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GT ECE 6390 - LECTURE NOTES

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Sustainable Energy for manySustainable Energy for many TomorrowsECE 6390Sept 15 2011Sept. 15, 2011 Georgia Institute of TechnologyAtlanta, GADarel PrebleSpace Solar Power Institute Space Solar Power Workshopwww.solarsat.org www.sspi.gatech.eduOverextended on debt, people are squeezed by rising costs and declining real wagesrising costs and declining real wages.“Financial Forecast for 2009”by Gail Tverberg2Financial Forecast for 2009 by Gail Tverberg• The shocking oil prices of July 2008 were caused by strong demand confronting stagnating world oil production.[1] (We need energy and commodities to create economic value (exergy). Global oil production has been flat since 2005, although prices p,gphave soared.• The prices of all important commodities except oil declined for 100 years until 2002 by an average of 70% From 2002 until100 years until 2002, by an average of 70%. From 2002 until now, this entire decline was erased by a bigger price surge than occurred during World War II.Mdii ffhif•Most commodities are now so far away from their former downward trend that that that old trend has very probably finally changed –a Paradigm Shift –the most important economic ggpevent since the Industrial Revolution.[2]3Commodity and energy prices will restrict the global & US economies: 4Global Food Supplypp yUSDA forecasts near record corn harvest levels, but surging global demand portends supplies going to a 16-year low next year. USDA’s August crop report forecasts dramatically less grain and soybeans than expected this year. Damaging heat and dryness took a toll on corn and soybean fields whileand dryness took a toll on corn and soybean fields, while excessive rains hampered spring wheat plantings. These portend continued high prices for bread, meat, milk, eggs and th t l C t ti d ti ht f dother staples. Consumers can expect continued tight food supplies and historically high prices during the year ahead. 5Global Food PricesWorld food prices are near a record as growing demand from China and India outpaces harvests hurt by flood and drought. Rising prices have put 44 million people into poverty in the past year, helping fuel conflict and unrest in the Middle East and North Africa and spurred central banks from Brasilia toand North Africa and spurred central banks from Brasilia to Beijing to increase interest rates. 6Peak OilPeak OilCharlie Maxwell“dean of world oil analysts”Charlie Maxwell, dean of world oil analysts foresees a “peak” in conventional oil production in 2012 or 2013. He sees a peak in the production of all li idi l di d d il dliquids -including condensates, tar sands oil and biodiesel in 2015.Private UK studies, such as "The Oil Crunch" report also projects a global oil peak production around 2012 or 20132012 or 2013. 7Booming U.S. coal exports surging to 100 million tons/yr thanks to AsiaWhile the U.S. is slated to close 35 gigawatts of coal-fired power plants next decade, 249 gigawatts of coal-fired power pp ,ggpplants are under construction worldwide. http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/05/12/businesspro-us-coal-usa-ppidUSTRE74B2FH201105128Peaking Fossil Fuels IEA World Energy Outlook projects the global petroleumIEA World Energy Outlook projects the global petroleum decline rate at 6.7% ! http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2008/dec/15/oil-peak-energy-iea 9Conservation …ibtt hnice, but not enough• Carpooling• New LED and compact fluorescent lightingEffiili•Energy efficient appliances• Cooking with Microwave ovens, inductive heating, etc., over conventional ovens• Adding insulation to walls and ceiling, Double glaze windows; Bermed houses•Decoupled energy rate structuresDecoupled energy rate structures • Jevon’s paradox10Job OneJob OneElectrify our transportation systemElectrify our transportation systemHybrid/Plug-in Electric cars & trucksygLight rail & subwaysElectric trains - with Super batteries –e.g. Cui’s nanowire batterySuper capacitors – e.g. EEstor1112Ai’ itdlbli t tAmerica’s energy security and global environment are at risk.The U.S. is doing NOTHING on the massive energy scale required.13Most states, led by California’s aggressive and failing Renewable Portfolio Standard (RPS), have legislated a renewable energy transformation. California’s RPS was initiated in 2002.Their goal is 20% RPS by 2010…initiated in 2002. Their goal is 20% RPS by 2010… and 33% by 2020. Developing countries would crush these gains that Gov. Schwarzenegger has ordered and the utilities cannot delivercannot deliver.20.016.018.0RPS %-10.012.014.0RPS %142003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008Since 2006 California PUC has mandated “feed-in tariffs” intended to encourage renewable power. Toby Couture, E3 Analytics found that only 14 MW have been installed inAnalytics, found that only 14 MW have been installed in the 500 MW program. California’s peak power is about 63,000 MW. Feed-in tariffs are the latest fashion to encourage Renewable Power Standards. 1516• IF CAES were truly a cost effective method for time shifting energy generation it would have beenshifting energy generation, it would have been widely adopted in the US. •It has not been There is still just one CAES plant in•It has not been. There is still just one CAES plant in the US. •True utility bulk power storage is not plannedTrue utility bulk power storage is not planned anywhere – peak shaving frequency regulation, etc., but not bulk power storage.pg1733% RPS by 2020 ?yHow? CAES (Compressed Air Energy Storage) A natural gas plant“in disguise”burning natural gas with theplant in disguise, burning natural gas with the decompressed air stream. 1 MW CAES Plant1 MW Fossil Plant1 MW CAES Plant1 MW Fossil Plant8,200,000 BTU (2403 kWh) plus10,000,000 BTU (2403 kWh) plus4,600,000 BTU (natural gas) 12,800,000 BTU 10,000,000 BTU27% Efficient34% Efficient1827% Efficient34% EfficientBut what are our power alternatives?Clean? Safe?Reliable? Baseload?FilFlNYIitPkYFossil Fuel No Yes Imminent Peaks Yes Nuclear No Yes Cost, Water, Proliferation Yes Wind PowerYesYesNo intermittent;NoWind Power Yes Yes No, intermittent;8.7% Cap. Factor*No Geothermal Yes Yes No, Limited availability YesGround Solar Yes Yes No, intermittent No Hydro Yes Yes No; drought; complex scheduling BiofuelsYesYesVery limited quantities & competesBio-fuels Yes Yes Very limited quantities & competes with food production. Poor EROEISSP Yes Yes Yes Yes19Can roof top solar (or


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