04/24/2007 01:53 PMLoading “Advertising Age”Page 1 of 11http://adage.com/print?article_id=115712Photo Illustration: John KuczalaThe new realities that areunending the old media andmarketing order are now clearlyvisible and gaining momentumevery day.Download:Ad Age chronicles thechaos: The timelineVideo Excerpts:Garfield's Chaos 2.0Presentation Bob Garfield's Chaos Scenario 2.0The Post Advertising AgeBy Bob Garfield Published: March 26, 2007Maybe you'd better lean forward. Presently you will be given five reasons to consider something barelyimaginable: a post-apocalyptic mediaworld substantially devoid of brand advertising as we have long known it. It's a world in which Canadian trees are left standing and broadcast towersaren't. It's a world in which consumer engagement occurs without consumerinterruption, in which listening trumps dictating, in which the internet is adollar store for movies and series, in which ad agencies are marginalized andCannes is deserted in the third week of June. It is a world, to be specific, inwhich marketing -- and even branding -- are conducted without much relianceon the 30-second spot or glossy spread. Because nobody is much interested in seeing them, and because soon theywill be largely unnecessary. Perhaps you are already rolling your eyes. Perhaps you believe that vaststructures on which vast societies and vast economies depend do not easilylose their primacy. Perhaps you believe that the TV commercial and magazinespread -- and radio spot and newspaper classified -- are forever andimmutable, like the planets orbiting the sun. Good for you. Now, say hello to Pluto -- the suddenly former planet. Forever andimmutable, it turns out, are subject to demotion. This could be grim news forthe agency business, which continues its erratic Pluto-like orbit aroundmarketing budgets as if unaware that it has lost its stature -- and its relevance04/24/2007 01:53 PMLoading “Advertising Age”Page 2 of 11http://adage.com/print?article_id=115712is next to go. In due course, you shall see how circumstances have conspiredto threaten its place on the cosmic map altogether. Video killed whom?To support the analogy of planetary delisting, we needn't go back 5 billion years to the origin of the solarsystem. Instead, just think back to approximately the day before yesterday. Remember how they used to talkabout "the MTV generation"? It was shorthand for the post-baby boomers who couldn't be stimulated unless you basically jammedkaleidoscopes in their eyeballs. They had cut their teeth on the rapid-fire editing and visual noise of musicvideo, so all media were obliged to pick up the pace or lose the attention of an entire generation. And just incase the symbolism escaped you, don't forget the first song that ever played on MTV: "Video Killed the Radio Star," by the Buggles. Ironic, eh? But not as ironic as this: The latest thing the MTV generation has begun losing interest in isMTV, where ratings fell sharply last year. Short Attention Span Theater has changed venues and is nowhoused on YouTube. Online video is killing the video star. Over at MTV Networks, the layoffs began inFebruary. No huge surprise there. Two years ago in this very publication, "The Chaos Scenario" predicted that thepillars of old media would soon come tumbling down. That the MTV pillar had Public Enemy and GeorgeMichael and 'NSync posters plastered all over it, and was deemed the last word in modern TV, makes itespecially noteworthy -- but by no means unique. Since "Chaos":In December 2005, Viacom spun off CBS, the so-called Tiffany Network, lest the broadcast businessimpede growth and depress shareholder value.Just before Christmas 2005, Time Inc. laid off 100 employees. Just after Christmas, in January 2006,Time Inc. laid off 100 more employees. In April 2006, Time Inc. laid off 250 more employees -- thelast round of job cuts, the company said. In January, Time Inc. laid off 300 more employees. Nowonder. Since 2001, Time Warner's market capitalization has shrunk to $82 billion from $193 billion.Last fall, ostensibly to promote their new seasons, five broadcast networks bypassed their localaffiliates and gave away new programs online.In October 2006, NBC announced a $750 million cost cutback, including 700 jobs and a moratoriumon scripted programs in the first hour of prime time.In November 2006, Clear Channel -- the boogeyman of media consolidation -- sold to private-equityowners and declared that it wants to unload its TV and small-market radio stations. The sale fetched$38 a share. In 2000, the stock sold at $100 a share.The Minneapolis Star Tribune, acquired by McClatchy in 1998 for $1.2 billion, was sold to privateinvestors in December 2006 for $530 million.In 2000, Chicago-based Tribune Co. was valued at $12 billion. It then bought Times-Mirror Co. formore than $8 billion. At this writing, with Tribune Co. for sale as a whole or in part, the value of themerged company is $7.34 billion.YouTube. Two years ago, it -- much less Joost and Revver and Brightcove and the online-videoindustry in general -- did not exist.Nor does the disruption end there. Since spring 2005, according to Magna04/24/2007 01:53 PMLoading “Advertising Age”Page 3 of 11http://adage.com/print?article_id=115712This is the fourth installment ofAd Age Ad Review columnistBob Garfield's "Chronicles ofthe Media Revolution" series inwhich he explores ongoingtechnological upheaval acrossthe media and marketingindustries. His three earlierinstallments are:YouTube Grows Up -- but WhatDoes It Mean?Bob Garfield Explores theImplications of the Video-Sharing RevolutionInside the New World ofListenomicsHow the Open SourceRevolution Impacts Your BrandsBob Garfield's "Chaos Scenario"A Look at the MarketingIndustry's Coming DisasterGarfield's weekly columns anddaily blog can be found in theBob Garfield section of thisAdAge.com website.ALSO: Comment on thisarticle in the 'Your Opinion'box below.Global USA, DVR penetration has doubled to 20% from 10%, and ForresterResearch predicts it will reach half of U.S. households within three years --well beyond the threshold at which 40% of advertisers say they willdramatically reduce their TV buys. Meanwhile, after years of steady growth inspite of steadily declining audiences, the broadcast-upfront market last yearwas down 5%. Coca-Cola, never a big upfront player, pulled out altogether.So did Johnson & Johnson, which shifted $250 million online. According toTNS, General Motors slashed $600