Department of Economics Fall 2010University of California Economics 100BBerkeley Professor OlneyHandout for August 31, 2010: Today's EconomyData are taken from 2010 Economic Report of the President (ER, Table ...; accessed at http://www.gpoaccess.gov/eop/download.html), 2009 Statistical Abstract (SA, Table #..; accessed athttp://www.census.gov/prod/www/abs/statab2006_2009.html), and from government web sites www.bls.gov, www.bea.gov, and www.federalreserve.gov.1. Real GDP Growth Rate (ER, Table B4 & bea.gov)1960s 4.4 % 2000-04 2.4% 2008 0.4%1970s 3.3 % 2005 2.9 % 2009 -2.4%1980s 3.1 % 2006 2.7 % 2010:I 3.7 %1990s 3.1 % 2007 2.1 % 2010:II 1.6 %2. Unemployment (ER, Table B42 & bls.gov)1970s 6.2 % 2005 5.1 % 2009 9.3 %1980s 7.3 % 2006 4.6 % Jul 2010 9.5 %1990s 5.8% 2007 4.6 %2000-04 5.2% 2008 5.8 %3. Inflation & Deflation (ER, Table B63 & bls.gov)CPI (Year to Year)CPI (Year to Year)1970s 7.1 % 2006 3.2 %1980s 5.0 % 2007 2.8 %1990s 3.0 % 2008 3.8 %2000-04 2.6 % 2009 -0.4% (deflation)2005 3.4 % 2010 1.0% (July to July)4. Federal Budget Deficit (-) or Surplus (+) (ER, Table B80; cbo.gov; Year ends Sept 30)2000 + $236 billion 2004 – $413 billion 2008 – $459 billion2001 + $128 billion 2005 – $318 billion 2009 – $1,413 billion2002 – $158 billion 2006 – $248 billion 2010est– $1,342 billion2003 – $378 billion 2007 – $162 billion 2011est– $1,066 billionDebt held by the public as oftoday$8.8 trillion 2012est– $ 665 billionTotal debt outstanding $13.4 trillion5. Nominal U.S. Treasury Interest Rates (ER, Table B73 & federalreserve.gov)3-mo 10-yr 3-mo 10-yr1980s 8.85 % 10.59 % 2006 4.73 % 4.80 %1990s 4.88 % 6.67 % 2007 4.36 % 4.63 %2000-04 2.66 % 4.79 % 2008 1.37 % 3.66 %2005 3.16 % 4.29 % 2009 0.16 % 3.26 % Jul 2010 0.16 % 3.01 %6. Personal Saving Rates (ER, Table B30 & bea.gov)1960s 8.3 % 2000-04 3.2 % 2008 4.1 %1970s 9.6 % 2005 1.4 % 2009 5.9 %1980s 8.6 % 2006 2.4 % 2010 Jun 6.4%1990s 5.5 % 2007 2.1 %7. Labor Productivity Growth Rate (ER, Table B50 & bls.gov)all nonfarmbusinessmanufacturingonlyall nonfarmbusinessmanufacturingonly1960s 2.8 % 2.8 % 2005 1.7 % 4.8 %1970s 1.9 % 2.9 % 2006 0.9 % 1.0 %1980s 1.0 % 2.8 % 2007 1.8 % 3.2 %1990s 1.8 % 3.7 % 2008 1.0 % -0.7 %2000-04 3.5 % 4.2 % 2009 3.5 % 2.0 %2010:II -0.9 % 4.5 %8. Income Inequality (share of total income received by top 20 % of families, and by bottom 20 % and income limit (2008 dollars) of top and bottom 20%, census.gov/hhes/www/income/data/historical)top 20% bottom 20% ratioShareIncome Above Share Income Below of $2008 47.8 % $113,205 4.0 % $27,800 4.12000 47.7 % $114,245 4.3 % $30,007 3.81990 44.3 % $98,198 4.6 % $26,903 3.71980 41.1 % $86,576 5.3 % $25,873 3.39. Real Median Family Income (2008 $) (census.gov/hhes/www/income/data/historical)2008 $61,521. (-0.4 % annually since 2000)2000 $63,430. (+1.2 % annually since 1990)1990 $56,458. (+0.8 % annually since 1980)1980 $52,301. (+0.7 % annually since 1970)1970 $48,825. (+3.2 % annually since 1960)10. Poverty Rates (ER, Table B33)Female-headed familiesAll families People in poverty2008 28.7 % (4.2 million) 10.3 % (8.1 million) 13.2 % (39.8 million)2000 26.4 % (3.5 million) 9.2 % (6.8 million) 11.3 % (31.6 million)1990 33.4 % (3.8 million) 10.7 % (7.1 million) 13.5 % (33.8 million)1979 30.4 % (2.6 million) 9.2 % (5.5 million) 11.7 % (26.3 million)Total U.S. population in 2010 310 million.Department of Economics Fall 2010University of California, Berkeley Professor OlneyToday’s Economy 8/31/2010 Page 2Figure 1 Real GDP & trend lines, 1900-2009Figure 2 Unemployment Rate, 1900-2010Figure 3 Inflation Rate, 1900-2010Figure 4 Federal Government Deficits, 1971-2012Department of Economics Fall 2010University of California, Berkeley Professor OlneyToday’s Economy 8/31/2010 Page 3Figure 5 Federal Government Debt, 1939-2012Figure 6 Interest Rates, 1965-2010Figure 7 Personal Saving Rate, 1950-2010Figure 8 Productivity Growth Rates, 1961-2010Department of Economics Fall 2010University of California, Berkeley Professor OlneyToday’s Economy 8/31/2010 Page 4Figure 9 Goods versus Services, 1950-2010Gini Coefficient for Family Income, 1950-20080.0000.1000.2000.3000.4000.5001950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000Figure 10 Gini Coefficient for Family IncomeFigure 11 Real Median Family Income, 1960-2008Figure 12 C, I, G as a % of GDP,
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