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Spatial Analysis to Quantify Numerical Model Bias and Dependence



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Spatial Analysis to Quantify Numerical Model Bias and Dependence How Many Climate Models Are There Mikyoung Jun Department of Statistics Texas A M University mjun stat tamu edu May 8 2007 This is joint work with Reto Knutti and Doug Nychka Outline Introduction Climate models and questions of interest Data Climate model biases for Mean state and Trend Correlation between model biases Mean State Trend Eigen analysis Outline Introduction Climate models and questions of interest Data Climate model biases for Mean state and Trend Correlation between model biases Mean State Trend Eigen analysis Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change IPCC Established in 1988 by two United Nations organizations the World Meteorological Organization WMO and the United Nations Environment Programme UNEP Goal assess the risk of human induced climate change Global climate model numerical model that gives climate output on grids We have 20 climate models developed by various organizations over the world Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change IPCC 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 Group Beijing Climate Center Canadian Center for Climate Modelling Analysis Me te o France Centre National de Recherches Me te orologiques CSIRO Atmospheric Research US Dept of Commerce NOAA Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory US Dept of Commerce NOAA Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies LASG Institute of Atmospheric Physics Institute for Numerical Mathematics Institut Pierre Simon Laplace Center for Climate System Research National Institute of Environmental Studies and Frontier Research Center for Global Change Meteorological Institute of the University of Bonn Meteorological Research Institute of KMA and Model and Data group Max Planck Institute for Meteorology Meteorological Research Institute National Center for Atmospheric Research National Center for Atmospheric



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