DOI: 10.1126/science.285.5428.692 , 692 (1999); 285Science et al.A. Shah,Solar CellsPhotovoltaic Technology: The Case for Thin-Film www.sciencemag.org (this information is current as of December 16, 2006 ):The following resources related to this article are available online at http://www.sciencemag.org/cgi/content/full/285/5428/692version of this article at: including high-resolution figures, can be found in the onlineUpdated information and services, 96 article(s) on the ISI Web of Science. cited byThis article has been http://www.sciencemag.org/cgi/collection/app_physicsPhysics, Applied : subject collectionsThis article appears in the following http://www.sciencemag.org/help/about/permissions.dtl in whole or in part can be found at: this articlepermission to reproduce of this article or about obtaining reprintsInformation about obtaining registered trademark of AAAS. c 2005 by the American Association for the Advancement of Science; all rights reserved. The title SCIENCE is a CopyrightAmerican Association for the Advancement of Science, 1200 New York Avenue NW, Washington, DC 20005. Science (print ISSN 0036-8075; online ISSN 1095-9203) is published weekly, except the last week in December, by the on December 16, 2006 www.sciencemag.orgDownloaded fromslow turnover time for current power genera-tion infrastructure, mean that the energy sec-tor’s extremely low R&D intensity is a causefor concern not only today, but also for decadesto come (12).Responding to Energy andEnvironmental NeedsThe energy technology and policy options ofindustrial and developing nations are closelylinked together in a global energy economy.During the past 50 years the progression tocleaner fuels and more efficient use of fossilfuels has resulted in an annual decrease in theemission of carbon to the atmosphere of about0.08 g of carbon per megajoule of energy pro-duced (13). This rate of “decarbonization” is notsufficient even to meet the modest Kyoto Pro-tocol target of a 5% decrease in greenhouse gas(GHG) emissions from industrial nations by2010. Many scientists have instead argued thatemissions reductions of 70% or more are nec-essary to stabilize the atmospheric GHG con-centrations at 550 or 450 parts per million (5).Achieving these levels would require a doublingor tripling, respectively, of the current rate ofdecarbonization. Without a sustained and di-verse program of energy R&D and implemen-tation, we are crippling our ability to make thenecessary improvements in the global energyeconomy.Declining investments in an area at theheart of the environment-economy nexus isdetrimental for both long-term U.S. energysecurity and for global environmental sus-tainability. First, it is necessary to understandand evaluate the impacts of current energyR&D efforts. Second, meeting the emergingglobal challenges will require increasing bothU.S. and international energy R&D. Finally,a broader collaborative environment is neededto support diverse energy research and imple-mentation options and policies that work withinand between highly industrialized and develop-ing nations.References and Notes1. See, for example, “Unlocking Our Future: Toward aNew National Science Policy” (House Committee onScience, U.S. House of Representatives, 1998); D. E.Stokes, Pasteur’s Quadrant: Basic Science and Tech-nological Innovation (Brookings Institution, Washing-ton, DC, 1997); “Allocating Funds for Science andTechnology” (Committee on Criteria for Federal Sup-port of Research and Development, National Re-search Council, Washington, DC, 1995); R. M. May,Science 275, 793 (1997); ibid. 281, 49 (1998).2. See for example, J. J. Dooley, Energy Policy 26, 547(1998); “Federal Research: Changes in Electricity-Relat-ed R&D Funding,” GAO/RCED-96-203 (U.S. General Ac-counting Office, Washington, DC, 1996); “Federal Ener-gy Research and Development for the Challenges of theTwenty-First Century” (Energy Research and Develop-ment Panel, President’s Committee of Advisors on Sci-ence and Technology, 1997); M. G. Morgan and S. F.Tierney, Issues Sci. Technol. 15, 81 (1998).3. See, for example, A. K. N. Reddy, R. H. Williams, T. B.Johansson, Eds., Energy After Rio: Prospects and Chal-lenges (United Nations Development Program, NewYork, 1997); E. A. Parson and D. W. Keith, Science282, 1053 (1998); R. T. Watson, M. C. Zinyowera, R.Moss, D. J. Dokken, Eds., Climate Change 1995: Im-pacts, Adaptations and Mitigation of Climate Change:Scientific-Technical Analyses (Cambridge Univ. Press,Cambridge, UK, 1996).4. “IEA Energy Technology R&D Statistics, 1974–1995”(International Energy Agency, Organisation for Eco-nomic Cooperation and Development, Paris, 1997).5. This point is illustrated in discussions of the centralrole played by energy technology in responding toclimate change; see M. I. Hoffert et al., Nature 395,881 (1998); A. P. Kinzig and D. M. Kammen, GlobalEnviron. Change 8, 183 (1998).6. See Z. Griliches, Science 237, 31 (1987); R. E. Evenson,P. E. Waggoner, V. W. Ruttan, ibid. 205, 1101 (1979); E.Mansfield, ibid. 175, 477 (1972). For reviews of theeconomic literature see N. L. Stokey, Rev. Econ. Stud.62, 469 (1995); M. I. Nadiri, “Innovations and Techno-logical Spillovers,” NBER Working Paper 4423 (NationalBureau of Economic Research, Cambridge, MA, 1993).7. L. R. Cohen and R. G. Noll, The Technology Pork Barrel(Brookings Institution, Washington, DC, 1991).8. Dollar values (unless otherwise noted) have beenconverted from current to constant 1996 dollarsby using the gross domestic product chain-type priceindex (available at www.bea.doc.gov/bea/dn/0898nip3/table3.htm).9. A linear regression with R&D as the independentvariable and patents as the dependent variable yieldsan R2of 0.72 and a t statistic of 7.0 (significant atthe 1% level).10. A linear regression with energy R&D as the indepen-dent variable and energy-related patents as the de-pendent variable yields an R2of 0.84 and a t statisticof 10.0 (significant at the 1% level).11. The investment-patent record for fossil-fuel, renew-able, and nuclear energy has been studied separately(R. M. Margolis and D. M. Kammen, Energy Policy,inpress).12. Energy products are generally sold at very smallmargins (fractions of a cent per kilowatt-hour) sothat alternate measures, such as the price/earningsratio for energy companies, also warrant study.13. N. Nakicenovic et al., Energy 18, 401 (1993).14. The U.S. Patent and Trademark Office’s “Patent Bib-liographic Database”
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