Policy Development andImplementation to MitigateEffects of ENSO-RelatedClimate VariabilityJames HansenInternational Research Institute for Climate PredictionPWhat do you know about El Niño and LaNiña?PFrom a policy perspective, how would youview El Niño / La Niña?< a hazard?< a basis for prediction?< an opportunity?Big PicturePENSO a contributor to climate variabilityPENSO a basis for predictabilityPPredictability associated with ENSO createsan opportunity to tailor decisions to expectedconditions to either mitigate adverseconditions or take advantage of favorableconditions. Big PictureWhat conditions must be in place in order forsociety to benefit?Big PictureWhat conditions must be in place in order forsociety to benefit?Benefit arises when prediction of climatefluctuations leads to decisions that reducevulnerability to impacts of climate variabilityBig PictureBig PicturePrerequisites to Beneficial UsehumanvulnerabilitybenefitpotentialclimatepredictabilitydecisioncapacityPVulnerability and motivationBig PicturePrerequisites to Beneficial UseForecast information is useful only when it addressesneed that is real and perceived. Decision makersmust be aware of climate risk and its impacts, andmotivated to use forecasts to manage that risk.PVulnerability and motivationPDecision capacityBig PicturePrerequisites to Beneficial UseBenefits are conditioned on existence and under-standing of decision options that are sensitive toincremental information in forecasts, and compatiblewith goals and constraints.PVulnerability and motivationPDecision capacityPPredictability of climateBig PicturePrerequisites to Beneficial UseRelevant components of climate variability must bepredictable in relevant periods, at an appropriatescale, with sufficient skill and lead time for decisions.PVulnerability and motivationPDecision capacityPPredictability of climatePCommunicationBig PicturePrerequisites to Beneficial UseUse of climate forecasts requires that the rightaudience receives, understands, and correctlyinterprets the right information at the right time, in aform that can be applied to the decision problem(s).PVulnerability and motivationPDecision capacityPPredictability of climatePCommunicationPInstitutions and policyBig PicturePrerequisites to Beneficial UseSustained operational use of forecasts requiresinstitutional commitment institutions to provideforecast information and other support, and policiesthat support provision and use of climate forecasts.PSocietally-important impacts of ENSO?PDoes El Niño imply adverse impacts?PAre impacts of El Niño & La Niña opposite?PWould you expect impacts of the next ElNiño to be the same as the last El Niño?PMagnitude, timing, spatial patterns, chaoticatmosphere affect local climatic responses.PWhat factors affect societal impacts?Understanding Impacts:The Attribution ProblemPProbabilistic thinkingPAppropriate use of time-series dataPStatistical hypothesis testingPBe open to surpriseUnderstanding Impacts:The Attribution ProblemForecasts have no intrinsic value.Decisions:Managing Climatic ImpactsForecasts have no intrinsic value.Improved outcomes associated with improveddecisions do.Decisions:Managing Climatic ImpactsPAgriculturePFood insecurity early warning and responsePWater resource managementPEnergyPPublic healthPHydrometeorological disaster managementPEtc.Decisions:Managing Climatic ImpactsRange of SectorsPExample, agriculture:< Field-scale crop management< Farm-scale resource allocation< Community decisions, e.g., Florida potato farmers< Watershed-scale irrigation distribution< Sub-national scale food stock management< National requests for international food aidPIndividual response vs. public policyDecisions:Managing Climatic ImpactsRange of ScalesPWhat is more valuable, a skillful forecast ofadverse or favorable climatic conditions?PTwo perspectives of applications:< Hazard; crisis response< Development; managing variability< Both address “risk management”Hazard vs. DevelopmentPENSO can improve hazard management< Refine probability of particular hazards< Improve lead time. E.g., food insecurity EWS< Advance mobilization of disaster responseresources< Inform at-risk populationsPDecisions tend to involve discrete thresholdsand actionsPValue comes from anticipating adverseconditionsHazard vs. DevelopmentThe Hazard PerspectivePPotential for short-sightedness and inactionbetween infrequent events.< Crises favor inertia and political will to plan andprepare – after the crisis.< Time and change of leadership favor neglect orabandonment of preparations.PCareful, committed planning and capacitybuilding needed to counteract this tendency.Hazard vs. DevelopmentThe Hazard PerspectivePClimate variability opposes development< Direct effects of adverse climatic events< Indirect effect of climatic uncertaintyPDecisions sensitive to range of variabilityPExample, under-investment in soil fertility inSub-Saharan AfricaHazard vs. DevelopmentThe Development PerspectivePEffects of distorting forecast uncertaintyPRisk aversion and subjective forecast valuePDangers of both under-responding and over-responding to El Niño or La NiñaPInstitutional dissemination channelsPPerceived accountability of issuing agencyPEnsuring equitable access to informationThe Communication ChallengePPolicy drives institutions.< Institutional mandate derives from policy.< Institutional effectiveness depends on allocationof public resources to the institutions and, moregenerally, to research and education.PPolicy constrains or enhances flexibility,therefore resilience, of decision makers.PPolicy influences overall economy.PPolicy influences risk.Where Does Public Policy Enter?PCrisis responseWhere Does Public Policy Enter?Institutional MechanismsCrises tend to affect diverse populations and sectors,crossing traditional institutional mandates. Crisisresponse often calls for coordination or consolodationamong diverse institutions.PCrisis responsePDisaster preparednessWhere Does Public Policy Enter?Institutional MechanismsAdvanced preparation improves effectiveness andreduces cost of response, but requires ongoingpolitical will, and solid probabilistic understanding ofpotential impacts.PCrisis responsePDisaster preparednessPInstitutional support for predictionWhere Does Public Policy Enter?Institutional MechanismsPrimarily national meteorological services. Due to costof ocean monitoring and dynamic prediction capacity,international institutions play a role. Met servicesmust support