General adviceIB 153 Synthesis Paper Assignment Due Dec. 7, 2006 Perform a thought experiment, choosing option (I), (II), (III), or (IV) describe below. Write a 5-8 p. paper (single-spaced, 12pt. font, 1” margins, not counting reference list or figures or tables) synthesizing your ecological knowledge and library research findings with your own logical deductions. Use the complete citation style of the journal Ecology and note that points will be deducted for incompletely cited references, as well as spelling and grammatical errors. Read and cite at least 5 papers from the primary literature that report original research data and several review articles (Use Biosis or Web of Science to find relevant papers). General advice Avoid writing in a creative ('fictional') or chatty, popular style. We want the tone to be that of an objective scientific journal, rather than emotive, as in a popular magazine. We strongly suggest you read a number of articles in journals like Ecology, Oikos, or Oecologia to familiarize yourself with this concise scientific writing style. Being concise and objective does not preclude the use of effective language (e.g., strong verbs, active voice where appropriate). For citations, use the journal Ecology's format. Do not use footnotes and long quotes. Find and read published articles to back up and evaluate information you find on the web. Consult with faculty and GSIs as you choose topics, focus and plan your paper. I. Ecological Forecasting a. Consequences of deleting a taxon. Imagine that a species (e.g. California Condor) or ,larger taxon (e.g.termites), or a guild (e.g. anaerobic bacteria or nitrogen-fixing terrestrial plants) is deleted from Earth. Predict the ecological consequences of this deletion 1 month, 1 year, 5 years, 50 years, and 100 years from the extinction event, assuming that other physical and biological factors remained relatively constant except for their response to this extinction. In particular, focus on the community and ecosystem level consequences, such as disturbance and succession, trophic dynamics, demographic consequences of life histories, biogeochemical fluxes, spatial dynamics of populations and species assemblages. You should choose an appropriate spatial scope of your forecast. For example, if your species or guild has a limited biological range, immediate consequences might be local (the alpine region of the Canadian Rockies; Caribbean reefs; the Tasmanian rain forest). Over time, however, the deletion might have indirect consequences at larger, possibly global, scales. Combine a knowledge of the natural history of the species or group and its environment with predictions about impacts on ecological processes to make your predictions. Feel free to comment about gaps in our knowledge that limit our abilities to make such forecasts. ORb. Consequences of environmental change. Imagine a slight change in the mean or range of variation in a physical-chemical factor, like spatial or temporal rainfall distribution, temperature, pH, or CO2. Predict how these regime changes would affect a population, , species interaction, and/or an ecosystem after 1 month, 1 year, 5 years, 10 years, 50 years. It might be particularly interesting to look up predicted climate change effects for local regions (e.g., for California, snow pack storage in the Sierra Nevada, temperature regimes coupled with tidal amplitudes along the coast, precipitation changes predicted for the California North Coast.). Feel free to consider other areas, such as glaciers melting in Indonesia, or sea level rise along Scandinavian fjords. Useful leads on climate change predictions can be found on the web: http://earthguide.ucsd.edu/globalchange/global_warming/08.htmlhttp://geography.uoregon.edu/envchange/clim_animations/ II. Limiting Factors Choose a species of interest, and discuss the factors and interactions that seem likely to limit its distribution and abundance (either globally, or in a geographical region of interest for a local population that you delimit by some reasonable criterion). What biological and ecological factors influence the probability that the population could persist for, say, 500 years? Describe how the species’ needs and opportunities change through its life history (i.e. the different life stages) and how seasonal variation in environmental conditions may be limiting bottlenecks for growth, survival, or reproduction. What are the individual and population home ranges needed to ensure access to critical habitats, resources, and refuges? What determines the minimum viable population size needed for the species to persist? Discuss 2-4 contingencies relevant to the ecology of the focal species that might alter the factors that limit it. These contingencies might involve different fire or drought scenarios, the evolution of pesticide or antibiotic resistance, or the introduction of an exotic invader that affects the focal species. Also discuss how these different contingencies may have independent or interactive effects on the distribution and abundance of your species. III. Compounded Perturbations Natural communities have dealt with major, sometimes catastrophic perturbations throughout their history on the planet. Today's human-dominated disturbance regimes may differ, however, because of the increased frequency at which multiple changes coincide with synergistic effects. Discuss scenarios of compounded perturbations that could yield ecological surprises, and give a reasoned argument for why or why not you might expect the altered states to persist far into the future. For insight into this phenomenon, read the case histories reviewed for kelp beds, San Francisco Bay, coral reefs, and boreal forests in this paper: Paine, R. T., M. J. Tegner, and E. A. Johnson. 1998. Compounded perturbations yield ecological surprises. Ecosystems 1:535-545.Remember to choose a different ecosystem for your synthesis paper., IV. Regime Shifts Along Spatial Gradients Take an explicitly spatial approach by hypothesizing where, along elevational, depth or latitudinal gradients, species interactions that impact ecological communities shift. Then, postulate how these boundaries might change (e.g. move up or down from current positions along gradients) under altered external forcing by land use practices, climate change, or biotic change, such asextinction, invasion, or trait evolution. V.