“Constructed” preferences1/n heuristic & partition dependence in the lab (cf. “corporate socialism”Context-dependence (comparative)Description-dependent “framing” (descriptions guide attention)Reference-dependenceReference-dependence modellingProspect theory value function: Note kink at zero and diminishing marginal sensitivity (concave for x>0, convex for x<0)Endowment effects (KKT JPE ’90)KKT “mugs” experiment (JPE ‘90)Plott-Zeiler reviewData from young (PCC) and old (80 yr olds) using PZ instructions (Kovalchik et al JEBO in press 04)“Status quo bias” and defaults in organ donation (Johnson-Goldstein Sci 03)Loss-aversion in savings decisions (note few points with actual utility <0) from Chua & Camerer 03Disposition effects in housing (Genesove and Mayer, 2001)Boston condo slump in nominal pricesG-M econometric modelResults: m is significant, smaller for investors (not owner-occupants; less “attachment”?)Cab driver “income targeting” (QJE 97)Cab driver instrumental variables (IV) showing experience effectAnchored valuation: Valuations for listening to poetry framed as labor (top) or leisure (bottom) (Ariely, Loewenstein, Prelec QJE 03 and working paperhttp://sds.hss.cmu.edu/faculty/Loewenstein/downloads/Sawyersubmitted.pdf“Arbitrary” valuationsWhat econ. would happen if valuations are arbitrary?Is too much choice bad?Choice-aversionExperimental markets & prob judgmentIIlusions of transparency““Constructed” preferencesConstructed” preferencesStudy effects relative to “complete, transitive” u(x)Study effects relative to “complete, transitive” u(x)““Constructed” means expression of preference is like Constructed” means expression of preference is like problem-solving: problem-solving: Will you vote for John Kerry? Will you vote for John Kerry? Answered by rapid intuition (tall, good hair) and deliberate Answered by rapid intuition (tall, good hair) and deliberate logic (positions on issues)logic (positions on issues)Context-dependence (comparative)Context-dependence (comparative)Description-dependent “framingDescription-dependent “framing (descriptions guide attention) (descriptions guide attention)Reference-dependence (changes, not levels; anchoring)Reference-dependence (changes, not levels; anchoring)Some values “protected”/sacred (health, environment)Some values “protected”/sacred (health, environment)Is too much choice bad?Is too much choice bad?Open questions:Open questions:Are effects smaller with familiar choices? Are effects smaller with familiar choices? Experts? Experts? Markets?Markets?New predictions (e.g. “big tip” labor supply experiment)New predictions (e.g. “big tip” labor supply experiment)1/n heuristic & partition dependence in the lab (cf. 1/n heuristic & partition dependence in the lab (cf. “corporate socialism”“corporate socialism”Context-dependence (comparative)Context-dependence (comparative)Objects judged relative to others in a Objects judged relative to others in a choice setchoice setAsymmetric dominanceAsymmetric dominanceCompromise effectsCompromise effectsEconomic question: What is seller’s Economic question: What is seller’s optimal choice set given context-optimal choice set given context-dependent preferences? dependent preferences?Description-dependent “framing” (descriptions Description-dependent “framing” (descriptions guide attention)guide attention)Analogy to figure-ground in perceptionAnalogy to figure-ground in perceptionActual study with n=792 docs (Harvard Med, Brigham Actual study with n=792 docs (Harvard Med, Brigham &Women’s, Hebrew U; McNeil et al JAMA ’80s)&Women’s, Hebrew U; McNeil et al JAMA ’80s)treatment 1 yr 5 yrstreatment 1 yr 5 yrschoicechoiceSurgery 10% 32% 66%Surgery 10% 32% 66%53%53%Radiation 0% 23% 78% Radiation 0% 23% 78% 47%47%treatment 1 yr 5 yrstreatment 1 yr 5 yrschoicechoice both frames both framesSurgery 90% 68% 34%Surgery 90% 68% 34% 82% 82% 60% 60%Radiation 100% 77% 22% Radiation 100% 77% 22% 18% 40% 18% 40%Asian disease problemAsian disease problemPro-choice vs pro-lifePro-choice vs pro-lifeEconomic idea: Competitive framing; which frame “wins”? Economic idea: Competitive framing; which frame “wins”? Politics: “spin” (Lakoff)Politics: “spin” (Lakoff)e.g. aren’t we better off w/ Hussein gone? e.g. aren’t we better off w/ Hussein gone? Liberation vs. occupationLiberation vs. occupationReference-dependenceReference-dependenceSensations depend on reference points rSensations depend on reference points rE.g. put two hands in separate hot and cold E.g. put two hands in separate hot and cold water, then in one large warm bathwater, then in one large warm bathHot hand feels colder and the cold hand feels hotter Hot hand feels colder and the cold hand feels hotter Loss-aversion Loss-aversion ≡ v’(x)|≡ v’(x)|++ < v’(x) | < v’(x) |- - a “kink” at 0; “first-order risk-aversion” aka a “kink” at 0; “first-order risk-aversion” aka focussing illusion?focussing illusion?Requires theory of “mental accounting”Requires theory of “mental accounting”What gains/losses are grouped together?What gains/losses are grouped together?When are mental accounts closed/opened?When are mental accounts closed/opened?Conjecture: time and space matter, and cognitive Conjecture: time and space matter, and cognitive boundariesboundariesExample: Last-race-of-the-day effect (bets switch to Example: Last-race-of-the-day effect (bets switch to longshots to “break even”, McGlothlin 1956)longshots to “break even”, McGlothlin 1956)Reference-dependence modellingReference-dependence modellingWhere does r come from?Where does r come from?Experiments: Usually status quo or pre-Experiments: Usually status quo or pre-experiment conditionexperiment conditionKoszegi-Rabin ’03: Reference point is based on Koszegi-Rabin ’03: Reference point is based on (lagged) expectations(lagged) expectationsSolves problem of why r is not chosen to be Solves problem of why r is not chosen to be superlowsuperlowConcept of “personal equilibrium” in
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