WhatShanlWeMam?TheTragedyoftheCommonsThepopulationproblemhasnotechnicalsolution;itrequiresafundamentalextensioninmorality.GarrettHardinAttheendofathoughtfularticleonthefutureofnuclearwar,WiesnerandYork(1)concludedthat:"Bothsidesinthearmsraceare...confrontedbythedilemmaofsteadilyincreasingmilitarypowerandsteadilydecreasingnationalsecurity.Itisourconsideredprofes-sionaljudgmentthatthisdilemmahasnotechnicalsolution.Ifthegreatpow-erscontinuetolookforsolutionsintheareaofscienceandtechnologyonly,theresultwillbetoworsenthesitua-tion."Iwouldliketofocusyourattentionnotonthesubjectofthearticle(na-tionalsecurityinanuclearworld)butonthekindofconclusiontheyreached,namelythatthereisnotechnicalsolu-tiontotheproblem.Animplicitandalmostuniversalassumptionofdiscus-sionspublishedinprofessionalandsemipopularscientificjournalsisthattheproblemunderdiscussionhasatechnicalsolution.Atechnicalsolutionmaybedefinedasonethatrequiresachangeonlyin.thetechniquesofthenaturalsciences,demandinglittleornothinginthewayofchangeinhumanvaluesorideasofmorality.Inourday(thoughnotinearliertimes)technicalsolutionsarealwayswelcome.Becauseofpreviousfailuresinprophecy,ittakescouragetoassertthatadesiredtechnicalsolutionisnotpossible.WiesnerandYorkexhibitedthiscourage;publishinginasciencejournal,theyinsistedthatthesolutiontotheproblemwasnottobefoundinthenaturalsciences.Theycautiouslyqualifiedtheirstatementwiththephrase,"Itisourconsideredprofes-Theauthorisprofessorofbiology,UniversityofCalifornia,SantaBarbara.ThisarticleisbasedonapresidentialaddresspresentedbeforethemeetingofthePacificDivisionoftheAmeri-canAssociationfortheAdvancementofScienceatUtahStateUniversity,Logan,25June1968.13DECEMBER1968sionaljudgment...."Vhethertheywererightornotisnottheconcernofthepresentarticle.Rather,theconcernhereiswiththeimportantconceptofaclassofhumanproblemswhichcanbecalled"notechnicalsolutionproblems,"and,morespecifically,withtheidentifi-cationanddiscussionofoneofthese.Itiseasytoshowthattheclassisnotanullclass.Recallthegameoftick-tack-toe.Considertheproblem,"HowcanIwin.thegameoftick-tack-toe?"ItiswellknownthatIcannot,ifIas-sume(inkeepingwiththeconventionsofgametheory)thatmyopponentun-derstandsthegameperfectly.Putan-otherway,thereisno"technicalsolu-tion"totheproblem.Icanwinonlybygivingaradicalmeaningtotheword"win."Icanhitmyopponentoverthehead;orIcandrughim;orIcanfalsifytherecords.EverywayinwhichI"win"involves,insomesense,anabandon-mentofthegame,asweintuitivelyun-derstandit.(Icanalso,ofcourse,openlyabandonthegame-refusetoplayit.Thisiswhatmostadultsdo.)Theclassof"Notechnicalsolutionproblems"hasmembers.Mythesisisthatthe"populationproblem,"ascon-ventionallyconceived,isamemberofthisclass.Howitisconventionallycon-ceivedneedssomecomment.Itisfairtosaythatmostpeoplewho'anguishoverthepopulationproblemaretryingtofindawaytoavoidtheevilsofover-populationwithoutrelinquishinganyoftheprivilegestheynowenjoy.Theythinkthatfarmingtheseasordevelop-ingnewstrainsofwheatwillsolvetheproblem-technologically.Itrytoshowherethatthesolutiontheyseekcannotbefound.Thepopulationproblemcan-notbesolvedinatechnicalway,anymorethancantheproblemofwinningthegameoftick-tack-toe.Population,asMalthussaid,naturallytendstogrow"geometrically,"or,aswewouldnowsay,exponentially.Inafiniteworldthismeansthatthepercapitashareoftheworld'sgoodsmuststeadilydecrease.Isoursafiniteworld?Afairdefensecanbeputforwardfortheviewthattheworldisinfinite;orthatwedonotknowthatitisnot.But,intermsofthepracticalproblemsthatwemustfaceinthenextfewgenera-tionswiththeforeseeabletechnology,itisclearthatwewillgreatlyincreasehumanmiseryifwedonot,duringtheimmediatefuture,assumethattheworldavailabletotheterrestrialhumanpop-ulationisfinite."Space"isnoescape(2).Afiniteworldcansupportonlyafinitepopulation;therefore,populationgrowthmusteventuallyequalzero.(Thecaseofperpetualwidefluctuationsaboveandbelowzeroisatrivialvariantthatneednotbediscussed.)Whenthisconditionismet,whatwillbethesitua-tionofmankind?Specifically,canBen-tham'sgoalof"thegreatestgoodforthegreatestnumber"berealized?No-fortworeasons,eachsufficientbyitself.Thefirstisatheoreticalone.Itisnotmathematicallypossibletomaximizefortwo(ormore)variablesatthesametime.ThiswasclearlystatedbyvonNeumannandMorgenstern(3),buttheprincipleisimplicitinthetheoryofpartialdifferentialequations,datingbackatleasttoD'Alembert(1717-1783).Thesecondreasonspringsdirectlyfrombiologicalfacts.Tolive,anyorganismmusthaveasourceofenergy(forexample,food).Thisenergyisutilizedfortwopuposes:meremain-tenanceandwork.Forman,mainte-nanceofliferequiresabout1600kilo-caloriesaday("maintenancecalories').Anythingthathedoesoverandabovemerelystayingalivewillbedefinedaswork,andissupportedby"workcal-ories"whichhetakesin.Workcaloriesareusednotonlyforwhatwecallworkincommonspeech;theyarealsore-quiredforallformsofenjoyment,fromswimmingandautomobileracingtoplayingmusicandwritingpoetry.Ifourgoalistomaximizepopulationitisobviouswhatwemustdo:Wemustmaketheworkcaloriesperpersonap-proachasclosetozeroaspossible.Nogourmetmeals,novacations,nosports,nomusic,noliterature,noart.. ..Ithinkthateveryonewillgrant,without1243 on February 4, 2009 www.sciencemag.orgDownloaded
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