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Rutgers University MS 552 - Changes in Sea Level and Coastal lines of Delaware Bay

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Slide 1Slide 2Slide 3Slide 4Slide 5Slide 6Slide 7Slide 8Slide 9Slide 10Slide 11Slide 12Slide 13Slide 14Slide 15Slide 16Changes in Sea Level and Coastal lines of Delaware BayZhiren WangGuided by: Dale Haidvogel, John Wilkin, & Bob Chant Lectured by: Mark Miller, Steve Decker, & Ben Kravitz Basic contents:*Background *Data resources*Sea level change & its diagnosis*Coastal line change of Delaware Bay*Some Neighbourhood of Delaware Bay*Summary*ReferencesBackground•Coastal regions, most vulnerable to climate change --concentrated with ~1/4 of the global population --having climate-sensitive ecosystem.•Global sea level rose about 1.8mm per year over 1961 to 2003.•Sea level would rise about 7m if Greenland ice sheet completely disappeared with global warming (2~5oC) for millennia.•Sea level would rise about 57m if Antarctic Ice Sheet melted completely.Data resources 1992-2009•3-second topography data from NGDC; •10-day Global sea level anomaly from TOPEX & JASON products •hourly verified mean sea level for Delaware Bay from NWLP•3-hr surface wind, precipitation, run off & evaporation from NASA-NARR•daily river discharge from USGS•Etc..Sea level rose for period 1992-2009? Yes!How about sea level range?Local climate conditions do not support the sea level riseCoastal line change induced by MSL variationMaximum vs minimum MSL-induced coastal linesInfluence on Some Neighbourhood of Delaware BaySummary•Global & North Atlantic sea levels increased with trend 1.17 & 0.092 mm/year, but their sea level ranges decreased with trend -12.9 & -60 mm/year, for 1992 to 2008, based on global Jason & Topex SSHA. •The sea level & its range of Delaware Bay increased by 4.92 & 48.2 mm/year, faster and range-bigger than global background did. The water area & its range increased 23.6 & 13.6 km2/year, with the variation of 20 to 30% of the Bay’s area, for the period 1992-Oct.2009, based on NWLP hourly mean sea levels. With a sea level rise, high tidal water level can be intensified (reaching 4m in 1999), endangering some of the neighbors of Delaware Bay.•For Delaware Bay with decreasing precipitation minus evaporation and increasing Bay-crossing wind, the local conditions conduce to reduce the sea level of Delaware Bay, but can’t balance sea-level-rising background, the increasing run-off and global sea level. Climatic background contributed to sea level rise of Delaware Bay.•The increasing run-off (based on both NARR and USGS data) vs decreasing local precipitation implies an increasing ice-melt for 1992 to Oct.2009.References•Bindoff, N.L., J.Willebrand, V.Artale, A, Cazenave, J. Gregory, S.Gulev, K.Hanawa, C.Le Quéré, S.Levitus, Y.Nojiri, C.K.Shum, L.D.Talley and A.Unnikrishnan (2007), Observations: Oceanic Climate Change and Sea Level. In: Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Solomon, S., D.Qin, M.Manning, Z.Chen, M.Marqis, K.B.Averyt, M.Tignor and H.L.Miller (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA.•Copper, J.A.G., and F.Navas (2004), Natural bathymetric change as a control on century-scale shoreline behaviour. Geology, 32, 513-561.•DiLorenzo J.L., Huang, P-S., Thatcher, M.L.,and Najarian, T.O. (1994), Dredging Impacts on Delaware Estuary Tides, American Society of Civil Engineers, J. of Waterway, Port, Coastal, and Ocean Engineering, 86-104. •Divins,D.L. and D. Metzger (2009), National Geophysical Data Center (NGDC) Coastal Relief Model data (http://www.ngdc.noaa.gov/mgg/coastal/coastal.html). Data sources include the US National Ocean Service Hydrographic Database, the US Geological Survey (USGS), Monterey Bay Aquarium Research Institute (MBARI), US Army Corps of Engineers LIDAR (SHOALS), and various other academic institutions.•Lemke, P., J.Pen, R.B.Alley, I.Allison, J.Carrasco, G.Flato, Y.Fujii, G.Kaser, P.Mote, R.H.Thomas and T.Zhang, 2007: Observations: Changes in Snow, Ice and Frozen Ground. In: Climate Change (2007), The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Solomon, S., D.Qin, M.Manning, Z.Chen, M.Marqis, K.B.Averyt, M.Tignor and H.L.Miller (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA.•Lenny Bernstein, Peter Bosch, Osvaldo Canziani, Zhenlin Chen, Renate Christ, Ogunlade Davidson, William Hare, Saleemul Huq, David Karoly, Vladimir Kattsov, Zbigniew Kundzewicz, Jian Liu, Ulrike Lohmann, Martin Manning, Taroh Matsuno, Bettina Menne, Bert Metz, Monirul Mirza, Neville Nicholls, Leonard Nurse, Rajendra Pachauri, Jean Palutikof, Martin Parry, Dahe Qin, Nijavalli Ravindranath, Andy Reisinger, Jiawen Ren, Keywan Riahi, Cynthia Rosenzweig, Matilde Rusticucci, Stephen Schneider, Youba Sokona, Susan Solomon, Peter Stott, Ronald Stouffer, Taishi Sugiyama, Rob Swart, Dennis Tirpak, Coleen Vogel, Gary Yohe, 2007: Climate change (2007), Synthesis report—An assessment of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, adopted section by section at IPCC Plenary XXVII (Valencia, Spain, 12-17 November 2007), formally agreed statement of the IPCC concerning key findings and uncerntainties contained in the Working Group contributions to the Fourth Assessment Report.•McLean, R.F., and J.-S. Shen (2006), From foreshore to fordune: Foredune development over the last 30 years at Moruya Beach, New South Wales, Australia. J. Coastal Res., 22, 28-36.•NASA-JPL: The National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Physical Oceanography Distributed Active Archive Center at the Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology.•NWLP & NWLON: The National Water Level Program (NWLP) and the National Water Level Observation Network (NWLON), http://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/nwlon.html•DDNREC: The Delaware Department of Natural Resources and Environmental Control: http://www.dnrec.delaware.gov•Trenberth, K.E., P.D.Jones, P.Ambenje, R.Bojariu, D.Easterling, A.Klein Tank, D.Parker, F.Rahimzadeh, J.A.Renwick, M.Rusticucci, B.Soden and P.Zhai (2007), Observations: Surface and Atmospheric Climate Change. In: Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Solomon, S., D.Qin, M.Manning, Z.Chen, M.Marqis, K.B.Averyt, M.Tignor


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Rutgers University MS 552 - Changes in Sea Level and Coastal lines of Delaware Bay

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