Landscape ExplorationandThe Influence of BeliefsMotivationMotivationMotivationMotivationMotivationMotivationQuestionsPayoff LandscapesThe ExperimentThe ExperimentThe ExperimentThe ExperimentThe ExperimentThe ExperimentThe ExperimentResultsResultsResultsResultsModelingModelingConclusionFurther QuestionsLandscape ExplorationandThe Influence of BeliefsJason Carver and Kevin MatulefMotivation• Recall “addiction model”Motivation• Recall “addiction model”Red button initially has shorter delayMotivation• Recall “addiction model”Red button initially has shorter delayGreen button initially has longer delayMotivation• Recall “addiction model”Red button initially has shorter delayGreen button initially has longer delay– But red button slows everything down…Motivation• Recall “addiction model”Red button initially has shorter delayGreen button initially has longer delay– But red button slows everything down…Why do people press the red button?Motivation• Recall “addiction model”Red button initially has shorter delayGreen button initially has longer delay– But red button slows everything down…Why do people press the red button? Because it appears to be the better one…Questions• To what extent are people willing to explore actions that appear suboptimal?• Do people get stuck in “local maxima?”• How are the answers to the above influenced by people’s beliefs?Payoff Landscapeslocal maxPotential PayoffsThe Experiment3Total points: 3Moves remaining: 10The Experiment23Total points: 5Moves remaining: 9The Experiment2 3Total points: 8Moves remaining: 8The ExperimentThe ExperimentTotal points: 12Moves remaining: 7234The ExperimentThe ExperimentTotal points: 17Moves remaining: 62345The ExperimentThe ExperimentTotal points: 20Moves remaining: 523453The ExperimentThe ExperimentTotal points: 25Moves remaining: 423453Results• Group A: control↑Start PeakResults• Group A: control↑Start PeakResults• Group A: control• Group B: subjects told max value on board↑Start Peak↑Start PeakResults• Group A: control• Group B: subjects told max value on board↑Start Peak↑Start PeakModeling• Reinforcement model– Reinforcement of actions?– Reinforcement of destinations?Modeling• Reinforcement model– Reinforcement of actions?– Reinforcement of destinations?• No obvious place in reinforcement model for the “belief” about where fortune lies.• Can it be incorporated in a natural way?Conclusion• Adventurousness in exploratory situations very contingent upon beliefs• Simple “reinforcement” model may be insufficient to explain human behavior in such situations.Further Questions• Hundreds of variations:– “Patterned” landscapes?– Probabilistic rewards?– Continuous landscapes?– 2 dimensions? 3 dimensions?• Connections with risk aversion? • Connections with “belief