Climate Change and Energy PolicyOutline of these remarksThe role of energy in the climate-change problemSource: EIA Internat’l Energy Outlook 2003Reducing CO2 emissions from the fossil-fuel system by changing technologies is difficult because…The role of climate change in the energy problemThe challenges for energy policy are many:Why is this difficult?The two hardest piecesSo…What are the options for reducing the impacts of climate change?Can other approaches avoid the need to reduce CO2 emissions? Options for reducing CO2 emissionsApproaches for reducing energy intensity and carbon intensity POSSIBLE POLICY MEASURESHow big is the challenge our portfolio of measures must meet?The question of targets Suitable CO2 target? (continued)Thought experiment: How much carbon-free energy is needed to stabilize CO2 at 550 ppmv?Key conclusionU.S. national energy-climate policy to dateBush-Cheney and Clinton-Gore energy-climate policies differ considerably in rhetoricThe growing pressures for changePressure is coming from…Sense of the Senate Resolution on climate change (6-21-05)Climate Change and Energy PolicyJohn P. HoldrenHeinz Professor of Environmental Policy, Harvard Director, The Woods Hole Research Center Co-Chair, National Commission on Energy PolicyRemarks at the Conference on New Prospects for Climate-Change RegulationHarvard Law School, 10 March 2006Outline of these remarks• The role of energy in the climate problem• The role of climate in the energy problem• Technical & policy options for reducing climate-change impacts• How big is the challenge our portfolio of measures must meet?• US national energy-climate policy to date• The growing pressures for changeThe role of energy in the climate-change problemMost of the positive forcing comes from civilization’s energy system.Among these forcings…CO2 is the most important; its relative importance is growing with time;and it’s the most difficult to reduce.CO2 emissions, CO2 concentrations, and temperatureMost of the CO2 emissions come from fossil-fuel burning.World Energy 1850-20000501001502002503003504004505001850 1875 1900 1925 1950 1975 2000YearEJ/yearGasOilCoalNuclearHydro +BiomassMost energy growth in modern times came from fossil fuel. In 2000 80% of civilization’s energy came from CO2-emitting oil, coal, and gas.Source: EIA Internat’l Energy Outlook 2003The largest CO2 emissions come from oil, with coal a close second.Reducing CO2emissions from the fossil-fuel system by changing technologies is difficult because…•CO2is not a trace-contaminant from fuel burning; it’s a principal combustion product.Each ton of coal burned Æ three tons of CO2• Most low-CO2and no-CO2energy alternatives are costlier than the fossil-fuel technologies that dominate today’s energy system.Higher fossil-fuel costs could change this, but investors must be convinced the costs will stayhigh.• Even if climate-friendly alternatives are economically competitive, the rate at which they can penetrate is limited by the slow turnover time of energy faciities.World energy system ≈ $12T investment that turns over in 30-40 years.The role of climate change in the energy problemThe challenges for energy policy are many:ECONOMIC• reliably meet fuel & electricity needs of a growing economy• limit consumer costs of energy• limit costs & vulnerabilities from imported oil• help provide energy basis for economic growth elsewhereENVIRONMENTAL• improve urban and regional air quality• avoid nuclear-reactor accidents & waste-mgmt mishaps• limit impacts of energy development on fragile ecosystems• limit greenhouse-gas contribution to climate-change risksHOMELAND AND NATIONAL SECURITY• minimize dangers of conflict over oil & gas resources• avoid spread of nuclear weapons from nuclear energy• reduce vulnerability of energy systems to terrorist attack• avoid energy blunders that perpetuate or create deprivationWhy is this difficult?• Often the objectives are in conflict, e.g.,– cost reduction vs reliability, environmental protection– domestic fossil-fuel production vs environment– nuclear energy production vs reducing risks of accidents & terrorism• All energy options have limitations – oil & gas… not enough resources?– coal, tar sands, oil shale… not enough atmosphere?– biomass… not enough land?– wind & hydro… not enough sites?– photovoltaics… too expensive?– nuclear fission… too unforgiving?– nuclear fusion… too difficult?– hydrogen… an energy sink, not a source– end-use efficiency… needs end-users who are informed& paying attentionThe two hardest pieces• Reducing economic & foreign-policy risks from oil & gas dependence despite transport sector’s soaring appetite for liquid fuel and rising gas demand for industry & electricity generation.• Providing the affordable energy for sustainable prosperity without wrecking global climate with greenhouse gases from fossil-fuel use.The second problem is harder, not least because some of the most obvious ways to solve the oil & gas problem make the climate problem worse.So…• Energy is the centerpiece of the climate problemand• Climate is the centerpiece of the energy problemThere is no sensible energy policy without a sensible climate policy, and vice versa.What are the options for reducingthe impacts of climate change?Can other approaches avoid the need to reduce CO2emissions?• Remove CO2from the atmosphere? – Some biological approaches may be worthwhile but are far from enough– Technological approaches are too costly• “Engineer” the climate to compensate for the extra CO2? (e.g. orbiting reflectors)– Efficacy, cost, side effects are big concerns• Adapt to whatever climate changes come? (e.g., dams, dikes, altered agricultural practices)– We are, we will, we must; but adaptation gets costlier & less effective as climate changes get bigger.Options for reducing CO2emissionsThe emissions arise from a 4-fold product…C = P x GDP / P x E / GDP x C / Ewhere C = carbon content of emitted CO2 (kilograms),and the four contributing factors are P = population, personsGDP / P = economic activity per person, $/persE / GDP = energy intensity of economic activity, GJ/$C / E = carbon intensity of energy supply, kgC/GJFor example, in the year 2000, the world figures were…6.1x109pers x $7400/pers x 0.01 GJ/$ x 14 kgC/GJ=