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UW-Madison SOC 674 - Problem Set

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Sociology 674 Problem set 1 Due 9/9/08 1) The most basic demographic equation is the so-called balancing equation: P2=P1+B-D+IM-OM where P2 is population at time 2, P1 is population at time 1, B is the number of births between time 1 and 2, D is the number of deaths between time 1 and 2, IM is the number of in-migrations between time 1 and 2, OM is the number of out-migrations between time 1 and 2. What are the most likely sources of data for each of the components of this balancing equation? Census for P1 and P2, vital statistics for B and D, and immigration statistics for IM and OM 2) In the demographic transition, mortality decline typically begins before fertility decline. How can we best explain this pattern of change? Key point here is the difference perceptions of mortality and fertility and differences in how change comes about. Living longer is universally desired whereas having fewer children is not – normative and social barriers to fertility decline are strong. Mortality can easily be influenced by exogenous change (e.g., public health measures) whereas fertility is more of a choice – less easily influenced by third parties. 3) A few questions based on the Excel Modules in the text a) Demographic transition module (pp. 19-20). First, click on the “trends since 1950, two countries” tab. Click on the menu tab and choose any one country for both first area and second area. Choose CBR for one variable and CDR for another variable. This will generate a graph of CBR and CDR in one country from 1950 to 2050. Based on this graph, answer questions 1-3 on page 20. Please attach the graph for your selected country with your answers. (You can just cut and paste the graph into a word processor file). Answers will depend on the country you considered b) Using the “historical trends” tab, construct graphs showing the CBR, CDR, and RNI (rate of natural increase) for Norway. Answer questions 4-6 4: The increase in CBR between 1942 and 1946 may be evidence of a baby boom. 5: RNI remains above zero but the stable CDR combined with fluctuating CBR suggests that decline in fertility may result in population decline in the future. 6: The variability reflected “crisis mortality” – famines, epidemics, and wars. The only later peak (in 1918) was presumably due to the influenza epidemic.b) Population dynamics module (pp.22-23). First, after clicking on the “natural increase” tab, let’s simulate a classic western demographic transition. Set the parameters at the following values – Population year 0=1 million, crude birth rate year 0=35, crude birth rate year 50=30, crude birth rate year 100=10, crude death rate year 0=35, crude death rate year 50=20, crude death rate year 100=10, intermediate year=50. Print or save this page to a separate file for your reference. Next, let’s simulate a demographic transition in which the transition occurs more rapidly. Shift the intermediate year from 50 to 15. Print or save this page to a separate file for your reference. Compare the growth in total population in the two scenarios. Interpret the differences you observe. The most important point is that growth is much more rapid when the pace of the transition is more rapid. This reflects larger gap between CDR and CBR during second stage of transition. Fertility has less time to respond to mortality change. c) Next, let’s use the “net migration” button to compare circumstances in low fertility countries with differing levels of net migration (i.e., immigration). Set the parameters at the following values – Population year 0=1 million, crude birth rate year 0=20, crude birth rate year 50=18, crude birth rate year 100=15, crude death rate year 0=15, crude death rate year 50=18, crude death rate year 100=20, net migration rate=0. Print or save this page to a separate file for your reference. Next, increase the net migration rate to 5. Print or save this page to a separate file for your reference. Compare the growth in total population in the two scenarios. Interpret the differences you observe. The key point (and obvious point) here is that in the absence of immigration, the population declines back to its original size. With migration, the population continues to grow. This is a highly stylized example but you should be able to use this to understand differences in patterns of population growth in low fertility, low mortality countries with differing levels of net


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UW-Madison SOC 674 - Problem Set

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