Genetic simplex modeling of personality in adolescent Australian twinsSlide 2Slide 3Slide 4Slide 5Slide 6Slide 7Slide 8Slide 9Slide 10Slide 11Slide 12Slide 13Slide 14Slide 15Slide 16Slide 17Slide 18Slide 19Slide 20Slide 21Slide 22Slide 23Slide 24Slide 25Slide 26Slide 27Genetic simplex modeling of personality in adolescent Australian twinsN.A. GILLESPIE1, D. M. EVANS1, N.G. MARTIN11Queensland Institute of Medical Research and University of Queensland, Joint Genetics Program, Brisbane, Australia.Supported by Queensland Cancer Fund, Cooperative Research Centre for Discovery of Genes for Common Human Diseases, and NHMRC grants 901061 & 9050998.Modeling personality changeEaves, Eysenck & Martin (1989)Adult personality - High of genetic continuity over time !Effect stronger in Neuroticism vs ExtraversionGenetic continuity in adolescents?Simplex modeling (Boomsma, 1989)Genetic Simplex modelingAutoregressive modelStructural equation model ηi = βi ηi-1 + ζivar (ηi) = βi2 var (ηi-1) + var (ζi)ζ i-1i-1Yi-1YiYi+1ζ iζ i+1λ i-1λ iλ i+1ε i-1β iβ i+1ii+1ε iε i+1Measurement model Yi = λi ηi + εivar (Yi) = λi2 var (ηi) + var (εi)TWIN 1TWIN 21 1 1E11ζE11ζE12ζE13βE2βE3ζA12ζA13Y11Y12Y13ε11ε12ε13ζA11A1111 1βA2βA31 1 1ζE21ζE22ζE23βE2βE3ζA22ζA23ε21ε22ε23ζA2111 1βA2βA3Y21Y22Y23A12A13A23A23A23E12E23E22E21E13SampleTwin Mole and Twin MAPS projectsAssess the genetic / environmental etiology of Melanocytic Naevi (common moles) in twins aged 12 & 14 years + Cognition at 1681 items JEPQ - Psychoticism (P) - Extraversion (E) - Neuroticism (N) - Lie (L)Twin Mole Twin MAPS12 yrs 14 yrs 16 yrsP E N L P E N L P E N LMale 603 604 606 605 465 466 466 467 416 412 416 415Female 605 602 607 609 471 470 473 473 442 438 442 442DataNormal weighted by sex and ageStructural equation modeling using ML analysis of individual observations performed in MxRaw continuous data methodsAssumptions of mean and variance homogeneity by twin order and zygosity (and necessarily by sex and age)Polychoric test-retest correlations P 12 14 1612 -14 .55 -16 .45 .55 -N=505E 12 14 1612 -14 .58 -16 .51 .67 -N=498N 12 14 1612 -14 .58 -16 .48 .64 -N=509L 12 14 1612 -14 .57 -16 .47 .63-N=510Twin pair polychoric correlationsConsistent with a genetic hypothesis !Univariate & Multivariate resultsAE best fitting modelModel-2LL df2LLdfpAIC1. 7630.37 2991 0.00 5 5 -10.00P12 P14 P16ε1ε2ε3ζA2ζA31 1 1E1ζE1ζE2ζE3βE2βE3E2E3ζA111 1βA2βA3A1A2A3PsychoticismAE Simplex modelζA21 1 1E1ζE1ζE2ζE3βE2βE3E2E3ζA111 1βA2βA3A1A2A3PsychoticismDrop genetic innovation @ 16 yearsP12 P14 P16ε1ε2ε3Model-2LL df2LLdfpAIC1. 7630.37 2991 0.00 5 5 -10.002. 7635.80 2992 5.43 1 * 3.43ζA31 1 1E1ζE1ζE2ζE3βE2βE3E2E3ζA111 1βA2βA3A1A2A3PsychoticismDrop genetic innovation @ 14 yearsP12 P14 P16ε1ε2ε3Model-2LL df2LLdfpAIC1. 7630.37 2991 0.00 5 5 -10.002. 7635.80 2992 5.43 1 * 3.433. 7634.82 2992 4.45 1 * 2.45Psychoticism - Best fitting Simplex modelTimeζA /Var(ηA)ζE /Var(ηE)14 .27 .5516 .37 .25ε1.36.93.551.15P12A1E1P14A2E2P16A3E3ε1.36ε1.36ζA2.12ζA1.37ζA3.13.70ζE1.15ζE2.06ζE3.051 1 11 1 1ExtraversionAE Simplex modelModel -2LL df2LLdfpAIC1. 7538.80 2981 0.00E12 E14 E16ε1ε2ε3ζA2ζA31 1 1E1ζE1ζE2ζE3βE2βE3E2E3ζA111 1βA2βA3A1A2A3ExtraversionDrop genetic innovation @ 16 yearsE12 E14 E16ε1ε2ε3ζA21 1 1E1ζE1ζE2ζE3βE2βE3E2E3ζA111 1βA2βA3A1A2A3Model -2LL df2LLdfpAIC1. 7538.80 29812. 7538.96 2982 0.16 1 .69 -1.84ExtraversionDrop genetic innovation @ 14 yearsE12 E14 E16ε1ε2ε3ζA31 1 1E1ζE1ζE2ζE3βE2βE3E2E3ζA111 1βA2βA3A1A2A3Model -2LL df2LLdfpAIC1. 7538.80 29812. 7538.96 2982 0.16 1 .69 -1.843. 7544.34 2982 5.54 1 * 3.54Extraversion - Best fitting Simplex modelε1.23.92.53.72E12A1E1E14A2E2E16A3E3ε1.23ε1.23ζA2.12ζA1.38.93ζE1.35ζE2.18ζE3.171 1 11 1 1TimeζA /Var(ηA)ζE /Var(ηE)14 .27 .6416 .00 .53Time Var(ηA1-3 ) Var(ηE1-3 )Var(ε) TotalE12 .38 .35 .23 .96E14.922 .38 + .12= .44.532 .35 + 18 = .28 .23 1.00E16.932 .44 + .00 = .38.722 .28 + .17 = .32 .23 .93N12 N14 N16ε1ε2ε3ζA2ζA31 1 1E1ζE1ζE2ζE3βE2βE3E2E3ζA111 1βA2βA3A1A2A3Model-2LL df2LLdfpAIC1. 7724.22 2999 2.26 5 .81 -7.74NeuroticismAE Simplex modelN12 N14 N16ε1ε2ε3ζA21 1 1E1ζE1ζE2ζE3βE2βE3E2E3ζA111 1βA2βA3A1A2A3Model-2LL df2LLdfpAIC1. 7724.22 2999 2.26 5 .81 -7.742. 7730.57 3000 6.35 1 * 4.35NeuroticismDrop genetic innovation @ 16 yearsN12 N14 N16ε1ε2ε3ζA31 1 1E1ζE1ζE2ζE3βE2βE3E2E3ζA111 1βA2βA3A1A2A3Model-2LL df2LLdfpAIC1. 7724.22 2999 2.26 5 .81 -7.742. 7730.57 3000 6.35 1 * 4.353. 7728.02 3000 3.80 1 .05 1.80NeuroticismDrop genetic innovation @ 14 yearsTimeζA /Var(ηA)ζE /Var(ηE)14.26 .7016.31 .37Neuroticism - Best fitting Simplex modelε1.22.93.49.91N12A1E1N14A2E2N16A3E3ε1.22ε1.22ζA2.11ζA1.36ζA3.11.76ζE1.39ζE2.22ζE3.151 1 11 1 1LieAE Simplex modelL12 L14 L16ε1ε2ε3ζA2ζA31 1 1E1ζE1ζE2ζE3βE2βE3E2E3ζA111 1βA2βA3A1A2A3Model-2LL df2LLdfpAIC1. 7685.48 3000 6.75 5 .24 -3.25LieDrop genetic innovation @ 16 yearsζA21 1 1E1ζE1ζE2ζE3βE2βE3E2E3ζA111 1βA2βA3A1A2A3Model-2LL df2LLdfpAIC1. 7685.48 3000 6.75 5 .24 -3.252. 7694.64 3001 9.17 1 ** 7.17L12 L14 L16ε1ε2ε3LieDrop genetic innovation @ 14 yearsζA31 1 1E1ζE1ζE2ζE3βE2βE3E2E3ζA111 1βA2βA3A1A2A3Model-2LL df2LLdfpAIC1. 7685.48 3000 6.75 5 .24 -3.252. 7694.64 3001 9.17 1 ** 7.173. 7690.30 3001 4.83 1 * 2.83L12 L14 L16ε1ε2ε3Lie - Best fitting Simplex modelε1.24.84.46.75L12A1E1L14A2E2L16A3E3ε1.24ε1.24ζA2.10ζA1.45ζA3.15.87ζE1.28ζE2.23ζE3.091 1 11 1 1TimeζA /Var(ηA)ζE /Var(ηE)14.24 .7916.32 .35DiscussionUni- and multivariate analyses Small BUT significant genetic innovations @ 12 & 14 yearsGenes which effect personality traits at all three ages + New genetic innovationsDifferent environments are salient at different agesLimitationsNormal weighted dataRemoves age and sex effectsDoes not capture phenotypic variance with ageAnalyses based on transformed data to remove skewnessEquivalent results !Sex limitationEvidence of general sex limitation for Neuroticism at 16 yearsHomeSimplex modelNeuroticism final
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