The “Developing” World? Urban Passenger Mobility Chris Zegras 2 December 2008 1.201 Objective and Content  Provide a brief, somewhat anecdotal, “survey” of developing country urban mobility reality 1. Trends and Forces 2. A Developing World? 3. Developing Country Challenges and Opportunities: 5 Key Areas – Motorization, motorized 2-wheelers, public transportation, land management, institutions 2 1“Developing” World Urban Transportation: Trends in Perspective By 2030 ~2 billion new residents X ~3,000 vkm/person/year = ~6 trillion additional vehicle kms/yr = ~600 billion additional liters of gasoline/yr or ~1.9 billion tonnes of GHG yearly 3 Some Relevant Forces • Income growth… • Accessibility is a “superior good” • Urban decentralization (i.e., suburbanization) • Increasing labor force participation • Declining household size 4 2In other words… Urbanization (Urban population growth) + Decentralization (Urban outgrowth, “sprawl”) + Income Growth = More people making more trips over greater distances 5 What do we mean by “developing” world? • Can (should) we generalize? • What is different? • What is the same? • Sources of variation? 6 378Range of “Developing World” Cities Source: Various, see WBCSD, Table A-1. Household Car Ownership Hyodo et al, 2005. 410Non-motorized transport “cultures”? 6 10 12 24 24 24 22 28 29 21 18 274 4 4 10 12 9 10 20 28 2 1 1.4 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 US Canada England France Italy Switzerland Germany Austria Sweden Denmark Holland Santiago Percent of AllTrips Bike Walk Pucher & Dijkstra, 2003; Santiago derived from SECTRA, 2002. 9 Chilean Cities: Vehicle Ownership & Mode Shares 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% Curico Copiapo Punta Arenas Valdivia PuertoMonttTalca ChillanArica Iquique Temuco Rancagua Antofagasta Coquimbo-La Serena Concepcion Valparaiso-Vina del Mar Santiago (1991) Santiago (2001) Other Metro/Train Bike Colectivo Bus Auto Walk % Households With No Motor Vehicle 511Edad en AñosPorcentaje de ViajesBicicletaCaminata7 5 4 6 17 23 39 48 12 13 14 19 24 47 28 27 29 44 10 9 11 7 30 19 22 25 24 1.2 2.2 2.8 2.3 1.7 1 0.5 0.3 0.2 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 16-2425-3940-64>6518-4445-6465-74>7518-2425-3940-6465-74>75<1516-2425-3940-6465+ Bike Walk Percent of All Trips Age in Years USA Germany Netherlands Santiago Non-Motorized Urban Trips by Age Category Pucher & Dijkstra, 2003; Santiago derived from SECTRA, 2002. 12 Gender • Again, significant variation by culture… • Generally, women have less access to private vehicles (all else equal) • Women’s travel habits – more often than men’s related to household maintenance – not conducive to convenient public transport itineraries. – Further suffer possible dangers on public transport. • In developing countries, female trip generation rate tends to be higher than males in most cities – Exceptions in places like Cairo and Kuala Lumpur – Likely religious and cultural influence (e.g. Hyodo et al, 2005). 6A few accurate generalizations Poverty • By definition, developing world is poorer – Accessibility poor – Time poor – Safety poor – Energy poor • Distribution of income: tends to be worse – Gini coefficients • Interacting effects: poor on periphery, isolated, poor transport, long trips 13 Accurate generalizations Dynamism • E.g., land market changes in China and Vietnam • Political and institutional decentralization • Rates of population growth • Demographic – Women in work force participation Densities 14 7Can we “buy (and/or learn) away” some of the effects? • Kuznets curve • But, will this come in time? • E.g.: traffic accident rates in India will not start declining until 2042…(Kopitz and Cropper, 2003) • Paths of development will depend, in part, on time, speed, sequence of technological adaptation • Impacts and implications will vary across contexts 15 Developing country challenges and opportunities: Five key areas • Motorization – does a foreseeable ceiling exist? • Motorized two-wheelers – friend or foe? • Public transportation – what future? • Land development – any possibility for management for mobility? • Institutions – capable of responding? 16 8Motorization In theory, a saturation point exists… ALL of developing world is well-below saturation The “vicious cycle…” 18 Motorization (cars/capita) Income Elasticity Dargay, J. and D. Gately (1999); Income’s effect on car and vehicle ownership, worldwide: 1960-2015; Transportation Research A, Vol. 33, No. 2. 9Motorization: Influencing Factors • Income distribution • Local industry and trade policy – Brazil, Malaysia,China – Trade liberalization and used vehicles • Peru, Senegal – Local tax policies: Shanghai until recently • Other policies, with potentially perverse effects – “Hoy no circula” • Will any country take a Singaporean approach to long-term management of S-curve? 19 Motorization and Motorized Two-Wheelers The “ladder of mobility”? Where does the 2-wheeler culture come from? 1021 Motorization and 2-wheelers 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 500 0 2000 4000 6000 8000 10000 GDP per Capita (US$) Vehicles per 1000 Autos Autos + 2-wheelers Chennai Mumbai Dakar Wuhan Shanghai Belo Horizonte Mexico City Kuala Lumpur 22 Chennai, 1993 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 <20 20 41 62 83 104 125 146 167 188 209 >209 Monthly Income (US$) Percent of Households Cars Two Wheelers Rites, 1995. 112-wheelers • The “worst of both worlds”? (Barter, 2004)? – Traffic saturation and undercutting public transport • High levels of air and noise pollution • Dangerous driving habits • Difficult traffic management conditions • Likely the “most challenging” transport problem that Asia will face in the next decade (Gwilliam, 2003) 23 Public Transportation Developing cities mobility backbone 12Public Transportation Ubiquitous service Entrepreneurial spirit Large potential demand… Severe financial conditions Inadequate capacity Little network integration Slow speeds Deteriorating capital 25 Public Transportation: Obstacles • Poverty – Allport and Thomson (1990): with 1 dollar fare, Metros in LDCs “break even” (operationally) • “Guerra del centavo” • Potentially “counter-productive” competition 26 13Public Transportation: Competition • Car rapides (Dakar) • Matutus