slide 24Slide 25Slide 26Slide 27Slide 28Slide 29Slide 30Slide 31Slide 32Slide 33Slide 34Slide 35Slide 36Slide 37Slide 38Slide 39Slide 40Slide 41Slide 42Slide 43How VT HeatsHow People Move-USEIASlide 46Slide 47Slide 48Slide 49Slide 50Slide 51Slide 52Slide 53Slide 54Slide 55Slide 56Slide 57Oil Peak, Facts and PoliciesFeb. 20, 2008Gary Flomenhoft, Fellow Gund InstituteLecturer, Community and Intl. Developmenthttp://www.uvm.edu/giee0%20%40%60%80%100%1850 1870 1890 1910 1930 1950FuelDomesticatedAnimalsLaborWork Done in the U.S. Economy, 1850-197002550751001800 1825 1850 1875 1900 1925 1950 1975 2000Composition of U.S. Energy UseComposition of U.S. Energy Usewoodanimal feedcoaloilgaselectricityPercent of total energy useEnergy Densities of FuelsFuel Energy Density (Mj/kg)Peats, green wood, grasses 5.0-10.0Crop residues, air-dried wood 12.0-15.0Bituminous coals 18.0-25.0Charcoal, anthracite coals 18.0-32.0Crude oils 40.0-44.0WORLD ENERGY2004Net EnergyHubbert Oil CycleMarion King (MK)HubbertThe Epoch of Fossil Fuel Exploitation(after Hubbert, 1969)0-5-4 -3-2-1+1+2 +3+4+5Iron inMiddleEastStonehengeBuiltParthenoncompletedPyramidsconstructedMayancultureInquisitionBlackDeath Magellan'sCircumnavigation Steam Engine100200300Trillion kwh per yearUS Oil ExtractionWorld Oil ExtractionOil ReservesUS Oil ExtractionWorld Oil ExtractionWorld Oil ExtractionSource: Boyle, et al, Oxford PressOil consumption by areaOIL AND GAS LIQUIDS ASPO ScenarioNet Energy from Oil and Gas LiquidsWorld Oil ExtractionWorld Oil FlowsOil Producers: 98 countrieswww.lastoilshock.comOil Producers: 64 from 98 in decline, 60 terminallywww.lastoilshock.comhttp://www.theoildrum.com/node/3087Oil Watch Monthly: October 2007Business As Usual-EIABusiness As Usual-EIA1960-1980 Predictions1975-1983 PredictionsReal Price of Oil 1869-2007Dubai Oil Prices and US Oil Consumption$0.00$10.00$20.00$30.00$40.00$50.00$60.00$70.00$80.00$90.00$100.001965196719691971197319751977197919811983198519871989199119931995199719992001200320050500010000150002000025000Thousands BBL/dayDubai nominal $ Dubai 2006$ US oil consumptionDubai Oil Prices and US GDP$0.00$10.00$20.00$30.00$40.00$50.00$60.00$70.00$80.00$90.00$100.00196519671969197119731975197719791981198319851987198919911993199519971999200120032005$0.00$2,000.00$4,000.00$6,000.00$8,000.00$10,000.00$12,000.00$14,000.00Dubai oil Price 2006 $ US GDP billions chained 2006 $Dubai Oil Prices and US OIL/GDP ratio$0.00$10.00$20.00$30.00$40.00$50.00$60.00$70.00$80.00$90.00$100.001965 19671969 1971 1973 1975 19771979 19811983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 20050.0000.5001.0001.5002.0002.5003.0003.5004.000Dubai oil Price 2006 $ oil consumption/GDP 2006 $World Oil ExtractionDumped Gas Hogs1974 Lincoln~8mpg1974 Corolla~30mpgJet Industries:Citi-Car(Beaumont)Electricar Lectra1980’s 2nd Wave of EVs“Better batteries 10 years away”WORLD ENERGY2001 Verm ont Own Load Electric Energy SupplyNuclear36.3%Renewable4.9%Hydro6.9%Hydro Q uebec34.9%System14.4%O il1.6%G as1.0%Coal0.0%(61% FF=8.8%FF)8.8+1.6+1= 11.4% Fossil FuelsHow VT Heats86% Fossil FuelsFuel oil, kerosene60%Bottled gas, LP14%Utility gas (nat gas)12%other fuelwood9%Coal or coke0%electric5%solar energyno fuel86% Fossil FuelsHow People Move-USEIAHummer H1Sticker price $106,185Current lawEquipment deduction $25,000Total tax deduction* $60,722Bush economic planEquipment deduction $75,000Total tax deduction* $88,722* Includes bonus tax write-off enacted by Congress in March 2002 and a deduction for normal depreciation.Sources: Detroit News research, IRS, Taxpayers for Common Sense Gas Hog Tax CreditSource: EPAPolicy Recommendations: Guidelines1. Eliminate perverse incentives-make money!2. Provide positive incentives-account for externalities. ie: putting a price on carbon-make money or revenue neutral.3. Regulate (higher mpg)3. Spend moneyThe playing field is NOT level. Fossil Fuels have 100 years of subsidies,ignoring external costs, and a huge lobby in DC. Don’t expect the “free market” to take care of it.WHAT TO DO? Reactive or Pro-active?WHAT DON’T WE HAVE?•Oil-zero•Coal-zero•Nat Gas-not much (landfills)Why promote consumption of something we don’t have?* Conduct an audit of perverse incentives promoting FF use. Eliminate perverse incentives.WHAT TO DO?DEALING WITH PEAK OIL IS GOOD FOR•Climate Change•Vermont Economy•Should do it anywayWHAT TO DO? Provide incentives Ex: GermanyPolicies, Market-based Instruments:1. 1999 Tax & Rebate on Fuel (tax cut): Diesel/gasoline $1.79-2.48/gallon Funds rebated to payroll taxes-89%, efficiency, and RE2. 2005 Cap/trade for CO2-powerplants and industrial heat3. 1991 Feed-in Tariffs: Wind=$.1149, PV=$.6385, hydro=$.1055, biogas=$.1551•No costs to governmentResults:1. PV Industry: 2715 MW installed, 52% of world total, 40,000 employed(US has 360 MW installed or 13% of Germany)2. Wind Industry: 22,247MW, 28% of world total, 82,000 employed (United States 16,818MW)3. Biomass sector 95,400 employedTotal: 217,000 employees in RE~107,000 FF & nuclearWHAT TO DO? Reactive or Pro-active?WHAT DO WE HAVE TO WORK WITH?•Trees•Farms•Cows•Land•Wind•Sun•Big and Small Hydro•Smart People•Indigenous Energy Industry•EntrepreneursWHAT TO DO? Electricity•VT Yankee = 550MW CT River Dams-567MW. •Dams = $160 Million/year revenue. •Buy the dams. Use eminent domain if necessary•Fast-track small hydro-up to 400MW•Approve more wind farms•More Wood chip plants•Etc.WHAT TO DO? Heat•All-fuels efficiency/ weatherization•District heating and co-generation•Biodiesel heating fuel•Wood and wood chip/pellet heating•Building codes requiring passive solar, thermal mass, window insulation, Solar hot water• Wood stoves•High Performance Schools Energy Program•Cap/dividend on carbon-heating fuelWHAT TO DO? Transportation•Hybrids•Plug-in hybrids•Electric vehicles•Alternative fuels, ethanol, methanol (flex-fuel), biodiesel•Trains•Public transit-Jitneys•Bike/pedestrian paths•Tax/rebate on fuels•Cap/dividend on carbon-vehiclesWHAT TO DO? Agriculture•Don’t turn food into fuel•Biodiesel: waste oil, algae, non-food cropsMethane digesters: “Cow-power”Crisis or OpportunityWe will shift from Fossil Fuels.Will we be Pro-active or
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