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Central Role of CompositionCentral Role of Composition 1) Crude rates heavily influenced by composition of population a. Especially true of death rates 2) Substantive importance of composition a. Policy implications b. Implications for growth (momentum) 3) Main focus of applied demographic research a. market research b. local govt. planningNatural Increase and TFR in Japan, 1950-2002-2004006008001,0001,2001,4001,600195019521954195619581960196219641966196819701972197419761978198019821984198619881990199219941996199820002002Natural Increase (1,000)0.00 0.50 1.00 1.50 2.00 2.50 3.00 3.50 4.00 TFRNat. Inc. TFRPopulation Size and Fertility Rates in Italy, 1992-200356,200,00056,400,00056,600,00056,800,00057,000,00057,200,00057,400,00057,600,00057,800,00058,000,00058,200,0001992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003Population11.11.21.31.41.51.61.71.81.92TFRPopulation TFRBasic measures of population composition 1) Population pyramids 2) Sex ratios 3) Aging index, dependency ratios 4) Mean age, etc. 5) Typically from census data 6) Measurement error – review a. Heaping, digit preference, misreporting b. Whipple’s index, studies of AA-W “crossover”Reciprocal influences of vital rates and population age composition 1) Births and deaths (and migrations) do not occur with equal probability for all people 2) Current (and future) age composition reflect past trends in vital rates a. Baby booms, fertility decline, famine, war, immigration, etc. (China as an extreme ex.) b. How does a population get older? 3) Current age composition will influence future vital ratesTypical age patterns 1) High fertility – rapid growth 2) Fertility decline 3) Low fertility – stable population 4) Theoretically stationary population in long-run 5) Persistency of age structure a. population momentum b. change in infant mortality and fertility c. implications for projectionsSex Ratio 1) (M ÷ F) x 100 2) 105 at birth normally 3) Can be very low at older ages 4) Relevance for marriage, etc. a. Marriage squeeze 5) Determined by a. Sex ratio at birth b. Sex differences in mortality c. Sex differences in migrationOther measures of age structure 1) Aging index = (P65+÷P) x 100 a. Monaco 22, Japan 20 b. UAE 1, African countries 2 2) Proportion children = (P≤15÷P) x 100 a. Uganda 51, Monaco 13, Japan 14 3) Dependency ratio [(P0-14+P65+)÷P15-64] x 100 4) Old age dependency ratio 5) Child dependency ratio6) Mean age = NXn1xx∑= 7) Median age = fi*F2Nl−+3) CDR is a function of mortality levels and population composition Impact of composition on crude rates 2) 000,1*PP*PDCDRx1000xxx=∑+= 4) 000,1*PP*PBCBRx1000xxx=∑+= 1) CDR= (D ÷ P) *


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UW-Madison SOC 674 - Central Role of Composition

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