Changes in Sea Level and Coastal lines of Delaware Bay Zhiren Wang Dale Haidvogel John Wilkin Bob Chant Lectured by Mark Miller Steve Decker Ben Kravitz Guided by Basic contents Background Data resources Sea level change its diagnosis Coastal line change of Delaware Bay Some Neighbourhood of Delaware Bay Summary References Background Coastal regions most vulnerable to climate change concentrated with 1 4 of the global population having climate sensitive ecosystem Global sea level rose about 1 8mm per year over 1961 to 2003 Sea level would rise about 7m if Greenland ice sheet completely disappeared with global warming 2 5oC for millennia Sea level would rise about 57m if Antarctic Ice Sheet melted completely Data resources 1992 2009 3 second topography data from NGDC 10 day Global sea level anomaly from TOPEX JASON products hourly verified mean sea level for Delaware Bay from NWLP 3 hr surface wind precipitation run off evaporation from NASA NARR daily river discharge from USGS Etc Sea level rose for period 1992 2009 Yes How about sea level range Local climate conditions do not support the sea level rise Coastal line change induced by MSL variation Maximum vs minimum MSL induced coastal lines Influence on Some Neighbourhood of Delaware Bay Summary Global North Atlantic sea levels increased with trend 1 17 0 092 mm year but their sea level ranges decreased with trend 12 9 60 mm year for 1992 to 2008 based on global Jason Topex SSHA The sea level its range of Delaware Bay increased by 4 92 48 2 mm year faster and range bigger than global background did The water area its range increased 23 6 13 6 km2 year with the variation of 20 to 30 of the Bay s area for the period 1992Oct 2009 based on NWLP hourly mean sea levels With a sea level rise high tidal water level can be intensified reaching 4m in 1999 endangering some of the neighbors of Delaware Bay For Delaware Bay with decreasing precipitation minus evaporation and increasing Bay crossing wind the local conditions conduce to reduce the sea level of Delaware Bay but can t balance sea levelrising background the increasing run off and global sea level Climatic background contributed to sea level rise of Delaware Bay The increasing run off based on both NARR and USGS data vs decreasing local precipitation implies an increasing ice melt for 1992 to Oct 2009 References Bindoff N L J Willebrand V Artale A Cazenave J Gregory S Gulev K Hanawa C Le Qu r S Levitus Y Nojiri C K Shum L D Talley and A Unnikrishnan 2007 Observations Oceanic Climate Change and Sea Level In Climate Change 2007 The Physical Science Basis Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Solomon S D Qin M Manning Z Chen M Marqis K B Averyt M Tignor and H L Miller eds Cambridge University Press Cambridge United Kingdom and New York NY USA Copper J A G and F Navas 2004 Natural bathymetric change as a control on century scale shoreline behaviour Geology 32 513 561 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From foreshore to fordune Foredune development over the last 30 years at Moruya Beach New South Wales Australia J Coastal Res 22 28 36 NASA JPL The National Aeronautics and Space Administration NASA Physical Oceanography Distributed Active Archive Center at the Jet Propulsion Laboratory California Institute of Technology NWLP NWLON The National Water Level Program NWLP and the National Water Level Observation Network NWLON http tidesandcurrents noaa gov nwlon html DDNREC The Delaware Department of Natural Resources and Environmental Control http www dnrec delaware gov Trenberth K E P D Jones P Ambenje R Bojariu D Easterling A Klein Tank D Parker F Rahimzadeh J A Renwick M Rusticucci B Soden and P Zhai 2007 Observations Surface and Atmospheric Climate Change In Climate Change 2007 The Physical Science Basis Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Solomon S D Qin M Manning Z Chen M Marqis K B Averyt M Tignor and H L 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