Environmental Change: Environmental Change: Why Does It Matter?Why Does It Matter?Susanne Moser, Ph.D.Susanne Moser, Ph.D.Institute for the Study of Society and EnvironmentInstitute for the Study of Society and EnvironmentNational Center for Atmospheric ResearchNational Center for Atmospheric ResearchGuest Lecture to CU-Boulder Geography 1001-010 · Environmental Systems · July 6, 2006Geography & the Human Geography & the Human Dimensions of Global ChangeDimensions of Global ChangeGeography’s Four TraditionsGeography’s Four Traditions–Earth Science TraditionEarth Science Tradition““How is the physical planet working?”How is the physical planet working?”–Spatial or Locational TraditionSpatial or Locational Tradition““Why are things where they are and how do they Why are things where they are and how do they relate to each other?relate to each other?–Area Studies or Regional TraditionArea Studies or Regional Tradition““What are different regions like? What makes them What are different regions like? What makes them distinct? How did they become the way they are?” distinct? How did they become the way they are?” –Society-Environment TraditionSociety-Environment Tradition““What impacts do humans have on nature? What What impacts do humans have on nature? What impact does nature have on humans? How can we impact does nature have on humans? How can we use environmental resources sustainably and fairly, use environmental resources sustainably and fairly, and live on Earth safely? What causes us to perceive and live on Earth safely? What causes us to perceive and interact with the environment the way we do?”and interact with the environment the way we do?”The Study of the Human Dimensions of Global Environmental ChangeHuman Dimensions of GECHuman Dimensions of GECCausesCauses – human drivers of – human drivers of global changeglobal changeImpactsImpacts – environmental and – environmental and societal impacts of global societal impacts of global changechange–Hazards and risksHazards and risks–VulnerabilityVulnerabilityExposureExposureSensitivitySensitivityResilienceResilienceResponsesResponses–MitigationMitigation of the causes, of the causes, minimizing human drivers of minimizing human drivers of changechange–AdaptationAdaptation to the impacts to the impactsThe Case of Global WarmingThe Case of Global WarmingObserved changes in the climate systemObserved changes in the climate systemCauses – Drivers of climate changeCauses – Drivers of climate changeImpacts – Current and futureImpacts – Current and futureSocietal responses – Mitigation and Societal responses – Mitigation and adaptation options and challengesadaptation options and challengesAn Integrated FrameworkAn Integrated FrameworkObserved Changes in the Climate SystemObserved Changes in the Climate SystemGlobal Warming – Observed Global Warming – Observed Changes in the Climate SystemChanges in the Climate SystemThe last 140 years of temperature recordsThe last 140 years of temperature recordsObserved Changes in the Climate Observed Changes in the Climate System System (cont.)(cont.)The last 1000 years of temperature recordsThe last 1000 years of temperature recordsObserved Changes in the Climate Observed Changes in the Climate System System (cont.)(cont.)The last >400,000 years of temperatureThe last >400,000 years of temperatureOther observed changesOther observed changes(1690-1999)Muir Glacier, Alaska: 1941 and 2004Causes of Anthropogenic Climate Change Causes of Anthropogenic Climate Change (Global Warming)(Global Warming)Greenhouse Gases and TemperatureGreenhouse Gases and TemperatureCauses of Anthropogenic Climate Causes of Anthropogenic Climate ChangeChangeKey heat-trapping greenhouse gasesKey heat-trapping greenhouse gases–Carbon dioxide (COCarbon dioxide (CO22))–Methane (CHMethane (CH44))–Nitrous oxide (NNitrous oxide (N22O)O)–Various fluorinated compoundsVarious fluorinated compoundsGlobal COGlobal CO22 Emissions & Concentrations Emissions & Concentrations~380Major US GHG SourcesMajor US GHG SourcesUS GHG Emission SourcesUS GHG Emission SourcesProjecting the future … scenariosProjecting the future … scenariosOver the next 100 years?Over the next 100 years?Projections:• 2.5-10.4 deg F risein global temperature • changes in precipi-tation• more weatherextremes• 1-3 ft sea-level rise• loss of Arctic sea ice,mountain glaciers,snow cover• changes in seasons• changes in majorcirculation patterns (monsoon, El Niño)• changes in oceancirculationImpacts of Climate ChangeImpacts of Climate ChangePotential Climate Change ImpactsHow do we study potential impacts?How do we study potential impacts?Potential Impacts on Coastal AreasPotential Impacts on Coastal AreasPotential Impacts on Water ResourcesPotential Impacts on Water ResourcesPotential Impacts on AgriculturePotential Impacts on AgriculturePotential Impacts on Human HealthPotential Impacts on Human HealthPotential Impacts on Wildlife & Potential Impacts on Wildlife & EcosystemsEcosystemsPotential Impacts on Recreation & Potential Impacts on Recreation & TourismTourismSocietal Responses to Climate ChangeSocietal Responses to Climate Change-- Mitigation -- MitigationReducing the Human Drivers of Reducing the Human Drivers of Climate ChangeClimate ChangeReduce GHG emissions from energy useReduce GHG emissions from energy use–Greater efficiency – do more with lessGreater efficiency – do more with less–Conservation – use lessConservation – use less–Fuel switching – use less carbon-intensive fuels (e.g., coal -> Fuel switching – use less carbon-intensive fuels (e.g., coal -> natural gas)natural gas)–COCO22 capture and storage away from atmosphere – use but capture and storage away from atmosphere – use but minimize emissionsminimize emissions–Use non-COUse non-CO22-emitting energy sources-emitting energy sourcesRenewable energies – wind, solar, geothermal, etc.Renewable energies – wind, solar, geothermal, etc.Nuclear energyNuclear energyReduce GHG emissions from land use etc.Reduce GHG emissions from land use etc.–Reduce deforestation, reforest landReduce deforestation, reforest land–COCO22-conserving practices in agriculture-conserving practices in agriculture–Methane capture from garbage dumps, livestock operationsMethane capture from garbage dumps, livestock