UT GEO 387H - Climate Change and Water Availability Models

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Climate Change and Water Availability ModelsFreshwater Demand is IncreasingWater Availability in TexasWater Rights Analysis PackageWRAP ProcessNaturalized FlowsSlide 7WRAP and Climate ChangeModeling Climate ChangeSoil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT)Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis GCM (CCCma)Combining ModelsClimate Change and WRAPConclusionPersonal InformationClimate Change and Water Availability ModelsApplying climate change predictionsClark Siler6 Dec 2007Physical Climatology Class PresentationUniversity of Texas at AustinIncorporation of Climate Change in Water Availability Modelingby: Wurbs, RAClimate Change and Water Availability ModelsFreshwater Demand is Increasing•Increases in Population •Urbanization•Increasing Wealth•Aquifer Depletion•Pollution•Climate ChangeClimate Change and Water Availability ModelsWater Availability in Texas•Drought of 1996–Widespread drought where decision-makers had no information on water availability•Senate Bill 1, “Water Bill”–Passed in response to drought•Water Rights Analysis Package (WRAP)–Texas’ official water availability modelClimate Change and Water Availability ModelsWater Rights Analysis Package•Origin and Use–Suite of programs to digitally model and manage water rights in Texas –Developed by Dr. Ralph Wurbs of the Texas Water Resources Institute at Texas A&M–Created ~20 years ago, but gained increased use after Senate Bill 1 (1997)–Official Water Availability Model of TexasClimate Change and Water Availability ModelsWRAP ProcessNaturalized Flows?Climate Change and Water Availability ModelsClimate Change and Water Availability ModelsNaturalized Flows•WRAP is Based on Naturalized FlowsNF naturalized flow GF gaged flowD water supply diversions upstreamRF return flow upstreamEP reservoir evaporation minus precipitationS change in storage in upstream reservoirs•Used to predict reliabilities (water availability)NF = GF + Di – RFi + EPi + SiNFGFDRFEPSClimate Change and Water Availability ModelsWRAP and Climate Change•WRAP cannot directly model climate change•WRAP inputs can be modified to reflect climate change modeled predictionsClimate Change and Water Availability ModelsModeling Climate Change•Models Used in Main Paper:–Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT)–Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis GCM (CCCma)Essentially, all models are wrong, but some are useful.George Box, industrial statisticianClimate Change and Water Availability ModelsSoil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT)•Inputs:–Precipitation–Max/Min Temperature–Land Use–Soils–Land Management–Topography–Hydrogeology–Weather•Hydrologic Unit Model of the United States (HUMUS):–Relative Humidity–Solar Radiation–Wind Speedhttp://www.brc.tamus.edu/swat/•Output:–Daily StreamflowSWAT is a watershed modeling toolClimate Change and Water Availability ModelsCanadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis GCM (CCCma)•Coupled Atmosphere-Ocean Dynamics Model–Inputs include: –Output includes precipitation and max/min temperature–Includes climate-change scenario, IS92a, which employs CO2 increase of 1% per year–Not a toy model–CCCma predictions are relatively high compared to other models•Aggressive climate change model•Is this preferable in this case?•specific humidity•precipitation•soil moisture•cloud cover•moist convection•radiative heating•CO2 concentration•sea level pressure•global mean surface temperature•ocean circulation•sea ice / snow•seasonally frozen soil moisturehttp://www.cccma.bc.ec.gc.ca/Climate Change and Water Availability ModelsCombining Models•Uncertainty may be introduced when combining a global and basin-scale modelClimate Change and Water Availability ModelsClimate Change and WRAP1. Precipitation and temperature modeled results for 2040-2060 are retrieved from the CCCma GCM results: one set reflecting climate change, one without climate change.2. GCM modeled data is used to alter SWAT input which is used as a representation of 2050 climate.3. SWAT uses this data along with historical data to produce sets of daily streamflow values. These are used to adjust WRAP inputs of naturalized flows (and reservoir evaporation).4. WRAP is run with historical and climate changed data. Results are used to assess possible future water availability.OutputOutputOutputInputInputClimate Change and Water Availability ModelsPhysical Climatology Class PresentationUniversity of Texas at AustinPhysical Climatology Class PresentationUniversity of Texas at AustinConclusion•Climate change analyses introduce additional uncertainties to the highly stochastic water resources environment•WRAP can be used to model future climate changed water availability–Can analyze various climate change scenarios•Similar processes can be executed to use any combination of compatible climate modelsPersonal Information•Clark SilerGraduate StudentUniversity of Texas at Austin Geospatial Hydrology Water ResourcesCRWRBS – Brigham Young University Civil [email protected]


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UT GEO 387H - Climate Change and Water Availability Models

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