MIT Civil Engineering – 1.011 Project Evaluation Spring Term 2003Wintana Debassay, Patrick HerefordPage 1Eurostar vs. ShinkansenEurostar vs. ShinkansenPatrick Hereford Wintana DebessayVS.Brief OverviewBrief OverviewShinkansenShinkansen––BackgroundBackground––Time LineTime Line––StatisticsStatistics––Costs and BenefitsCosts and Benefits––Risks and UncertaintiesRisks and UncertaintiesEurostarEurostar––BackgroundBackground––Time LineTime Line––StatisticsStatistics––Costs and BenefitsCosts and Benefits––Risks and UncertaintiesRisks and UncertaintiesReferencesReferencesShinkansenShinkansen––http://www.ieee.org/organizatiohttp://www.ieee.org/organizations/history_center/milestones_phns/history_center/milestones_photos/shinkansen.htmlotos/shinkansen.html––http://www.japanesestudies.orghttp://www.japanesestudies.org.uk/discussionpapers/Hood.html.uk/discussionpapers/Hood.html––http://www.jei.org/Archive/JEIRhttp://www.jei.org/Archive/JEIR98/9840w3.html98/9840w3.htmlEurostarEurostar––http://www.http://www.eurostareurostar.com/.com/dctmdctm//jjspsp/index./index.jspjsp––http://www.ohttp://www.o--keatingkeating.com/.com/hsrhsr//eurostareurostar..htmhtm––http://www.bhttp://www.b--rail.be/press/E/rail.be/press/E/nieuwsnieuws/result_/result_eueurostarrostar.html.htmlBackground Background --Shinkansen Shinkansen World’s first interWorld’s first inter--city city highhigh--speed rail systemspeed rail systemAlternate to narrow Alternate to narrow gauge tracks that limit gauge tracks that limit speed speed Considered source of Considered source of national pridenational prideCost overruns from Cost overruns from original estimationoriginal estimationTime LineTime Line19401940––Idea of Idea of ShinkansenShinkansenintroduced and introduced and researched through Governmentresearched through Government19591959––Construction beginsConstruction begins19641964––Inauguration of Tokyo Inauguration of Tokyo ––ShinShin--Osaka Osaka serviceservice––Coincided with Olympics held in JapanCoincided with Olympics held in Japan19721972--19881988––New Shinkansen service lines New Shinkansen service lines sporadically opened throughout Japansporadically opened throughout Japan19871987––Japan National Railways privatizedJapan National Railways privatizedRisks and UncertaintiesRisks and UncertaintiesPostPost--war economy unstablewar economy unstableWas train service the best way to go? Was train service the best way to go? What about highways?What about highways?Topographic obstaclesTopographic obstaclesRidershipRidershipestimationsestimationsStatisticsStatisticsMaximum speed of 300 km/hr, Average Maximum speed of 300 km/hr, Average speed of 286.1 km/hrspeed of 286.1 km/hrNo fatalities on the service due to collision, No fatalities on the service due to collision, derailment, etc. derailment, etc. More than 280 Shinkansen trains operate More than 280 Shinkansen trains operate between Tokyo and Osaka each daybetween Tokyo and Osaka each dayDaily ridership of over 360,000 passengersDaily ridership of over 360,000 passengersMIT Civil Engineering – 1.011 Project Evaluation Spring Term 2003Wintana Debassay, Patrick HerefordPage 2Cost Cost ––Benefit AnalysisBenefit AnalysisHigh construction costs to be compensated High construction costs to be compensated by expected high revenuesby expected high revenuesGovernment project rather than profitGovernment project rather than profit--seeking firmseeking firm––Costs grew Costs grew ÆÆadded lines and employeesadded lines and employeesHUGE Debt HUGE Debt ¥37.1 trillion ($274.8 billion) ¥37.1 trillion ($274.8 billion) ––Privatized to 6 companies to carry some debt Privatized to 6 companies to carry some debt and earn profitand earn profitBackground Background --EurostarEurostarLongest Passenger Train in the World (20 Longest Passenger Train in the World (20 cars long per train)cars long per train)Europe's First International Train to take Europe's First International Train to take advantage of the Channel Tunneladvantage of the Channel TunnelPlagued by unreliability during its first few Plagued by unreliability during its first few years of operationsyears of operationsCan reach speeds up to 186 miles per hour Can reach speeds up to 186 miles per hour but can only travel 100 miles per hour in the but can only travel 100 miles per hour in the ChunnelChunnelTimelineTimeline1994:1994:First Eurostar First Eurostar commercial services commercial services begin from London to begin from London to Paris and BrusselsParis and Brussels1995:1995:Ashford station Ashford station opens a direct service opens a direct service from London to from London to Disneyland ParisDisneyland Paris19961996: Service expands : Service expands to to MoutiersMoutiersand Bourg and Bourg St Maurice from St Maurice from AshfordAshford1998:1998:Opens facilities Opens facilities and renovations at and renovations at Paris Paris GareGareduduNordNordRisks and UncertaintiesRisks and UncertaintiesNatural disasters Natural disasters ocurringocurringnear the near the Channel TunnelChannel TunnelRidershipRidershipduring during Eurostar’sEurostar’sopeningopeningSafety of the EurostarSafety of the EurostarStatisticsStatisticsMaximum speed reached is 186 mphMaximum speed reached is 186 mph7.7 million riders during the 2002 fiscal 7.7 million riders during the 2002 fiscal yearyearWill reach the profit zone at the end of Will reach the profit zone at the end of 2003 if all goes well2003 if all goes wellNo severe injuries during the crash of No severe injuries during the crash of 20002000CostCost--Benefit AnalysisBenefit AnalysisEurostar cost approximately $31 Eurostar cost approximately $31 million for the entire projectmillion for the entire projectCrash in 2000 cost approximately $850 Crash in 2000 cost approximately $850 million million Will obtain a profit after the 2003 Will obtain a profit after the 2003 fiscal yearfiscal