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Integrating Objective and Subjective Hazard Risk in Decision-Aiding System Design



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3rd International Workshop on Human Error Safety and System Development Li ge Belgium June 7 8 1999 Integrating Objective and Subjective Hazard Risk in Decision Aiding System Design Deborah S Hyams David M Matsumoto and James K Kuchar Department of Aeronautics and Astronautics Massachusetts Institute of Technology Cambridge MA 02139 USA Abstract A generalized model is presented to incorporate objective hard and subjective soft hazard information in automated decision aiding systems The model may be used with more than one hazard of more than one type in a given problem Uncertainties in state measurements dynamics hazard extent and hazard severity are included as is consideration of the fact that different operators may have different concepts of what is an acceptable or unacceptable risk By examining the tradeoffs created by these uncertainties appropriate decision thresholds can be selected Using an aviation case study information gained from observation of aircraft behavior in the presence of weather was used to develop a model of weather as a soft hazard This information could then be used in a decision aid to provide feedback on route acceptability Introduction Real time decision aiding and alerting systems are often used to assist human operators in controlling processes efficiently and in preventing undesirable incidents from occurring such as a collision in a vehicle control application or exceeding temperature limits in process control There are a number of types of real time decision aids ranging from process status displays to planning tools to safety and time critical warning systems However all decision aids can be broadly classified as either active or passive Active systems generate discrete decisions or commands that are communicated to the operator with the intent of modifying the process future state trajectory e g a traffic conflict resolution command Passive systems provide process and environment state information to the operator e g depicting



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