Chapter 7Chapter 7 Outline: PopulationChapter 7: Learning Objectives1.A Brief History of World PopulationThe Demographic Transition (Figure 7.1, 7.2)Stages of Population GrowthThe Demographic Situation Today2.The Causes of Population GrowthWhy Population Growth DeclinedThe Economics of ChildbearingEconomist Gary Becker Theory of Household EconomicsThe Demand for ChildrenBeckers Basic Model3.Population Growth & Economic DevelopmentPopulation and AccumulationDependency RatioPopulation and Market FailuresThe Population DebatePopulation PolicyPopulation PolicyMissing Women & GirlsFig. 7.1: World Population HistoryThe Causes of Population GrowthFig. 7.2 Democratic Transition in EuropeFig. 7.2 : Democratic Transition in EuropeFig. 7.3 Democratic Transition in Developing CountriesFig. 7.3 Democratic Transition in Developing CountriesBox 7.1: Relative decline in Fertility RatesTable 7.1: Trends in the World PopulationFig. 7.4: Historical Projections of World Population GrowthPopulation MomentumBox 7.2 Population MomentumSlide 33Box 7.2 bottomTable 7.2: World 10 Most Populated NationsFig. 7.5: Pop.Growth & GDP GrowthBox 7.3 topBox 7.3 Population and Age Structure in RussiaFig. 7.6 : Fertility Rates by Mothers EducationBox 7.4: Missing Girls & WomenChapter 7: Summary OutlineChapter 7: Summary OutlineEnd Chapter 7Chapter 7PopulationNorton Media LibraryDwight H. PerkinsSteven RadeletDavid L. LindauerChapter 7 Outline: Population1.A Brief History of World Population –The Demographic Transition –The Demographic Situation Today –The Demographic Future 2.The Causes of Population Growth –Thomas Malthus, Population “Pessimist” –Why Birth Rates Decline 3.Population Growth and Economic Development –Population and Accumulation –Population and Productivity –Population and Market Failures 4.Population Policy –Family Planning –Authoritarian ApproachesChapter 7: Learning Objectives•Demographic terms such as the birthrate, the death rate, life expectancy, and the total fertility rate. •Major features of world population history, including the demographic transition. •Current demographic conditions in developing countries, including high dependency ratios, rapid urbanization, and strong demographic momentum despite declining fertility rates. •The main determinants of the crude birthrate and the theories of fertility that relate family size to the economic costs and benefits of having children. •The complex relationship between population growth and economic growth. •The rationale for government intervention of any kind to influence individual fertility outcomes. •The range of policies used in developing countries to slow down population growth, including family planning programs and measures that alter incentives to have children. •1.A Brief History of World Population–The Demographic Transition (Figure 7.1, 7.2) Rapid Population Growth is a recent phenomenon in human history.It took more than 10,000 years for the world to reach one billion in 1804.It took only 125 years to add the next billion or double the population to 2 billion .– Annual population was 0.08% from 1AD to 1800 Population explosion occurred in the 1960s &70s –World population reached 5 billion in 1987 and six billion in 1999. Between 1945-2004, population growth reaches an average of 1.6% per year, with no historical precedence.The Demographic Transition (Figure 7.1, 7.2)•Demographic transition: When population starts with low growth rates due to high birth rates and high death rates, moves through rapid growth stage with high birth rates and low death rates and later becomes stable with low-growth rate where both birth and deaths are low.•Demographic Transition in Europe: Finland 1785-2003 (see figure 7. 2)Stages of Population Growth The 3 stages of population growth• Stage 1: low growth due to high death rates and high birth rates•Stage 2. high growth rates driven by high birth rates and low death rates •Stage 3. Stable or falling growth rate due to low birth rates and low death rates•See Democratic transition in developing region (Figure 7.3)The Demographic Situation Today•In 2002 the world population picked at 6.2 billion with 15% in ICs and 85% in LICs•Total fertility rate in industrial nations has declined. Population is below 2% even less in Europe, Japan, and negative in a few countries such as Italy.•See Table 7.1 for levels of Trends in Population growth by region2.The Causes of Population Growth•Thomas Malthus was Population “Pessimist”•Malthus argued populations grows because of “passion between the sexes” that leads to rapid population growth. He argued population grows geometrically and food production grows arithmetically at best, leading to famines and starvation•It can only prevented by natural “positive checks” such as epidemics, famines, plague, natural disasters, and wars.•Malthus did not live long enough to see European population growth decline.•Why did Birth Rates Decline in spite of Malthus pessimism?Why Population Growth Declined•All societies control their birth rates thru a natural process•Children impose costs and incur benefits•Economic Costs of Children: Explicit (cash outlays) & Implicit (opportunity costs)•Viewing children as an “economic decision” has the following implicationsThe Economics of Childbearing•1.Fertility should be higher when children earn income and contribute to the household•2.Reducing infant deaths should lower fertility•3. Institutionalized social security and pension will lower the need for parents to depend on their children so less children are desired by parents.•4. Fertility should be lower if there is more opportunity for employment for couples, especially for women.•5. Fertility may be higher with higher income??. •The first 4 are empirically supported. The last point is not since income growth is negatively related to number of children. Poorer families appear to have children.Economist Gary Becker Theory of Household Economics•Gary Becker of the University of Chicago analyzed whether children are “normal” or “inferior” goods.•He argued couples maximize joint total Utility function (U) from having children which is a function of the following factors: •Number of children, child quality (associated with health &education), goods and services,- subject to constraints of time, income or cost of goods and services, and cultural constraints.The Demand for