Causes and Prevention of War Nuclear War in Europe A Thought Experiment American foreign policy in the near future will be shaped by theories regarding nuclear proliferation thought experiments which examine various historical situations and assume nuclear power are essential tests of these theories An obvious starting point for such thought experiments is World War II which ended with the advent of atomic weapons Political scientists should ask themselves would World War II in Europe have been more intense if all major powers Germany France the Soviet Union the United Kingdom and the United States had had nuclear weapons and secure second strike capabilities This thought experiment is simple to perform and yields an interesting answer despite the assumption of nuclear power the number of lives lost would have been only slightly higher than the number observed historically but the war would have been shorter and would have had wide reaching environmental effects stemming from the use of nuclear weapons By defining intensity as the net cost of war per unit time more death and destruction in a shorter period is axiomatically more intense Two theories tested by this thought experiment are the theory that nuclear weapons lead states to feel more secure making them less likely to go to war and the theory that nuclear weapons have little effect on the likelihood that states will go to war but make wars more intense If World War II could have been averted through the introduction of nuclear weapons the first hypothesis is likely true but if World War II would have occurred regardless this is strong evidence for the second hypothesis The sequence of events leading to nuclear war in Europe can be deduced by applying modern strategies to the nations assumed to have atomic weapons An un deterrable Hitler would have brought war to Europe regardless of the nuclear situation Had Hitler used nuclear weapons in this conquest a European nuclear war would have decimated all nations involved ending the war through total destruction If Hitler had recognized the danger in using nuclear weapons and had instead engaged in conventional warfare history would have played out unchanged until the collapse of France when strategy would have dictated the use of nuclear weapons A nuclear war initiated by a dying France would have decimated much of Europe making further conflict impossible Before these postulates regarding an alternate history can be accepted a basic understanding of history must be established In the mid to late 1930 s the Nazi party began an aggressive military build up When Germany invaded Czechoslovakia in 1939 Britain and France agreed to neutrality in hopes that Hitler would be satiated The Nazi invasion of Poland later that year prompted a strong reaction from France and Britain due in part to a mutual assistance treaty signed by Britain and Poland1 After sporadic fighting in Poland Belgium and Holland Germany invaded France and quickly overran the British and French defense force resulting in the Miracle at Dunkirk where over 300 hundred thousand British soldiers were evacuated from Dunkirk a beach in Northern France2 Despite fighting in Europe the United States remained neutral until the infamous attack on Pearl Harbor in December 1941 Over the next four years the industrial might of the United States allowed an effective European campaign against the Nazis coming to an end on V E day March 8 1945 when fighting ended after the unconditional surrender of all German forces the previous day3 Most political scientists see the German invasion of Poland as a critical point in World War II The invasion made Britain and France feel insecure enough to desire war because Poland was a large and resource rich country Some might speculate that with nuclear weapons Britain and France would have felt secure enough to allow Poland to fall but this is unlikely The British right viewed Poland as an essential buffer against communism and Poland s resources would have substantially enhanced the 1 World War Two in Europe The History Place 01 May 2009 http www historyplace com worldwar2 timeline ww2time htm 2David J Knowles BBC NEWS UK The miracle of Dunkirk BBC NEWS News Front Page 01 May 2009 http news bbc co uk 1 hi uk 765004 stm 3 World War Two in Europe 3 German war effort Poland s large size would have allowed Germany more missile or bomber bases enabling the expansion of German nuclear stockpiles without creating large vulnerable depots A nuclear situation would have increased rather than diminished tensions because the occupation of Poland would have resulted in a rapid change in the nuclear status quo In addition to these strategic consideration a German Soviet Border would have increased regional tensions giving Britain and France reason to intervene The increased security derived from British and French nuclear arsenals would have been offset by fears of German nuclear expansion and regional conflict allowing history to play out unchanged Nuclear strategies rely heavily on deterrence and therefore before considering an alternate history it is important to establish that Hitler and the German people could not have been deterred Psychology suggests that Hitler was un deterrable his actions implied mental instability and an active desire for war The ferocity with which he undertook the extermination of the various peoples exemplified his appetite for the macabre and eyewitnesses have stated that upon receiving concessions from France and Britain he was furious because war had been delayed This mental picture is compounded by Hitler s suicidal tendencies which indicated a lack of concern for his own life4 Similarly by the time that France and Britain realized deterrence would be necessary there is strong evidence that the German people could not have been deterred In 1939 Germany was a highly militarized society and much propaganda had been effectively disseminated to the public5 Although the German people may have been more easily deterred than Hitler it is unlikely that they would have ever realized the threat because of Germany s highly effective propaganda History also indicates that German military leaders would have been strongly influenced by Hitler He had earlier forced the German military to adopt a strategy Blitzkrieg which most German generals thought absurd and most of the early German military campaigns were incited and orchestrated by Hitler Perhaps the 4 Sebastian Haffner The Meaning