Notes Sept 26 2013 1980 election brings up campaigning and strategies How People Vote Past political scientists wanted to talk about how people should vote People must be informed about issues candidates and their backgrounds After research vote for national benefit vote that makes sense Problem nobody really votes that way nobody spends hours researching and decides whats best for the nation New theory of voting behavior friends neighbors theory People vote with influence from their friends neighbors and coworkers People tend to vote like their social group Advantage predicts very well Disadvantage doesn t really explain anything Has to start somewhere seems like it s a never ending asking of friends neighbors New model and more scientific 1936 during Great Depression FDR president Literary Digest would send questionnaire every 4 years asking who are you voting for 1936 sent 5 million questionnaires 2 million answers overwhelmingly prefer Republicans they reported that Republicans would win by a landslide but exact opposite happened Democrats won by a landslide A lot of people were out of work so people didn t have enough money for a car phone or magazine subscriptions so people that didn t have money weren t sent money but they still voted for the Democrats Haves Republicans have money luxuries Have nots Democrats don t have money and luxuries Scientific polling has to be a random sample New Theory Psychological Theory or Hardy s Issue Candidate Theory Model People have positive and negative thoughts and feelings about parties issues and candidates they vote accordingly Research done in 1950s found that of the 3 factors parties was the most important factor while issues and candidates have a bit of influence but not as much We tend to see issues and candidates through the lens of partisanship Over the years issues and candidates have become more important but partisanship is still the most important factor There are some issue voters some candidate voters and mostly party voters Question 1 Generally speaking do you consider yourself a Republican Democrat or what Question 2 If Rep Dem Do you consider yourself a strong or not so strong If Ind Do you generally lean towards democrats republicans or neither Strong Dem Weak Dem Lean Dem Pure Ind Lean Rep Weak Rep Strong Rep Strong Dem Weak Lean Dem Pure Ind Weak Lean Rep Strong Rep 18 32 11 25 14 95 83 49 13 2 1940s party voting 1950s Rep nominate Dwight Eisenhower commander of Allied forces he won WWII for us Candidate voting 1964 1968 Civil rights issue voting 1968 1972 Vietnam War issue voting 1976 Nature of the times election jimmy carter 1973 1974 Watergate scandal so Rep party was blamed because it was about Rep president Nixon If things are bad throw out incumbent party if good keep incumbent party 1980 Carter president but now thinking he was in over his head and not capable of handling job Things were bad so they needed a change Reagan Rep nominated he would be oldest president ever he was a movie actor in bad movies Very conservative for the times Mixed feelings for candidate but times were bad so they voted against incumbent party One presidential debate before tied in polls during good for democracy because it informs voters There you go again shows he is not intimidated Carter seemed very stiff but this put Reagan on the same level as the President of the United States very confident makes connection with the audience Are you better off than you were 4 years ago If your answer is yes then your choice is obvious If no then I offer you an alternative Most people answered no if you re not satisfied vote for a change After debate 1 week later Reagan won by 10 points debate had an effect but it wasn t the only reason Reagan vs Walter Mondale how to defeat a very popular president during a good time in economy Tried to throw Reagan off balance very good at debating and anticipating what Reagan is going to say Pivot leave one foot steady and turn the rest of your body Mondale wanted to show he was more alert without being negative Rules candidates are not allowed to talk directly at the opponent Mondale breaks this rule Mondale tells President you lied there you go again won t work again Reagan seemed like he was old and not focused Mondale was sharp There was a spike for Mondale after that debate maybe Reagan isn t up for the job In next debate Reagan was better prepared Mondale is trying to make a joke that Reagan was too old he made a joke back to Mondale about his youth inexperience audience realizes that if he s able to joke its ok that was the end for Mondale 1970s Rational Actors Model use factors and rationale