METHODS FOR THE ANALYSIS OF CHANGE Revised Syllibus G89 2247 Advanced Seminar in Analysis of Change Spring 2001 New York University Time and Place Wednesdays 12 30PM 2 20PM Room 469 6 Washington Place Optional lab Thursdays 11 30 12 30PM Room 854 Instructors Patrick Shrout Room 550 Psychology 998 7895 Niall Bolger Room 752 Psychology 998 3890 Course Objectives This course will review current issues and methods involving the analysis of change in the behavioral and social sciences Starting from classical methods for the analysis of change change scores mixed model ANOVA regression and MANOVA we examine the rationale and utility of newer methods GEE Methods Latent change approaches Hierarchical linear random regression models and survival analysis The methods will be introduced conceptually and will be illustrated using real data Course Requirements Students will read contemporary articles on the statistical analysis of change They will complete seven structured data analysis assignments and submit brief written reports of results Using a problem and a data set of their own choosing students will design and carry out an analysis of change and report their findings to the class in a seminar format These findings will also be written as a methods and results section of a formal scientific paper Week Topic Reading 1 17 01 Change data difference scores Gottman Rushe Rogosa BMAC Ch 6 1 24 01 ANOVA MANOVA approaches DLZ Ch 1 6 1 31 01 Time series models Time series handout 2 7 01 Panel models and regressed change BMAC Ch 2 15 2 14 01 Random regression approaches SB Ch 1 3 2 21 01 Random intercepts and slopes SB Ch 4 5 2 28 01 Multilevel analysis III SB Ch 6 12 3 7 01 Analysis of Discrete Outcomes 3 14 01 SB Ch 14 Spring Break 3 21 01 Panel models via SEM 3 28 01 Latent Growth Models 4 4 01 Analysis of Discrete Outcomes II 4 11 01 Survival analysis Willet Sayer 1994 DLZ pp 131 153 BMAC Ch 18 4 18 01 Revisiting longitudinal analysis 4 25 01 Student presentations 5 3 01 Student presentations Texts Collins L M Horn J L Ed 1991 Best methods for the analysis of change Washington D C American Psychological Association BMAC Diggle P J Liang K Y Zeger S L 1994 Analysis of longitudinal data Oxford Oxford University Press DLZ 1 Snijders T Bosker R 1999 Multilevel Analysis London Sage SB Other Readings Gottman J M 1981 Time series analysis a comprehensive introduction for social scientists New York Cambridge University Press Gottman J M Rushe R H 1993 The analysis of change issues fallacies and new ideas Journal of Consulting and Clinical Psychology 61 907 910 Hosmer D W Lemeshow S 1999 Applied Survival Analysis New York Wiley Raudenbush S W 2001 Comparing personal trajectories and drawing causal inferences from longitudinal data Annual Review of Psychology 52 501 526 Rogosa D 1988 Myths about longitudinal research In K W Schaie R T Campbell W Meredith S C Rawlings Eds Methodological issues in aging research pp 171 210 New York Springer Singer J D Willett J B 1991 Modeling the days of our lives Using survival analyses when designing and analyzing longitudinal studies of duration and the timing of events Psychological Bulletin 110 268 290 Willett J B Sayer A G 1994 Using covariance structure analysis to detect correlates and predictors of individual change over time Psychological Bulletin 116 363 381 Extended Reference List 1 Anderson E R 1993 Analyzing change in short term longitudinal research using cohortsequential designs Journal of Consulting and Clinical Psychology 61 929 940 2 Baltes P B Reese H W Nesselroade J R 1988 Life span developmental psychology Introduction to research methods Hillsdale NJ Erlbaum 3 Box E P Jenkins G M 1972 Time series analysis Forecasting and control San Francisco Holden Day 4 Bryk A S Raudenbush S W 1987 Application of hierarchical linear models to assessing change Psychological Bulletin 101 147 158 5 Bryk A S Raudenbush S W 1992 Hierarchical linear models applications and data analysis methods Newbury Park CA Sage 6 Burr J A Nesselroade J R 1990 Change measurement In A von Eye Ed Statistical methods in longitudinal research pp 3 34 San Diego Academic Press 7 Campbell D T Erlebacher A 1970 How regression artifacts in quasi experimental evaluation can mistakenly make compensatory education look harmful In J Hellmuth Ed Compensatory Education A National Debate New York Brunner Mazel 8 Catalano R Serxner S 1987 Time series designs of potential interest to epidemiologists American Journal of Epidemiology 126 724 731 9 Chan d 1998 The conceptualization and analysis of change over time An integrative approach incorporating longitudinal mean and covariance structures analysis and multiple indicator latent growth modeling Organizational Research Methods 1 421 483 10 Cronbach L J Furby L 1970 How should we measure change or should we Psychological Bulletin 74 68 80 2 11 Crosbie J 1993 Interrupted time series analysis with brief single subject data Journal of Consulting and Clinical Psychology 61 966 974 12 Curran P J 1998 A latent curve framework for studying developmental trajectories of adolescent substance abuse In J Rose L Chassin C Presson J Sherman Eds Multivariate applications in substance use research Hillsdale NJ Erlbaum 13 Diem J E Liukkonen J R 1988 A comparative study of three methods for analysing longitudinal pulmonary function data Statistics in Medicine 7 19 28 14 Ekstrom D Quade D Golden R N 1990 Statistical analysis of repeated measures in psychiatric research Archives of General Psychiatry 47 770 772 15 Fleiss J L 1986 Design and analysis of clinical experiments New York Wiley 16 Games P A 1990 Alternative analyses of repeated measure designs by ANOVA and MANOVA In A von Eye Ed Statistical methods in longitudinal research pp 81 122 San Diego Academic Press 17 Gardner W 1993 Hierarchical continuous time sequential analysis A strategy for clinical research Journal of Consulting and Clinical Psychology 61 975 983 18 Gibbons R D Hedeker D 1994 Application of random effects probit regression models Journal of Consulting and Clinical Psychology 62 285 296 19 Gollub H F Reichardt C S 1987 Taking account of time lags in causal models Child Development 58 80 92 20 Gottman J M 1981 Time series analysis a comprehensive introduction for social scientists New York Cambridge University Press 21 Hand D J Crowder M J 1996 Practical longitudinal analyses New York Chapman and Hall 22 Hand D J Taylor C C 1987 Multivariate analysis of variance and repeated measures A