Employment CaliforniaEmployment Oakland MSAEmployment San Francisco MSAEmployment Orange County MSAEmployment Los Angeles MSAEmployment San Jose MSACalifornia MSA Employment Ranked by Percent Change in JobsSlide 8Single Family Housing StartsCalifornia Single Family PermitsExisting Single Family Home SalesExisting Single Family Home Sales CaliforniaHousing AffordabilityCalifornia Housing AffordabilityResidential Mortgage Rates Fixed and AdjustableExisting Median Home Price AppreciationExisting Median Home Price Appreciation CaliforniaWorld Output GrowthOutput Growth North AmericaOutput Growth Western EuropeOutput Growth AsiaOutput Growth South AmericaCommodities Prices Copper, 1996-1998Commodities Prices Oil, 1996-1998World Economic Outlook Risks and OpportunitiesExchange Rates 1995 - 1998Exchange Rates Volatility, 1995 - 1998Country Risk Index Total ScoreCountry Return Index Total ScoreCountry Return Index Total Score, 1998-1999Risk and Return Country Index ComparisonReal Estate CycleCentral London Office Market Supply and DemandLondon - City Submarket Office Vacancy RateLondon - City Submarket Prime Office RentsHong Kong Apartment Prices (“C” Units)Hong Kong Office Market Supply and DemandHong Kong Office Vacancy RateRosen Consulting GroupEmploymentCalifornia9.510.010.511.011.512.012.513.013.580 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98MillionRosen Consulting GroupEmploymentOakland MSA650700750800850900950100080 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98ThousandRosen Consulting GroupEmploymentSan Francisco MSA8508759009259509751000102580 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98ThousandRosen Consulting GroupEmploymentOrange County MSA800900100011001200130080 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98ThousandRosen Consulting GroupEmploymentLos Angeles MSA3.43.53.63.73.83.94.04.14.280 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98MillionRosen Consulting GroupEmploymentSan Jose MSA650700750800850900950100080 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98ThousandRosen Consulting GroupCalifornia MSA EmploymentRanked by Percent Change in JobsRank Metropolitan Area Nov-97 Nov-98 AbsoluteChange PercentChange 1 Riverside 855.3 897.0 41.6 4.9%2 Ventura 245.6 255.1 9.5 3.9%3 Vallejo 153.3 159.1 5.8 3.8%4 Orange County 1249.7 1296.6 46.9 3.8%5 Salinas 119.0 122.8 3.8 3.2%6 Modesto 136.4 140.3 3.9 2.9%7 Santa Rosa 166.4 170.9 4.5 2.7%8 San Diego 1064.8 1092.4 27.6 2.6%9 Oakland 962.3 987.1 24.9 2.6%10 Los Angeles 3907.1 3998.3 91.3 2.3%Rosen Consulting GroupCalifornia MSA EmploymentRanked by Percent Change in JobsRank Metropolitan Area Nov-97 Nov-98 AbsoluteChange PercentChange 11 Stockton 169.4 173.3 4.0 2.3%12 Sacramento 630.6 645.2 14.7 2.3%13 Santa Barbara 152.1 155.6 3.5 2.3%14 San Francisco 996.5 1015.5 19.0 1.9%15 Fresno 278.5 282.9 4.5 1.6%16 San Jose 946.8 956.6 9.8 1.0%17 Bakersfield 181.2 182.4 1.3 0.7%Rosen Consulting GroupSingle Family Housing Starts8131151130911328888921162145114331194852705663106810841072117911461081100389484010301126119210761161113412650200400600800100012001400160070 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98Units (000)Rosen Consulting GroupCalifornia Single Family Permits711131241037690140175143127876051103113114147136162163104747670786974849302040608010012014016018070 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98Units (000)Rosen Consulting GroupExisting Single Family Home Sales16122018225223342272247630643650398638272973241919902719286832143474343635133346321132203520380239463802408742154770010002000300040005000600070 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98Units (000)Rosen Consulting GroupExisting Single Family Home SalesCalifornia266361426405401455559573605587465336234343382405488512562539453425428435483425506555631010020030040050060070070 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98Units (000)Rosen Consulting GroupHousing Affordability35%40%45%50%55%60%84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98% Able to Afford Median-Priced HomeRosen Consulting GroupCalifornia Housing Affordability15%20%25%30%35%40%45%84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98% Able to Afford Median-Priced HomeRosen Consulting GroupResidential Mortgage RatesFixed and Adjustable5%6%7%8%9%10%11%12%13%85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98FRMARMRosen Consulting GroupExisting Median Home Price Appreciation7.78.210.710.37.912.613.514.411.76.82.13.73.04.36.46.64.34.32.65.03.43.02.82.84.75.04.8024681012141672 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98Annual % ChangeRosen Consulting GroupExisting Median Home Price AppreciationCalifornia7.29.210.020.216.928.113.818.718.38.23.82.3-0.14.911.56.318.416.6-1.23.8-1.6-4.6-1.7-3.7-0.65.08.2-10-505101520253072 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98Annual % ChangeRosen Consulting GroupWorld Output Growth0%1%2%3%4%5%6%PessimisticBaseAnnual GrowthRosen Consulting GroupOutput GrowthNorth America0%1%2%3%4%5%6%Annual GrowthRosen Consulting GroupOutput GrowthWestern Europe-0.5%0.0%0.5%1.0%1.5%2.0%2.5%3.0%3.5%Annual GrowthRosen Consulting GroupOutput GrowthAsia-4%-2%0%2%4%6%8%Asia ex. Japan JapanAnnual GrowthRosen Consulting GroupOutput GrowthSouth America-2%-1%0%1%2%3%4%5%6%7%Annual GrowthRosen Consulting GroupCommodities PricesCopper, 1996-19988090100110120130140US$ / TonRosen Consulting GroupCommodities PricesOil, 1996-1998101214161820222426US$ / Barrel Brent CrudeRosen Consulting GroupWorld Economic OutlookRisks and Opportunities•Asian Financial, Economic and Social Crises•Asian Crises’ Effect on Other Regions•Slow Pace of Banking Reform in Japan•The Introduction of European Monetary Union•Threat of Deflation - Worldwide Overcapacity•Threat of Protectionism and Capital ControlsRosen Consulting GroupExchange Rates1995 - 1998-90%-80%-70%-60%-50%-40%-30%-20%-10%0%10%Cumulative Change vs. USDRosen Consulting GroupExchange RatesVolatility, 1995 - 19980%10%20%30%40%50%60%Annualized Standard DeviationRosen Consulting GroupCountry Risk IndexTotal Score9.89.79.29.08.93.43.12.92.41.1024681010=Best, 0=WorstRosen Consulting GroupCountry Return IndexTotal Score8.17.87.77.67.67.67.57.47.47.46.8024681010=Best, 0=WorstRosen Consulting GroupCountry Return IndexTotal Score, 1998-19996.84.84.84.23.83.73.42.62.51.80.0024681010=Best, 0=WorstRosen Consulting GroupRisk and ReturnCountry Index Comparison0123456789100246810Return IndexRisk IndexNetherlandsUnited StatesSwedenItalySpainUnited KingdomSingaporeHong KongPolandChinaArgentinaCzech