Speculative thoughts on future network architectures


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Speculative thoughts on future and past network architectures Andrew Odlyzko Digital Technology Center University of Minnesota http www dtc umn edu odlyzko University of Minnesota Outline The hard to predict non techie user is king Inertia more important than technology and economics Precise prediction impossible Flexibility the main source of Internet s success key for even if you find the optimal solution you won t convince decision makers in time University of Minnesota Frequent misplaced bets on technologies Number of papers per year with ATM or Ethernet in the abstract data from IEEE Xplore 2004 estimated values for 2004 Kalevi Kilkki Sensible design principles for new networks and services First Monday Jan 2005 http www firstmonday org issues issue10 1 kilkki University of Minnesota Technologies often succeed in spite of their promoters misconceptions Internet Railroads freight vs passengers short vs long haul effect on demand for horses University of Minnesota Network technologies and architectures Irrelevant to users Cannot compensate completely for weaknesses of applications University of Minnesota University of Minnesota Technology Many choices Drive for uniformity converged network Drive for diversity walled gardens security redundancy customer owned networks outsourcing Likely outcome a multimodal telecom scene unified by IP layer in analogy with transportation sector unified by container University of Minnesota Primacy of user needs and user inertia Yellow pages example Qwest sale of directory division in 2002 for approx 7 billion annual revenues 1 6 billion margins 63 Current October 2005 market cap of Qwest approx 7 billion user inertia often most important factor in business success University of Minnesota Inertia Standards that are still diffusing rapidly e g IP hard to undermine Comparison to standard gauge on railroads Conclusion You can tweak it but it will be called IP and will be very much like IP however poor IP is University of Minnesota Hard

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