!1!!!!Notes!from!Matthew!Bunn’s!January!2007!thesis!Guardians at the Gates of Hell Estimating the Risk of Nuclear Theft and Terrorism – and Identifying the Highest-Priority Risks of Nuclear Theft!!p 13: The!inspectors!arrived!at!the!sprawling!nuclear!weapons!assembly!and!disassembly!facility!on!a!Thursday!in!October,!to!review!the!facility’s!security!measures.!They!were!surprised!by!what!they!found.!There!was!no!portal!monitor!at!the!gate!to!detect!nuclear!material!being!smuggled!out,!and!no!metal!detector!to!prevent!guns!from!being!smuggled!in.!In!a!test,!inspectors!playing!the!roles!of!thieves!(including!an!insider)!succeeded!in!smuggling!out!enough!mock!nuclear!material!for!a!bomb.!The!facility!was!immediately!closed!for!security!upgrades.!It!reopened!the!following!Tuesday,!with!nuclear!material!detectors!and!metal!detectors!in!place.!This!was!not!Russia!in!1995.!It!was!the!United!States!in!1985.!The!facility!was!Pantex,!the!United!States’!main!plant!for!putting!together!and!taking!apart!nuclear!weapons,!in!Amarillo,!Texas!–!intended!to!be!perhaps!the!highestRsecurity!nuclear!site!in!the!United!States,!if!not!the!world.!!P!21:!Within!the!U.S.!government,!two!secret!studies!in!early!1995!were!particularly!influential!in!highlighting!the!dangers!posed!by!insecure!nuclear!materials!and!the!inadequacies!of!thenRcurrent!U.S.!government!efforts!to!address!the!problem.!The!first!was!a!survey!of!nuclear!security!in!the!former!Soviet!Union!prepared!by!the!Joint!Atomic!Energy!Intelligence!Committee!(JAEIC),!which!concluded!that!not!a!single!facility!in!the!former!Soviet!Union!had!adequate!safeguards!in!place!to!protect!against!nuclear!theft. !p!36:!there!are!disturbing!indications!that!demand!for!stolen!nuclear!weapons!or!materials!may!be!becoming!more!focused!and!sophisticated!and!may!be!coming!closer!to!overcoming!the!gap!between!buyers!and!potential!sellers.!These!indications!include:!•!Incidents!of!terrorist!teams!carrying!out!reconnaissance!at!nuclear!weapon!storage!sites!and!on!nuclear!weapon!transport!trains!in!Russia,!whose!locations!and!schedules!are!state!secrets;!•!Reports!that!the!41!heavily!armed!terrorists!who!seized!hundreds!of!hostages!at!a!theater!in!Moscow!in!October!2002!considered!seizing!the!Kurchatov!Institute,!a!site!with!enough!highly!enriched!uranium!(HEU)!for!dozens!of!nuclear!weapons;!!P!44R45:!Aum!Shinrikyo,!the!Japanese!doomsday!cult!(now!renamed!Aleph)!carried!out!a!comprehensive!program!of!development!for!chemical,!biological,!and!nuclear!!2!weapons!prior!to!its!famous!1995!nerve!gas!attack!in!the!Tokyo!subway.!Aum’s!leader,!Shoko!Asahara,!was!obsessed!with!weapons!of!mass!destruction,!particularly!nuclear!weapons.!The!cult!had!tens!of!thousands!of!members!at!its!peak;!assets!in!the!range!of!hundreds!of!millions!of!dollars,!millions!of!which!it!spent!on!its!chemical,!biological,!and!nuclear!weapons!programs;!hundreds!of!members!with!advanced!technical!training,!in!some!cases!from!Japan’s!leading!universities;!and!a!substantial!number!of!facilities!where!it!could!pursue!its!work!in!secret!(prior!to!the!Tokyo!subway!attack,!Japanese!authorities!gave!the!group!remarkably!free!rein,!in!part!because!of!its!status!as!a!religious!organization).!The!cult!targeted!Russia!as!a!potential!source!of!nuclear!weapons,!materials,!and!technology;!reportedly!succeeded!in!recruiting!tens!of!thousands!of!members!there;!reportedly!recruited!staff!members!at!the!Kurchatov!Institute35!(one!of!Russia’s!leading!nuclear!research!centers!and!a!site!where!hundreds!of!kilograms!of!HEU!was!poorly!secured!and!accounted!for!at!the!time);!established!extended!relationships!with!a!variety!of!senior!Russian!officials,!including!the!chairman!of!Russia’s!Security!Council;!and!sent!senior!cult!officials!on!numerous!weaponsRshopping!trips!to!Russia.!!P!47R48:!a!range!of!indicators!suggests!that!some!Chechen!factions!may!be!interested!in!violence!on!a!nuclear!scale.!The!attack!by!32!heavily!armed!and!suicidal!terrorists!on!an!elementary!school!in!Beslan!in!September!2004,!which!ended!in!the!massacre!of!over!300!people,!most!of!them!children,!demonstrates!clearly!that!some!Chechen!factions!are!willing!to!kill!innocent!civilians!on!a!large!scale!and!are!capable!of!organizing!large!and! w ellRplanned!operations!to!do!so.!Some!of!the!most!prominent!Chechen!factions!have!increasingly!allied!themselves!with!an!extreme!Islamic!agenda!that!is!more!global!than!local,!and!there!have!long!been!strong!ties!between!some!Chechen!factions!and!al!Qaeda.!Chechen!fighters!have!trained!in!al!Qaeda!camps!in!Afghanistan,!foreign!al!Qaeda!fighters!have!fought!in!Chechnya,!and!Chechen!fighters!have!fought!for!the!Taliban!and!al!Qaeda!in!Afghanistan.!The!most!extreme!Islamist!factions!might!be!tempted!to!use!a!weapon!of!mass!destruction!against!Russia!–!or!some!groups!might!provide!such!weapons!to!al!Qaeda!for!use!elsewhere,!making!the!ongoing!conflict!in!Chechnya!potentially!a!global!danger.!!p!49!talks!about!Chechen!plans!to!seize!a!submarine!from!the!Russian!fleet!and!use!it!to!blackmail!Russia!into!withdrawing!its!troops!from!Chechnya.!One!of!the!Chechens!had!served on Russian submarines before leaving the Pacific Fleet in the rank of naval commander to become chief of the operational department of the Chechen separatists' general staff. P 50: Another disturbing incident occurred in March 2002, when Russian police in the Sverdlovsk region arrested three Chechens in possession of a range of guns and explosives. One of the men was found to have a valid pass to the high-security closed city of Lesnoy, site of one of Russia's largest nuclear weapons assembly and disassembly facilities. (This pass would have entitled him to enter the closed city, but not the weapons facility itself, though he could have used his access to the city to build relationships with employees and guards at the weapons facility.) He had the pass because his father had!3!been an employee at the plant and the family had lived in the city.56 In January 2003, Colonel-General Igor Valynkin, commander of the 12th Main Directorate of the Russian Ministry of Defense, the branch responsible for guarding Russia's nuclear weapons, summed up the situation by warning that “Chechen terrorists plan to seize some crucial military facility or nuclear warhead so as to threaten not just Russia, but the whole world.”57 In late 2005, Russian Interior Minister Rashid Nurgaliev, in charge of the troops that guard most key nuclear