OPPORTUNITIES FOR LATIN AMERICA?THE WAR ON TERROR1. TURN TO THE NORTH2. SUBREGIONAL HEGEMONY3. REVOLUTIONARY OPTIONS?4. THIRD WORLD SOLIDARITY5. OUTSIDE THE HEMISPHERESlide 8ECONOMIC DIMENSIONSPOLITICAL DIMENSIONSBILATERAL RELATIONSHIPSPOSSIBLE DISTINCTIONSOPPORTUNITIES FOR LATIN AMERICA?THE WAR ON TERROR•U.S.-imposed rules of the game•Ideological divisions: left, right, center•Prevalence of democratic discourse•Focus on “strategic options”•Dubious alternatives:–Bolivarian dream of collective unity–Rule of international law, organizations1. TURN TO THE NORTH•Vicente Fox (Mexico)–Hopes for immigration reform–NAFTA constraints–Opposition throughout Latin America•Comrades in the War on Terror –Colombia–Guatemala•The FTA Club–Chile [special case]–Central America + DR–Peru–Colombia?2. SUBREGIONAL HEGEMONY•Brazil (Lula)–Grandeza brasileira–Role in Haiti–Resistance to FTAA•Venezuela (Chávez)–ALBA (Alternativa Bolivariana para las Américas)–International assistance programs–Alliances with Cuba and “pink tide” countries–Denunciations of Bush and USA–Resistance to FTAA (r.i.p.)3. REVOLUTIONARY OPTIONS?•Cuba (Castros)–Armed rebellion no longer a path–Fatigue of revolutionary society–Institutionalization of charisma•Venezuela (Chávez)–“Socialism for the 21st Century”–Linkage to Cuba and Fidel•Bolivia (Morales)–Indigenismo–Politics of ethnic reivindicación4. THIRD WORLD SOLIDARITY•Brazil (Lula)–WTO–Group of 20+ (a.k.a. 21)–G4 (re UN Security Council), BRIC•Venezuela (Chávez)–Non-Aligned Movement–UN Security Council–Petroleum exporters5. OUTSIDE THE HEMISPHERE•Europe–Divisions over Iraq–Concern about EU future–FTAs with Mexico, Chile–Distancing from/by Spain•Asia–Withdrawal of Japan–Eruption of “China fever”–PRC “strategic partnerships” with Brazil, Venezuela, Argentina, Mexico; “cooperative partnership” with Chile, “friendly and cooperative relations” with CubaIS LATIN AMERICA BREAKING AWAY?ECONOMIC DIMENSIONS•Exports to China, 2008:–Argentina 9.0%–Brazil 12.4%–Chile 4.8%–Mexico 0.7%–Cuba 18.4% •Liberation from IMF:–Argentina 2005 ($9.8 bn)–Brazil 2005 ($15.5 bn)–IMF “relegated to sidelines”POLITICAL DIMENSIONS•Distaste for GWB and U.S. policies•Emergence of “new Left”•Resuscitation of Cuba•Regional organizations w/o USA:–Rio Group (1986, 23 members)–Latin American Summit on Integration and Development (2008, 33 members)–CELAC (2010, 33 members)–Other: Ibero-American Summits (1991), UNASUR (2005) –MERCOSUR (1991, 4 members plus)–UNASUR (2005)–Mega-summits (2008, 33 members)BILATERAL RELATIONSHIPS•Argentina: “a distant relationship”•Brazil: “getting better all the time”•Chile: “cooperative friendship”•Colombia: “strategic partners or uncertain allies?”POSSIBLE DISTINCTIONS•Regional: South America vs. Mexico/Central America/Caribbean•Political A: Right vs. Left•Political B: Moderate vs. Radical•U.S. Power: Diminished or