Earth’s Changing Environment Lecture 7Fossil FuelsUS Energy Consumption (QBtu)Oil and Natural GasOilNatural GasOilOil RefinerySlide 9Petroleum ProductsGasoline PricesSlide 12Reserves and ResourcesOil and Gas UnitsExample Problem 1Global Oil and Gas Reserves, Resources, ConsumptionUS Oil and Gas Reserves, Resources, ConsumptionGlobal Oil ResourcesGlobal Oil ProductionGlobal Natural Gas ResourcesGlobal Natural Gas ProductionExample Problem 2When will worldwide conventional oil production peak?US Production Peaked in 1970Published Estimates of World Oil Ultimate RecoveryPowerPoint PresentationCampbell-Laherrère World Oil Production Estimates, 1930-2050Slide 28Slide 29Slide 30Slide 31When will Global Oil Production Peak?Earth’s Changing EnvironmentLecture 7Global and USFossil Fuel Resources: Oil and Natural GasFossil FuelsFormed 50 million to 350 million years ago from plants and animals.Fuels•Petroleum•Natural Gas•Coal•Shale Oil•Tar SandsUS Energy Consumption (QBtu)Petroleum 38 (39%)Natural Gas 23 (24%)Oil and Natural GasOil Hydrocarbon chainsCH2-CH2- CH2-----2CH2 + 3O2  2CO2 + 2H2ONatural GasPrimarily MethaneCH4CH4 + 2O2  2H2O + CO2OilCrude oil is measured in barrels. A 42-U.S. gallon barrel of crude oil provides slightly more than 44 gallons of petroleum products.Oil RefineryAfter crude oil is removed from the ground, it is sent to a refineryThe crude oil is separated into useable petroleum products.Oil RefineryA 42-U.S. gallon barrel of crude oil provides slightly more than 44 gallons of petroleum products. One barrel of crude oil, when refined, produces 20 gallons of finished motor gasoline.Petroleum ProductsGasoline PricesNatural GasNatural gas prices have fluctuated because of variable supply.New pipelines from Alaska may solve some of this problem.Reserves and ResourcesReserves are known sources that are extractable with current technologies at current prices.Resources include sources not currently being exploited because of cost and sources not yet discovered.Oil and Gas UnitsGbo billion barrels of oil. G stands for Giga. Used for global and US oil resourcesTCF trillion cubic feet. Used for global and US natural gas resources.Example Problem 1US annual oil consumption equals 7.2 Gbo. Express this value in millions of barrels per day.US Oil consumption = 7.2x109 bbl/ 365 days = 20 million bbl/day (11 million bbl day imported)Global Oil and Gas Reserves, Resources, ConsumptionOil•Reserves 1,000 Gbo•Resources 1,700 Gbo•Consumption 28 GboNatural Gas•Reserves 5,500 TCF•Resources 10,000 TCF•Consumption 90 TCFUS Oil and Gas Reserves, Resources, ConsumptionOil•Reserves 22 Gbo•Resources 98 Gbo•Consumption 7.2 GboNatural Gas•Reserves 180 TCF•Resources 710 TCF•Consumption 23 TCFGlobal Oil Resources•Saudi Arabia 26%•Iraq 11%•Iran 10%•Kuwait 10%•UAE 6%•Russia 5%•Venezuela 5%•Nigeria 3%•Libya 3%•China 3%•Mexico 2%•United States 2%Global Oil Production•Saudi Arabia 12%•United States 11%•Russia 10%•Iran 5%•Mexico 5%•Norway 5%•China 4%•Venezuela 4%•Canada 4%Global Natural Gas Resources•Russia 29%•Iran 16%•Qatar 13%•Saudi Arabia 4%•UAE 3%•United States 3%•Algeria 3%•Nigeria 3%•Venezuela 3%•Iraq 2%Global Natural Gas Production•Russia 23%•United States 22%•Canada 7%•United Kingdom 4%•Algeria 3%•Netherlands 3%•Indonesia 3%Example Problem 2Assuming constant level of consumption, estimate the lifetime of US oil resources Lifetime = 98 Gbo / 7.2 Gbo/year = 14 years Assuming constant level of consumption, estimate the lifetime of global oil resources Lifetime = 1700 Gbo / 28 Gbo/year = 60 yearsWhat is wrong with these assumptions?When will worldwide conventional oil production peak?Lower 48 Crude Oil Reserves & Production, 1945-200005101520253035401945 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000Crude Oil Reserves, Billion Barrels0.00.51.01.52.02.53.03.54.0Crude Oil Annual Production, Billion BarrelsLower 48ReservesLower 48ProductionPeakProduction1970PeakReserves1959US Production Peaked in 19700 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5 4Trillions of BarrelsUSGS 5% 2000USGS Mean 2000USGS 95% 2000Campbell 1995Masters 1994Campbell 1992Bookout 1989Masters 1987Martin 1984Nehring 1982Halbouty 1981Meyerhoff 1979Nehring 1978Nelson 1977Folinsbee 1976Adams & Kirby 1975Linden 1973Moody 1972Moody 1970Shell 1968Weeks 1959MacNaughton 1953Weeks 1948Pratt 1942Source: USGS and Colin CampbellPublished Estimates of World Oil Ultimate RecoveryDifferent Interpretations of a Hypothetical 6,000 Billion Barrel World Original Oil-in-Place Resource Base 01,0002,0003,0004,0005,0006,000USGS Approach 1995 Campbell/Laherrere Approach UnrecoverableReservesGrowth UndiscoveredProvedReservesCumulativeProduction3,000BillionUnrecovered4,200BillionUnrecovered50%RecoveryFactor withReservesGrowth30%RecoveryFactor40%RecoveryFactorWithoutReservesGrowthReserves Growth Adds 10%Billion BarrelsCampbell-Laherrère World Oil Production Estimates, 1930-2050CampbellProduction Peak200401020304050601900 1925 1950 1975 2000 2025 2050 2075 2100 2125Billion Barrels per YearHistoryMean w/ 2% Growth and2% DeclineMean w/ 2% Growth and10 R/P Ratio DeclineUSGS Estimates of Ultimate Recovery Ultimate Recovery Probability BBls-------------------- ---------Low (95 %) 2,248Mean (expected value) 3,003High (5 %) 3,896 Note: U.S. volumes were added to the USGS foreign volumes to obtain world totals.2016Annual Production Scenarios with 2 Percent Growth Rates and Different Decline Methods2% Growth& 2% Decline20372% Growth& 10 R/P Ratio Decline0102030405060701900 1925 1950 1975 2000 2025 2050 2075 2100 2125Billion Barrels per YearHistoryMeanLow (95 %)High (5 %)USGS Estimates of Ultimate Recovery Ultimate Recovery Probability BBls-------------------- ---------Low (95 %) 2,248Mean (expected value) 3,003High (5 %) 3,896 2 %GrowthDeclineR/P = 10Note: U.S. volumes were added to the USGS foreign volumes to obtain world totals.204720372026Annual Production Scenarios with 2 Percent Growth Rates and Different Resource Levels (Decline R/P = 10)Annual Production Scenarios for the Mean Resource Estimate and Different Growth Rates